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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
- Start date
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- Model 3
That's very good sign. Maybe we could wish about that many deliveries in January. It'd be <1000/week, still plenty short from the 5000 but better than <100 we've seen so far.
A very good sign indeed. Tesla registered about 1000 new VINs on the 19th and then 3500 more VINs just 9 days later. The window between the previous registrations was about a month, so Tesla registering more VINs after just 9 days appears to hold some promise.
ElecFan
Member
We are going to need more evidence than that. It is a good sign but so far, I was expecting a lot more action and videos from Fremont parking lot. I agree the progress and car movements are happening but at a slower pace than I anticipated and what everyone thinks. I.e. if you make 100 cars a day, you expect 10 transporters a day to take those to various delivery centers. That's about 500 cars a week. If we're in 2-3k cars a week, we would see 20 to 60 car transporters in that parking lot every day. I'm not accounting for deliveries taking place directly at the factory but you get the idea. More transporters and movement is needed at the factory parking lot at any given time during business hours. So far, every drone video we've seen had minor to moderate amount of movement and not something demonstrative of 1000+ cars per week production. If you have seen different, please share. I'd love to be proven wrong on this.
I still say no. It isn't a VIN in the wild until the car has been seen or the person reports taking delivery of it.
Any non existing employed or Tesla owner receiving their car yet? Volumes we are seeing suggests this is many months away
No, because the ramp will be exponential.
You would only see all the transporters if the drone hovered over the facility 24/7.
It is very promising that a single snapshot in time showed this many transporters.
I interpret this differently. Unless every shot is this many transporters, were not up to 1000 per week.
ElecFan
Member
On Oct 28 tesla had 2639 vin registered. They've yet to deliver all those cars based on delivery schedule threads by CA owners. Sounds like some time in Jan-Feb, we will see 1k per week production rate.
I've just realised how much hoopla we created during delivery of first 3k of cars but still can't wait to get mine. Im really rooting for tesla to bump up their production and delivery game.
You don’t have the data. What if there are 100 transporters every hour all night long?
You are basing your estimates on one 15 minute snapshot. You need to know the average rate transporters leave the facility.
Along with that...
S/X are 25k a quarter, 8k a month, 2k a week. So at 2k a week for 3, the transporter count doubles. At 1k a week, only a 50% increase in shipments. Fremont delivery center is 10 minutes away, Marina Del Rey is 5.5 hours (max 2 trips/ 18 cars a day per transporter).
We need that gate cam
You right, I don't know and you don't know. What we have are sporadic facts. Those facts are multiple videos on different days and only one of them had transporters and significant movement. And highest vin count in range of ~2.6-2.7k total. Together, they're far from 1k per week. I'd love for you to be right. I had same hopes as you Right now but in q3. I.e. we don't have all the data on vins, tmc is small community with little data on tesla, all the news sites are wrong and tesla did make 1.5k cars in q3 but in the beginning of October, tesla stated ~360 cars delivered and production issues were blocking manufacturing.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I think that most (never all!) of us can agree that if Tesla keeps registering 3500+ VIN a week, we are well into the ramp. One more week of another 3500 VIN registrations and I'll be feeling quite good; two more consecutive weeks and I'm one smug little bear.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Indeed, Tesla's official Q4 announcement is ~ 5 days away, the next batch of VIN is 1 week away if we think this 3500 new VINs mean what they mean. Lets all chill for a week and just wait and see what comes next.
ccutrer
Active Member
It depends on which line you’re mentally placing yourself in. If it’s owner, and you’re planning on LR with PUP, but not any as yet unavailable options, yes the line does seem to be moving fast! If you’re waiting for something not yet available, your line hasn’t budged. But hopefully the possible speed of that first line means it won’t be too long for all the other lines to get moving
