Test drove a Model X, put down a deposit.. went home and immediately bought shares.
Have not regretted either decision.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Hi, I’m a short seller
- Thread starter ShortSeller
- Start date
Test drove a Model X, put down a deposit.. went home and immediately bought shares.
Have not regretted either decision.
I challenge the shorts to justify to their grandkids the reason to short a company like Tesla. There are many other companies to short in the stock market. But why Tesla? Why do you want Tesla to fail? Is making a few dollars all that matters? Should our aspirations to an self-sustaining world never be?
We live a short life and would love to live a slightly longer one if we can.
Tesla makes safe cars--despite the noise saying otherwise. My Teslas have saved me from two accidents by braking as fast as I take my foot off the accelerator. Tesla's understated and under-marketed safety features: large front crumple zones, immediate acceleration to avoid accidents, and instant braking have made me a convert to EVs.
After owning many ICE cars in my life, I feel Teslas--and other EVs that offer similar benefits--are the way forward. As consumers, we all want the safest and best modes of transportation for those we care about.
So for those of you who short this company, who don't believe in the mission to create a world where we can have safe, sustainable transportation: F U.
I'm all in.
We live a short life and would love to live a slightly longer one if we can.
Tesla makes safe cars--despite the noise saying otherwise. My Teslas have saved me from two accidents by braking as fast as I take my foot off the accelerator. Tesla's understated and under-marketed safety features: large front crumple zones, immediate acceleration to avoid accidents, and instant braking have made me a convert to EVs.
After owning many ICE cars in my life, I feel Teslas--and other EVs that offer similar benefits--are the way forward. As consumers, we all want the safest and best modes of transportation for those we care about.
So for those of you who short this company, who don't believe in the mission to create a world where we can have safe, sustainable transportation: F U.
I'm all in.
Wait?!? What?!? Are you serious? They own the 2170 cell. Is there a better battery out there? I have never seen that challenged. The 18650s in my 5.5year old (not 9!) model S has held up remarkably well and they have improved the internal chemistry numerous times since. You have made some interesting points but planting a short flag on Tesla’s ‘obsolete’ battery chemistry is just, well, crazy imo. Kinda jumped the shark on this one for me.
Max range on my model S when I got it in 2012: 420km. Max range now (170,000+ km later): 402. That is remarkable.
I drive with AP everyday for 75 odd miles. It is a stress buster and life saver. You think I am deluded saying that?
AP is one of those features that you have to own it for a week or two and get comfortable with it to enjoy it. The more you use the more you understand the nuances and start liking it. Test driving almost always will give you the eerie uncomfortable feeling
The 2170 is also just a battery format. They don't own it any more than Energizer owns AAA-batteries.
But as you and others say, the chemistry is constantly updated. I don't think they've implemented the 3% cobalt cathode in the 18650s yet, but they're bound to do so in the near future, if they don't simply switch to the 2170s. The 2170s are probably a bit cheaper to produce per kWh, and they simplify pack production, so they are a meaningful improvement over the 18650s, but it's not a deciding factor when it comes to profitability, competitiveness, and such. If the 18650s are $20 more expensive per kWh on the pack level, a 100 kWh pack may have an additional cost of around $2000, over a hypothetical 2170 based pack. Sure, those are meningful savings, but the more expensive Model S/X can soak up that cost.
Last edited:
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Not always two sides...
When another OEM joins the Tesla network;
OR
Funds their own network to AT LEAST the same extent as Tesla
OR
Someone can articulate the business case for an independent L3 network. Electrify America is IMO a joke meant to punish VW not a legitimate L3 network.
THEN
We can have an intelligent debate. Until then Tesla is really the only game in town and the short 'debate' is really just noise.
nwdiver I was going to PM you to say thanks for your effort on the climate change thread. But I will just say it here instead.
You have more patience than me when it comes to presenting facts to those who refuse to listen...and I applaud you for that.
You have more patience than me when it comes to presenting facts to those who refuse to listen...and I applaud you for that.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Even longs need to be educated on the short side thesis. I welcome opposing view points but they just aren’t very good and come more from being fed garbage from Seeking Alpha vs practical experience.
AP no better than a Hyundai? That’s a crazy thesis to short shares and buy puts off of
Reality -- Pause there and consider what you wrote -- and consider the education that you got immediately after. Especially this one:
You are full of confusion -- confusion on Tesla's debt, on Tesla's batteries, on Tesla's customer satisfaction and on Tesla's demand.
It's one thing to have clear facts and just make an unlucky bet or bad prediction or have a bad theory. But your basis for your position is based on staggering ignorance and confusion on some basic facts. A good recipe for losses.
The 2170 cell is only used in the 3, they addressed this at a EC, they will likely never use the 2170 in the M3, and while it is not stated I am pretty sure they are committed to buying the 18650 cells in certain quantities from Panasonic
a plant?
I could just spend all my time in an echo chamber, but i dont. I spend more time here because i want to be wrong, heck i would be thrilled to be talked out of making a huge mistake. I am not married to my short position, i just have it.
I laid a pretty long post about the basics of my thesis, and i didnt mention things like "significant signs point to an active SEC investigation". I used facts and reasonable explanations. I also complimented the cars themselves. The first rule, as i understand it as I am not a professional, to investing is to not get emotional. While I have grown to significantly dislike Tesla (and i actively try not to), i dont dislike any of you or any longs. At the same time this place absolutely HATES the shorts. I mean you really really hate us. That's weird.
That is a good question, the thing is most shorts dont really care about production numbers long term. Sure we like when the stock moves down, but honestly if they produced model 3's faster it would show the demand isnt there for a 50k+ car, and i dont think they make money on a 40k one. SO honestly i just dont care that much what production is. I definitely enjoy following the #Shednaught stuff though.
SpiceWare
Member
I don't hate you, I find y'all's posts to be a humorous break from reality.
Are you not worried of a subconscious bias affecting your ability to rationally differentiate between true issues and those you hope come true? I say this with sincerity as the market has clearly not agreed with you over the public life of Tesla.
Your thesis appears to based upon hope, a hope driven by your dislike of Elon and Tesla. If you look at Tesla's record they have shown that despite Elon's almost childlike optimism the company eventually delivers. This delivery is masked by the next new product and the ever present circus that follows. No one talks about Model S or X issues any longer as they have delivered.
Additionally, saying demand will be an issue is going completely against reason. If demand did slow, Tesla would still have the ability to reduce margins/price to use as a demand lever while slowing their rate of growth. This would not occur for at least two years from now as backlog would have to clear.
My long term view is that Tesla will raise money in late 2018 or 2019 and will establish the Gigafactory in China. The Model 3 circus will drift into the background as emphasis shifts away from 5k per week and on to the upcoming circus' called Giga3, Semi, Roadster, Solar Roof, and Model Y. The narrative that Chanos so often harps on will continue unabated. Revenues will increase at ~35% per year with a ~4% p/s multiple.
A smart short would be very strategic and target those times when the p/s multiple gets ahead of itself. Anything less would be ignoring history.
Last edited:
Rocket Cars
Colonizing to Mars
Tunnel trips for a $1
Hyperloop
FSD
Strobe lights
I can go on, but you are questioning ME of letting my subconscious bias of what I "want" to see happen as opposed to what the reality is because i think Tesla uses questionable accounting metrics?
Which by the way, an analyst released a report on today.
Quoth the Raven on Twitter
Hate is far too strong a word, for me at least. But if you actually read any of my replies you would find nothing 'weird' about why I find shorting Tesla distasteful. I wrote it in plain English.
Similar threads
