I was being sarcastic. I don't think making minor tweaks to ICE engines will help them in the long-run against EVs. And the fact that "Nexcel" is coming in maybe five years makes its all the more laughable.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
I was being sarcastic. I don't think making minor tweaks to ICE engines will help them in the long-run against EVs. And the fact that "Nexcel" is coming in maybe five years makes its all the more laughable.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
While I have been sceptic during the last years about Germany introducing subsidies for BEVs it looks like times are changing because of the exhaust fraud.
German government reported to talk about:
- making exhaust rules stricter
- enabeling already existing fine dust driving ban areas in cities for NOx emissions
- introducing direct subsidies for sales of BEVs to reduce their sticker price
We will see how this pans out as the German government will decide on these kind of measuers end of this year.
(link, link)
German government reported to talk about:
- making exhaust rules stricter
- enabeling already existing fine dust driving ban areas in cities for NOx emissions
- introducing direct subsidies for sales of BEVs to reduce their sticker price
We will see how this pans out as the German government will decide on these kind of measuers end of this year.
(link, link)
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Volkswagen Group exhaust gate keeps exploding, quick update:
- Now up to 30 persons of middle and upper management involved in this multi-year fraud (link)
- Diesel ICE EA189 was checked several times during several years in production in different markets around the world
- Last week Volkswagen Group CEO Matthias Mueller said "only a small group of persons involved in the fraud" is no longer valid.
- European Union gave Volkswagen a 3bn low interest credit during the last years for development of environmental friendly engines to reduce EU CO2 emissions, currently investigating if Volkswagen has to pay back this money
- Some Volkswagen vehicles sold in Germany during so called "Abwrackprämie" some years ago do not qualify for EURO4 exhaust rules. Germany currently investigating if Volkswagen Group has to pay back some subsidies they received for these sales during that time.
- Now up to 30 persons of middle and upper management involved in this multi-year fraud (link)
- Diesel ICE EA189 was checked several times during several years in production in different markets around the world
- Last week Volkswagen Group CEO Matthias Mueller said "only a small group of persons involved in the fraud" is no longer valid.
- European Union gave Volkswagen a 3bn low interest credit during the last years for development of environmental friendly engines to reduce EU CO2 emissions, currently investigating if Volkswagen has to pay back this money
- Some Volkswagen vehicles sold in Germany during so called "Abwrackprämie" some years ago do not qualify for EURO4 exhaust rules. Germany currently investigating if Volkswagen Group has to pay back some subsidies they received for these sales during that time.
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Thank's for the hint!
Added quote for the most relevant part.
Link works here with firefox!
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I applaud the German government for not having any conflict of interest in this and cracking down on VW hard. I would not have expected this from any government in the world. It might hurt now, but certain people are attracted to this justice.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I have to admitt that the German federal state of Niedersachsen owns about 20.2% of Volkswagen Group (google translate link, btw the follwoing three links are the same links as this one as the same article is the source for the follwoing statments).
There is a good reason for that and there is quick look back in history needed to understand that.
Volkswagen Group was founded in 1938/1939 in the city of Fallersleben in Germany on request of Nazi Adolf Hitler with the families of both Porsche and Piech being involved heavily and from the beginning (google translate link). E.g. Ferdinand Porsche at the front right on this image taken during laying of the foundation stone of the Volkswagen plant by Nazi Adolf Hitler (May 26, 1938):
Use of financial assets of battered unions and forced labor have been the financial basis of Volkswagen company during the Third Reich (google translate link). Volkswagen produced a lot of military stuff like even V1 rocket during the war.
After World War II, Volkswagen Group was restructured as a stock corporation with the German federal state of Niedersachsen owning a bit more than 20% of the Volkswagen Group shares. Together with a spechial 'Volkswagen law' the German federal state of Niedersachsen is able to block management decisions initiated by other members of the Volkswagen Group board of management (google translate link) in order to keep an eye on the company.
I have to admit that I did not remember all these details, please read here to get more details (maybe you don't, as this is really ugly Nazi stuff).
That being said I do not really know how German government officials will behave during the next days weeks.
German minister for economics Gabriel e.g. said that he fears about workers at Volkswagen Group now afraid to lose their jobs.
Gabriel already mentioned that maybe German government will help Volkswagen Groupby paying subsidies in form of German 'Kurzarbeitgeld' (what would be for the wrong reasons, obviously) to get through this trouble, we will see.
I have the impression that some people realized that this mess simply got way too big to be ignored by the German government.
In fact this is the biggest official recall by German KBA authorites ever.
News:
- In France authorities started investigations with an unannounced visit at the local French headquarters in northern France in 'Villers-Cotterêts' and 'Roissy' north of Paris last Friday (google translate link). Investigators took documents and hard discs with them. 1 million diesel vehicles with ICE EA-189 sold in France.
- As it became known during the weekend, Volkswagen Group violated European law, thus other European countries are expected to join France during the next days. German Minister for Federal Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt informed his 31 European counterparts with a letter about these news. - Volkswagen Group's exhaust switch is officially violating article of the EU Regulation no. 715/2007. Volkswagen Group now has to expect legal consequences, claims for damage and criminal proceedings throughout Europe.
- Biggest issue might be that German authority KBA is now able to cancel the certificate of registration for the vehicles already on the road!
- The German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) now ordered a mandatory recall for all VW vehicles with manipulated engine software in Germany.
- German authorities found that diesel ICE (and even the top of the line EURO6 diesel ICE) pollute the environment by a factor of a multiple more when used under full throttle than allowed, exhaust cleaning simply reduced under full throttle (google translate link):
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
What follows will be a test of integrity. We are all watching.
I paid a €50 fine for not having the right metro ticket in Berlin but that's because I understand ow the law is black and white there. If this is not resolved with justice in mind and that all is fair. My lerception of German gov fairness will change.
Interesting- a few weeks ago I would have said that Tesla was the "hottest" stock out there but it looks like several analysts are turning to the sidelines... https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla There are more analysts who are bearish/neutral on the stock than there are bullish!
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
erha
Member
I did some quick back of the napkin calculations that I wanted to share. Remember Elon Musk saying that Tesla could match Apple's market cap. in 2025? If that actually turns out to be true, we can try to look on some numbers of how good Tesla is as an investment.
Todays market cap:
TSLA: ~28 B USD
AAPL: ~650 B USD
Over ten years, that means your average return is ~37 % each year.
If you invest 100 000 USD today, you'll have: 2.33 M USD in 2025.
But, what if you could keep that 37 % for 50 years. (Some crazy speculations here). Then you would be the wealthiest man on earth by far with 686 B USD. Yeah, I know, there is no way you will get 37 % for 50 years. And most of us will probably not be here in 50 years. But, there is actually a possibility that we can get 37 % for 10 years. Good luck!
Todays market cap:
TSLA: ~28 B USD
AAPL: ~650 B USD
Over ten years, that means your average return is ~37 % each year.
If you invest 100 000 USD today, you'll have: 2.33 M USD in 2025.
But, what if you could keep that 37 % for 50 years. (Some crazy speculations here). Then you would be the wealthiest man on earth by far with 686 B USD. Yeah, I know, there is no way you will get 37 % for 50 years. And most of us will probably not be here in 50 years. But, there is actually a possibility that we can get 37 % for 10 years. Good luck!
erha
Member
Thanks, Newb. I remember reading about that a year or so back. I need to look more into it
It would be cool to make an app or something that tells you if it is a good buying opportunity according to the Blind Faith Price Target. (Somebody might have done this already.)Now pencil out the production capacity Tesla would need to build by 2025. Estimate the capital and time needed to add capacity. If Tesla could contract with Foxconn to assemble millions of cars, then they certainly could have an enormous market cap by 2025.
Apple was able to take the phone market from Nokia in just a couple of years due to the nature of consumer electronics. Tesla already has the market cap of a fairly large auto manufacturer. Is making 300,000 cars in 2020 good enough to even maintain the current price?
For these reason, I don't believe the correct strategy for Tesla is to build the $35K car anymore. Being the Audi of EV is the strategy that probably maximizes shareholder value. They can't scale to be the Toyota of EV with a Lexus division. Toyota is likely to be the Toyota of EV.
I don't think it is in Tesla's DNA to be an economy car builder
Declare victory with the Bolt, and build upscale EV that push the envelope. A smaller Model S is what the world wants to buy. A $35,000 model 3 that sells well will tie up capacity for years that Tesla could use to build cars with better margins.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You seem to be ignoring the fact that the ASP for the 3 will be much higher than $35K, the SUV/CUV version will have even higher margins, and finally, the 3 platform will provide the base for the next version of the Roadster, with probably their highest margins ever. You've left out significant portions of the total plan.
Tesla is not about making money. Making money, for them, is a consequence of making compelling vehicles and products. From the very beginning, when it comes to vehicles, they have said they plan on moving from the top (expensive) to the mass market. The Model 3 will be mass market since it will sell 500K vehicles a year, that doesn't mean that it will be an economy car like the Bolt and the Leaf 2.0. The Model 3 has been said to go up against a 3 series BMW (which sells 500K a year) which is also a premium vehicle.
Next I'm repeating something I've mentioned before but I really doubt that Tesla wants to be GM, Ford, or Toyota. If you build tens of millions of cars a year you will be so big that you will lose the ability to innovate as much as Tesla seems to want to do. A company that large becomes too bureaucratic. It would make sense if Tesla focused on building compelling vehicles that are considered the very best in their class such as the Model S has done and soon the Model X. The vehicles don't have to be the least expensive, just compelling. If that leads to selling millions then I'm sure Tesla will not be against it but I would be shocked if that is their plan.
I presume that half the model 3 will be in the 35-40K range. As long as the model 3 is production constrained, those cars are taking up slots can can could be used to produce high margin cars. If the EV market "takes off" Tesla will likely be production constrained for years.
Is Tesla really a mass market company? I don't see the resources. Are tesla stores and the supercharger network really setup to scale fast in units sales, assuming Tesla is even capable of scaling production to keep up with an EV boom?
If Apple produces a car with a steering wheel, it won't be a to compete with the Bolt. It will be a mid level car. Apple is a premium product.
Tesla is currently pursuing a goldilocks strategy: That the EV market is good enough to stimulate demand for hundreds of thousands of cars, but not so strong as to bring in the majors into EV a big way.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Very good points. If Tesla become the Toyota of EV, it will be nice but the mission will be a failure. What tesla excel at is creating its own category. The comparison with apple of cars is more correct. It will probably be showing the mass market something that they'd want to own that they didn't before.
Who thought the poor masses would fork out $500 for a smart phone before the iphone.
Model 3 will be a EV, Autopilot, sportscar.
My guess is that it'll be even more of a big hit once autopilot enables people to be permanently on the move instead of needing a residence. Then we all have to ponder the worth of owing a $300 000 condo vs a $35000 car.
In my city, there's already a big crowd of people living in cars. Autopilot, super charger access will solve a lot of problems. As a free nomad, I'd like to program my car to go to another city at night and stay on highway + auto charge. Wakeup in another city work out and then boot up my computer to work.
10~20 years. Too late for me to enjoy, but this will happen.
Presumably Tesla will do what they've pretty much always done - prioritize the production of higher margin cars. Buyers of lower margin cars may be subjected to longer wait times. However, I don't think the market for the Model S and Model X is going to be nearly large enough to absorb all production capacity. Further, the correct response to a sustained production backlog is to find ways to increase production, not produce fewer models.
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