June EV Sales

[Lloyd]

+1 But to say that cost of ownership will be zero (or even close to zero) is naive.

At the very least a cost per mile for battery replacement needs to be factored, it will not be free, and we know that they do not last forever. EV proponents tend to ignore this. If a battery lasts 250,000 miles is that reasonable? If is costs $20,000 to replace it at that time is that reasonable? Then 8 cents per mile is a reasonable number for the batttery.

 

[hcsharp]

As far as the maintenance of a Model S over a comparable car; I've said this before here, and some don't want to see it, but there won't be that much difference, over the term that these types of buyers keep cars like this. ...

You may be right but not for the reasons you mentioned IMHO. For my own car history, the lion's share of maintenance and repair costs have been for brakes, exhaust/pollution control system, and fluid changes (mostly oil). Those are eliminated on an EV. The brakes are wearing out on my Roadster only because I make a point of using them to keep the rotors from rusting and loading up the pads. They are wearing at about 1/5th the rate of my last gas powered car. I've got some new things like power electronics but I don't see that as being any more vulnerable to repairs than a gas engine.

Having said that, I have a large expensive battery that my ICE cars didn't have. And it will be expensive to replace in 10 years, probably eliminating most of the savings on other stuff. I've also talked with scientists who are working on battery technology. They have told me with strong confidence that in 5 or 6 years lithium batteries will last 20 years without losing more than 25% of capacity.

Bottom line if you include the battery you can expect maintenance to be about the same as your ICE over the next 5-10 years. Just my .02

 

[vfx]

It's clear to me that TM has a target a mile wide. I just hope they post their sales figures and don't wait for earnings announcements to cue people in. If they did show their sales figures, it would be hugely entertaining to see how quickly they overtake the EV's. If they don't, it will be a little harder, but totally doable, to figure out what cars the Model S is cannibalizing.

At 3:50 in this video Carlos talks about the amount of buyers that moved from other makers to Nissan 91% (98% in EU) they are conquest customers who traded in cars from other carmakers. The Leaf has possibly the highest conquest rate in automotive today. Later I think he talks about how the Leaf has brought over people who have never bought a Nissan before.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InJm_s3YXzo<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InJm_s3YXzo">

With Tesla, %10 of Model S buyers are Roadster owners so 9,000 down payments are conquest customers. A good start.

 

[ElSupreme]

It would be very interesting to know what fraction of Model S buyers would otherwise have bought a premium large sedan. I suspect the number is less than 50%; IOW, Tesla is expanding the category.

This is exactly what makes 20,000 cars a year seem possible to me. If you look at EV, mid/large Luxury, or even hybrid (minus the Prius) sales 20,000 units seems like a whole lot. But I would probably buy a Jetta wagon if I had to buy a car. The model S is WAY more expensive, and WAY bigger than any car I would consider otherwise.

Jerry33 has said this a few times: the Prius sold like crap for a couple of years (not really but below expectations) now it sells a stupid number a year. I think the Model S will introduce people to 'no compromises' electric driving. I think the LEAF is also doing this, but needs a tiny bit more range for the US market. The Gen III Tesla will be the next 400,000 unit a year Prius! People are scared of change.

 

[jerry33]

To add a data point, my 2004 Prius cost a few pennies under $30,000 as delivered including all taxes, etc. Over the 135,557 miles I've driven it so far gas has cost $6,084.42. Tires and dealer maintenance have cost $9,821.35. Insurance has been around $1,000/year (but that's for both Prius that I own). However, I have probably done more preventative maintenance on mine than most people do. I've replaced various pumps rather than just driving till they fail and I regularly change the transaxle fluid. Also I'm rather picky about tires so I've put on a few more sets than most--on my fifth set now. (The dealer alignment that erased half the rubber off of a set of tires in a few weeks, and removing the OE tire when I couldn't stand them any longer didn't help the costs any.)

Bottom line is there is no way the Model S will have a lower TCO than the Prius--even with the new $40,000 prices for a fully loaded one. However, to get away from the Toyota dealers and being able to drive a car for fun again (not worrying about how much gas costs) will be well worth the extra money.

 

[100thMonkey]

Interesting you mention the Jetta. We sold a 1 year old Jetta sportwagon TDI for the Leaf, mainly because the Leaf was 100% electric. We are leaning in the direction of the S but it's frankly more car than we would want ideally, it's styling, range, Leather option and premium sound are the main attractions. A jetta sportwagon style Tesla designed more as a family car would be ideal. We don't need intense acceleration or sport suspension and wheels, having something more wagon like with normal size wheels would be more ideal and hopefully cost a bit less. The X has our interest but we won't go for it unless there is a non-falcon door option... we want to be able to put a thule cargo box on top. basically in the long run we are trying to match our highlander/Jetta Sportwagon combo with long range EV versions.

This is exactly what makes 20,000 cars a year seem possible to me. If you look at EV, mid/large Luxury, or even hybrid (minus the Prius) sales 20,000 units seems like a whole lot. But I would probably buy a Jetta wagon if I had to buy a car. The model S is WAY more expensive, and WAY bigger than any car I would consider otherwise.

Jerry33 has said this a few times: the Prius sold like crap for a couple of years (not really but below expectations) now it sells a stupid number a year. I think the Model S will introduce people to 'no compromises' electric driving. I think the LEAF is also doing this, but needs a tiny bit more range for the US market. The Gen III Tesla will be the next 400,000 unit a year Prius! People are scared of change.

 

[smorgasbord]

Bottom line is there is no way the Model S will have a lower TCO than the Prius--even with the new $40,000 prices for a fully loaded one.

You might want to take a look at: http://teslarumors.com/Teslanomics-Toyota.html He says after 5 years the TCO for the Prius is only $3232 more than the base Model S. Most of the guy's assumptions are pretty good, except the resale value, which he bases on gasoline cars and which totally ignores the well-known battery life aspect. So, if you're driving your car to the point that it'll have a small resale value anyway, then you might indeed find the Model S TCO less than the Prius if you drive enough miles.

 

[jerry33]

You might want to take a look at: http://teslarumors.com/Teslanomics-Toyota.html He says after 5 years the TCO for the Prius is only $3232 more than the base Model S. Most of the guy's assumptions are pretty good, except the resale value, which he bases on gasoline cars and which totally ignores the well-known battery life aspect. So, if you're driving your car to the point that it'll have a small resale value anyway, then you might indeed find the Model S TCO less than the Prius if you drive enough miles.

Been to that site many times but he uses the EPA numbers, not the actual numbers. I'm basing it on the actual numbers from my logbook.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Full figures for Norway:

Electric car sales:

Car brand/model:	June:	May:	April:	March:	February:	January:	Year to date:
Nissan Leaf:	138	179	113	179	214	210	1033
Mitsubishi I-MiEV:	39	72	59	83	53	30	336
Peugeot iOn:	9	13	61	25	24	8	140
Citroen C-Zero:	71	37	20	28	17	7	180
Tesla Roadster:	5	3	4	4	0	2	18
Think City:	1	1	0	5	1	0	8
Mia Electric:	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
Total:	264	305	258	324	309	257	1717
Percent of total sales:	2.388%	2.418%	2.372%	2.482%	2.829%	2.371%	2.476%

Plug-in hybrid sales:

Car brand/model:	June:	May:	April:	March:	February:	January:	Year to date:
Opel Ampera:	0	2	11	4	2	0	19
Fisker Karma:	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total:	0	2	11	4	2	0	19
Percent of total sales:	0.000%	0.016%	0.101%	0.031%	0.018%	0.000%	0.027%

 

[qwk]

+1 on this, a point I was trying to make in the thread where I posted the May sales.

I only posted the figures for Audi, BMW and Benz for the simple reason that that was what was requested. I'm not going to (and I don't think anyone wants me to) reproduce the whole chart here. You could argue that a Bentley buyer might consider a Model S. That doesn't make a Continental GT as cross-shopped with the Model S as a 5-Series.

As far as the maintenance of a Model S over a comparable car; I've said this before here, and some don't want to see it, but there won't be that much difference, over the term that these types of buyers keep cars like this. Modern engines are fantastically well built, and last for several hundred thousand miles. So a Model S will skip some oil changes, and doesn't have emissions control systems. It DOES however have wheel bearing assemblies, ball joints, struts, brakes, and A/C compressor, power steering components, a cabin filter, light assemblies, a transmission, window regulator assemblies, motor mounts, a climate control system and God only knows how many sensors, switches and control modules. Oh and there's that 17" monitor right in the middle, that controls EVERYTHING, running unique software (can anybody say Fisker?). All of these components will be prone to failure or require service at some point, just as they do on every other car made.

By all accounts so far, the Model S is a fantastic car, and a remarkable achievement for Tesla. But to say that cost of ownership will be zero (or even close to zero) is naive.

While some modern gasoline engines last 200k miles, most do not. To say so is extremely naive.

You are also confusing maintenance items with regular function parts. Most non-maintenance parts last well over the life of the car. Maintenance parts like spark plugs, spark plug wires, cap, rotor on older ice, fuel filters, air filter, trans filter in auto trans, engine oil, timing belts and many more all need replaced on a regular basis if you want the efficiency and longevity, and even think about the car lasting over 100k miles.

 

[vfx]

The LA store says they have sold 30 cars a day since it opened 5 days ago. I bet the first reviews help that.

 

[mattjs33]

While some modern gasoline engines last 200k miles, most do not. To say so is extremely naive.

You are also confusing maintenance items with regular function parts. Most non-maintenance parts last well over the life of the car.

"Extremely naive"? "Well over the life of the car"?

I see cars with 200,000 miles on them all the time. In fact I own one. We have several of our delivery trucks with over 300,000 on them, and two with over 400,000. These are not long-haul trucks, but Chevrolet S10's.

And what are all those non-maintenance parts I sell every day being used for then, if the ones they are replacing are supposed to outlast the cars for which they are built?

Yes, you will need to maintain your gasoline car to keep it in top shape (most spark plug intervals now are 100,000 miles, for platinum plugs). But it is silly to suggest that a Tesla will never require service. What are all those rangers doing? And anyway electric motors can suffer failures or wear out. I have a bunch on my shelves, and I know places like Grainger offer a pretty good selection of replacement industrial motors.

Anyway, the mods are circling. The Volt seems to be selling pretty good. :wink:

 

[Doug_G]

Anyway, the mods are circling. The Volt seems to be selling pretty good. :wink:

I didn't realize you could see our shark fins. But thanks for :wink: bringing this back on topic.

 

[qwk]

"Extremely naive"? "Well over the life of the car"?

I see cars with 200,000 miles on them all the time. In fact I own one. We have several of our delivery trucks with over 300,000 on them, and two with over 400,000. These are not long-haul trucks, but Chevrolet S10's.

And what are all those non-maintenance parts I sell every day being used for then, if the ones they are replacing are supposed to outlast the cars for which they are built?

Yes, you will need to maintain your gasoline car to keep it in top shape (most spark plug intervals now are 100,000 miles, for platinum plugs). But it is silly to suggest that a Tesla will never require service. What are all those rangers doing? And anyway electric motors can suffer failures or wear out. I have a bunch on my shelves, and I know places like Grainger offer a pretty good selection of replacement industrial motors.

Anyway, the mods are circling. The Volt seems to be selling pretty good. :wink:

I`d like to know where I suggested that Tesla will never require service? Thanks for putting words in my mouth.

As for 300 and 400k mile cars woth no engine problems, those are the exception, not the norm. If you disagree, well maybe your store should offer cheap 300k mile engine guarantees since you are so convinced most cars manage that. I certainly would buy one, as NONE of mine and my familys 12+ cars made it over 200k without major engine work

 

[mattjs33]

I`d like to know where I suggested that Tesla will never require service? Thanks for putting words in my mouth.

I can read, have a glass of milk and relax. It was in reference to an earlier comment by somebody else, my response to which apparently got your undies a bit twisted.

If you have not, try a good synthetic oil for your family's gas burners in the future, Mobil 1 is an excellent product and has been working well for us. Maybe you will see some longer service life, if you care to hang on to your cars that long.

 

[qwk]

I can read, have a glass of milk and relax. It was in reference to an earlier comment by somebody else, my response to which apparently got your undies a bit twisted.

If you have not, try a good synthetic oil for your family's gas burners in the future, Mobil 1 is an excellent product and has been working well for us. Maybe you will see some longer service life, if you care to hang on to your cars that long.

The last few cars have had leaky headgaskets. Mobil 1 will not help one bit.
No worries though, thanks to Tesla, I will not own another ICE again.

 

[Lloyd]

The last few cars have had leaky headgaskets. Mobil 1 will not help one bit.
No worries though, thanks to Tesla, I will not own another ICE again.

Try re-torquing the head, cover bolts, and switch to an oil with additives for high mileage. It contitions the seals and causes them the swell slightly I am told, and slows the gaskets seeps.

 

[mattjs33]

No worries though, thanks to Tesla, I will not own another ICE again.

Great! I'm sure your Model S will give you hundreds of thousands of trouble-free miles.


When you get a chance, will you find out for me when is the first scheduled service interval for the Model S, and how much that service will cost to perform? You can post it elsewhere but give me a heads up when you do. For all I know I missed it already. Just curious, thanks.


I still think Tesla should report their sales.

 

[AnOutsider]

I still think Tesla should report their sales.

Should? Or you WANT them to? I see nothing wrong with a quarterly update. I can see no other reason it NEEDS to happen monthly...

 

[mattjs33]

Should? Or you WANT them to? I see nothing wrong with a quarterly update. I can see no other reason it NEEDS to happen monthly...

Want, I guess; speaking for myself. There's no reason anybody has to report monthly I suppose, but I note that all the "real" automakers do so. And now that Tesla is trying to become a "real" automaker, I see no reason not to (this applies to Fisker as well). Tesla will still be niche for a while, and everyone understands that. Doesn't stop Maserati from reporting, for example.

I'm guess I'm just curious in how it rolls out. Aren't you?