The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I am assuming that, over time, Musk's standards are being absorbed and adopted by the people who work with him. I don't see how anyone would last too long on the team if that weren't the case.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
I tend to agree with what you said to an extent. I would be surprised if Elon did not have a say in the final design, however I would also be surprised if the delays were due to him not being available. More likely the delays are due to trying to get every detail right.
Here is what Elon said about X delay, quote from transcript below. It makes sense.
"Yes, there’s no question we’re delayed on the Model X, although that’s I wouldn’t say particularly new information. Relative to our earlier forecast, we had to spend a lot more time making sure we got the Model S right, and it took longer to get to some of the international markets and what not. So it just didn’t make sense for us to be focusing on Model X if we didn’t have our Model S house in order. I think we're in pretty good shape on the S front, so our focus is very heavily on the X, and just making sure it's a phenomenal product. And, we expect to be varying production cars roughly Q2 next year.
We'll have the production design articles, I guess beta articles or production-release candidates around the end of this year, but we want to make sure we've got a decent period of validation with those release-candidate vehicles, because the production ramp for Model X will be much greater than for S, so much deeper. So with S we have quite a shallow production ramp, start off real slow and as we encountered issues we were able to correct them without having a large number of cars in production on the roads.
With X it's going to be sharp ramp, which means we really need to make sure that we've properly validated issues and made sure in all temperatures and climates and road types that the car is really solid before ramping up production. Otherwise, we would risk having a recall or a bad customer experience."
"Yes, there’s no question we’re delayed on the Model X, although that’s I wouldn’t say particularly new information. Relative to our earlier forecast, we had to spend a lot more time making sure we got the Model S right, and it took longer to get to some of the international markets and what not. So it just didn’t make sense for us to be focusing on Model X if we didn’t have our Model S house in order. I think we're in pretty good shape on the S front, so our focus is very heavily on the X, and just making sure it's a phenomenal product. And, we expect to be varying production cars roughly Q2 next year.
We'll have the production design articles, I guess beta articles or production-release candidates around the end of this year, but we want to make sure we've got a decent period of validation with those release-candidate vehicles, because the production ramp for Model X will be much greater than for S, so much deeper. So with S we have quite a shallow production ramp, start off real slow and as we encountered issues we were able to correct them without having a large number of cars in production on the roads.
With X it's going to be sharp ramp, which means we really need to make sure that we've properly validated issues and made sure in all temperatures and climates and road types that the car is really solid before ramping up production. Otherwise, we would risk having a recall or a bad customer experience."
StapleGun
Member
I completely agree with you on #2 and #3. And I'll add in one more reason, Elon's incentive for 30% margins for 4 consecutive quarters. I think he might see a way to get this with Q3'14-Q2'15 so long as ModelX volume isn't too much in Q2'14. I doubt this is a major reason for the delay, battery constraint is probably the biggest single factor, but it could be something on his mind.
As a Tesla fan I want to see the Model X out ASAP, but as an investor it's just not a big deal to me right now.
In my opinion Tesla's delay of the Model X (ie., to Q2 of 2014) isn't an issue.
Tesla originally delayed the Model X since it made business sense. Not only could they focus on Model S scaling, service centers, stores, superchargers, etc but they could also make the Model X better by having more development time. Further, by delaying Model X to 2014 they could also smoothen out the production ramp of the S/X platform, so it's a smoother ramp until Gen3. This makes sense on most all fronts.
The main reason for Tesla's original delay of the Model X was because Model S demand was much greater than anticipated. This allowed them the opportunity to focus longer on the S. It also allows them to make the X better, and thus X sales will likely be higher than their original expectations.
Now I do think Model X slipped a few months further than their original delay, but that's because Tesla is in a position to allow that. It's fairly inconsequential if the Model X comes out in Q1 2014 or Q2 2014. The main reason it doesn't matter is because Tesla is still scaling Model S production and trying to meet demand.
Tesla originally delayed the Model X since it made business sense. Not only could they focus on Model S scaling, service centers, stores, superchargers, etc but they could also make the Model X better by having more development time. Further, by delaying Model X to 2014 they could also smoothen out the production ramp of the S/X platform, so it's a smoother ramp until Gen3. This makes sense on most all fronts.
The main reason for Tesla's original delay of the Model X was because Model S demand was much greater than anticipated. This allowed them the opportunity to focus longer on the S. It also allows them to make the X better, and thus X sales will likely be higher than their original expectations.
Now I do think Model X slipped a few months further than their original delay, but that's because Tesla is in a position to allow that. It's fairly inconsequential if the Model X comes out in Q1 2014 or Q2 2014. The main reason it doesn't matter is because Tesla is still scaling Model S production and trying to meet demand.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Chickenlittle
Banned
NigelM
Recovering Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It contained a quote as well: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7777-snippiness?p=656452&viewfull=1#post656452
Thanks for putting that up JRP3...I always saw the snappiness posts being removed and never bothered to look for the removed posts but this time I clicked on your link and read and agree that there are definitely some people on here hired by shorts as trolls to try and deceive us with international lies...then there are also normal honest people shorting the stock who state valid opinions...but sometimes it is hard to know the difference and reading some of the snappiness thread helped me see the line.
RationalOptimist
Member
It was immediately clear on reading it that that brilliant Oatmeal piece would boost demand for the model S. And here's proof (& also a good guide to the Tesla's ingenious leasing plans). Tesla Continues To Roll Out Tax Strategies For Consumers - Forbes
davecolene0606
Member
What most analysis seems to miss on the Gigafacotry... and Teslas continued success
Every article I have read on the Gigafactory entirely misses the return stream of packs coming back to the factory.
Seems to me that this is a huge miss when calculating the economics of the factory as well as Teslas ability to hit the price point to make GenIII a huge success.
Additionally, pack/cell reuse and production for home power storage not to mention additional Superchargers is also ignored by most journalists/analysists.
These 2 fundamental aspects of Gigafactory economics are yet one more reason the long term success of TSLA and Tesla continues to firm up and another reason to essentially blow off any conventional guidance. I mean, what am I missing here all this stuff is published material and is a giant portion of lowering the bottom costs here.
Fire away:smile:
Every article I have read on the Gigafactory entirely misses the return stream of packs coming back to the factory.
Seems to me that this is a huge miss when calculating the economics of the factory as well as Teslas ability to hit the price point to make GenIII a huge success.
Additionally, pack/cell reuse and production for home power storage not to mention additional Superchargers is also ignored by most journalists/analysists.
These 2 fundamental aspects of Gigafactory economics are yet one more reason the long term success of TSLA and Tesla continues to firm up and another reason to essentially blow off any conventional guidance. I mean, what am I missing here all this stuff is published material and is a giant portion of lowering the bottom costs here.
Fire away:smile:
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Recycling packs won't have a material impact on the gigafactory until probably 10 years from now since packs will last likely at least 8-10 years. And when gigafactory starts recycling packs it will be in small numbers as not many Model Ss are being sold currently compared to the yearly output of gigafactory.
I know Model s battery's charge cycle is 3000 until 80% of total capacity. Probably battery packs will last at least 20 years.
I am convinced the market is under estimating renewable energy storage for "Demand Reduction". Utility demand charging is exorbitant.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Every article I have read on the Gigafactory entirely misses the return stream of packs coming back to the factory.
Seems to me that this is a huge miss when calculating the economics of the factory as well as Teslas ability to hit the price point to make GenIII a huge success.
As a recycling enthusiast it isn't lost on me either; it will just take time before serious numbers of old packs end up going back to the factory.
However, Tesla have taken an awesome position with regard to battery recycling, and this shouldn't be passed over. Check out J.B's comments here -
JB Straubel | Energy@Stanford SLAC 2013 - YouTube
When the world is running fully on electric cars, and all batteries are being recycled, it'll significantly reduce the amount of stuff being dug out of the ground... and waste being put into the ground.
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