Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo's approach has not proven to solve this.

Not yet but I am hopeful:
1) Waymo Driver is generalizing well. And Waymo has tested recently in Washington DC, Miami, Orlando, and now Atlanta. Waymo says they plan to start driverless testing in Atlanta.
2) The 6th Gen hardware on the Zeekr will be much cheaper. Both the hardware and the Zeekr vehicle will be much more affordable.
3) 50k people signed up on the waitlist for LA on just the first day. So I don't think Waymo has any problem with demand.

Put it all together and it looks good for Waymo. They continue to generalize the Waymo Driver to do driverless in any city. They deploy a mass market affordable robotaxi vehicle and they get lots of customers. They can scale with that.

You are correct that no tech has. Waymo being "closest" is nothing but wild speculation.

Not speculation. I would say Waymo is closest since they have the most driverless miles and have an affordable robotaxi coming at the end of this year.

And if Waymo is not closest, who is? Tesla? Tesla FSD Supervised is not ready for driverless. Tesla may announce an affordable robotaxi platform on 8/8 but they would need to finish prototyping, validate, and produce it and achieve driverless. Not to mention Tesla would need to apply for permits to launch a robotaxi service in CA which can take months to years. The whole process will take a long time. Waymo already has a robotaxi service running 24/7 in 3 cities! Zoox? Zoox is only testing their vehicle at small scale in a tiny 1 mile area. Cruise? Cruise is shut down and needs to relaunch. The only company with actual driverless in multiple cities, and an affordable robotaxi vehicle nearing mass production is Waymo.

 

[spacecoin]

You are correct that no tech has. Waymo being "closest" is nothing but wild speculation.

What? it’s an observable fact. You’re starting to look like a troll, tbh. Please argue based on facts.

 

[brkaus]

is Waymo making piles of money on the services they offer so far?

 

[diplomat33]

is Waymo making piles of money on the services they offer so far?

Not yet but they will when they start scaling the cheaper robotaxi.

 

[spacecoin]

is Waymo making piles of money on the services they offer so far?

Unknown, probably not break even just yet. Clearly Tesla is eager to compete for a share of this unprofitable cake.

 

[ThomasD]

Waymo has been testing on and off in Miami for several years and they still haven't transported the general public anywhere in the City yet.

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo has been testing on and off in Miami for several years and they still haven't transported the general public anywhere in the City yet.

That testing was not for deploying a service to the general public. It was just testing to help them improve driving in rain.

 

[Joey D]

Not yet but I am hopeful:
1) Waymo Driver is generalizing well. And Waymo has tested recently in Washington DC, Miami, Orlando, and now Atlanta. Waymo says they plan to start driverless testing in Atlanta.
2) The 6th Gen hardware on the Zeekr will be much cheaper. Both the hardware and the Zeekr vehicle will be much more affordable.
3) 50k people signed up on the waitlist for LA on just the first day. So I don't think Waymo has any problem with demand.

Put it all together and it looks good for Waymo. They continue to generalize the Waymo Driver to do driverless in any city. They deploy a mass market affordable robotaxi vehicle and they get lots of customers. They can scale with that.



Not speculation. I would say Waymo is closest since they have the most driverless miles and have an affordable robotaxi coming.

It's still speculation. Lots of "planning to"..."will be", etc. Same goes for Tesla.

The two approaches (Tesla and Waymo) are vastly different. Waymo will have a much more methodical (albeit slow) rollout of "Level 4 taxis". I'm still not sure if they are even attempting for their ODD to include "non urban" areas. If they are not targeting that...it obviously won't happen. Telsa, if their approach proves successful, will have a much more disjointed roll-out. They will go from essentially "Level 2 ADAS or level 3 autonomy" to "Level 4 capable" in a wide geographic area essentially overnight.

Who is closest to having Level 4 autonomy with highly restricted ODD while gradually reducing those ODD restrictions (including geography)? Waymo of course.

Who is closest to have Level 4 autonomy with a vastly lower set of ODD restrictions? Speculation...and likely depends on what kinds of restrictions we're talking about.

 

[Joey D]

What? it’s an observable fact. You’re starting to look like a troll, tbh. Please argue based on facts.

Learn the difference between "extrapolation based on known facts" and "facts."

 

[JulienW]

That testing was not for deploying a service to the general public. It was just testing to help them improve driving in rain.

Just for shi$ts and giggles I downloaded the Waymo App yesterday and sent Feedback asking for a test ride. Of course I don't expect anything but did send a pic of the car proving I saw a Waymo testing and interested.

 

[spacecoin]

Learn the difference between "extrapolation based on known facts" and "facts."

Troll is starting to look like a ”fact” unfortunately.

 

[brkaus]

Unknown, probably not break even just yet. Clearly Tesla is eager to compete for a share of this unprofitable cake.

That’s kinda what I’m wondering about. I mean is it going to change the world and suddenly people will stop buying cars? I doubt it.

 

[spacecoin]

That’s kinda what I’m wondering about. I mean is it going to change the world and suddenly people will stop buying cars? I doubt it.

It won't in any meaningful way in 20 years at least, if ever. Global current ride hailing revenue is plenty to fight over though.

 

[Dewg]

Not yet but they will when they start scaling the cheaper robotaxi.

I'm reminded of a quote from West Wing about drug pricing:

First guy: “Those pills cost them 4 cents to make.” Second guy: “That’s not true. The second pill costs them four cents, the first pill costs them $1 billion dollars.”

Same for Waymo - we're still working on the 1st pill - the 2nd pill will be much cheaper.

 

[QtownTaxiGreg]

It won't in any meaningful way in 20 years at least, if ever. Global current ride hailing revenue is plenty to fight over though.

Has Uber made any profit yet? They would if they were in cahoots with the winner of the race to actual robocab.

 

[kpanda17]

Tonight post 12.3.4 UG SFSD drive
I did not expect a difference, but two edge cases gone

Amazing, feel by end of year we will be extremely close to true automation

 

[brkaus]

Has Uber made any profit yet? They would if they were in cahoots with the winner of the race to actual robocab.

Robocab doesn’t want to share $$ with Uber.

 

[OxBrew]

Has Uber made any profit yet? They would if they were in cahoots with the winner of the race to actual robocab.

Well they shut down their entire new mobility effort 4 years ago, including their self driving effort.

Apparently the had a profit of over $1B in 2023 for the first time ever.

 

[DanCar]

RoboTaxi will be built to last a long time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780694674300141678

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780705156830818676

 

[mborkow]

I see tons of Waymo vehicles driving around San Francisco every weekend. How can it be argued that they don’t have a nice sized lead over Tesla (that have none) at this time? Any argument otherwise feels specious, at best.