Growth of Superchargers vs Teslas/EVs in Australia

[gazpachopolice]

Interesting. Other throughput effects not considered in the OP analysis are Supercharger generational effects from improved power, and pre-conditioning.

The kW/car figure is there precisely to account for newer chargers being 250 kW, that's why we're seeing a 76% increase in available power vs "only" 54% in SC units. Preconditioning has also been around for a while.

I'm also generally skeptical about any arguments that driver behaviour has changed in the last year. Sure, us propellerheads will happily debate the performance characteristics of the latest batteries here, but the average Tesla owner pulling up at a Supercharger is going to charge to 100% unless they're in a blazing hurry (and maybe even then, because it's still probably faster than an additional charging stop).

 

[moa999]

Tesla has experimented with relocatable Superchargers, and that strikes me as the smart strategy

Not sure if that really works on highways in Australia. The peak (Xmas and other holidays) is the same for all major roads.

Relocatables might work for one off festivals and the like, but much of the cost in a supercharger install is the electrical capacity in the first place, and that's the same whether it's permanent or used one week a year.

 

[Sir Surfalot]

The peak (Xmas and other holidays) is the same for all major roads.

Extra capacity in Jindabyne (or equivalent sub-alpine town in Victoria) over winter, moved to some coastal place - that similarly only needs 2-3 times “normal” capacity for a couple of months of the year - over summer.

It is worth the trouble vs just building out more permanent chargers in both places, dunno, but maybe an interim step until the need for more permanent charging in both places is established and proven to the respective local councils.

 

[Goneincognito]

I was concerned about congestion over the Christmas break when I took a trip in my new Model Y but the Glovis Caravel took care of that worry for me.
Now I won't have to worry until next Christmas

 

[Chuq]

Not sure if that really works on highways in Australia. The peak (Xmas and other holidays) is the same for all major roads.

Relocatables might work for one off festivals and the like, but much of the cost in a supercharger install is the electrical capacity in the first place, and that's the same whether it's permanent or used one week a year.

@SageBrush may possibly mean the ones on portable trailers with Megapacks. They park them adjacent to an existing SC site on a Friday, take it back to HQ on Saturday to plug in and charge the Megapack back up, and take it out to the same location on the Sunday (or maybe Saturday/Monday depending on the weekend). I think they might have had versions that could connect to an external source (such as a supercharger plug itself) to "charge up" overnight, but I may be misremembering.

However they only really appeared in California, and only a few times, they weren't a widespread thing an appeared to be more of a proof-of-concept than anything else.

It could make sense if Tesla knows that a particular route is not going to have sufficient capacity or wants to have something they can deploy with a days notice. e.g. if they get told on Dec 23rd that Thrumster will not have power at all, they could drive up, park in front of the stalls, each night drive it to Cassegrain and charge up there, etc. then drive back to Thrumster the next day. Lots of things to consider and possible issues (who wants to be the employee working all Christmas/New Years doing that? How would it appear on the nav if it was present when someone starts their trip and disappears while they are en-route?), but just an example of how it could work.

 

[Aryll]

These figures are based off supercharge.info and random news reports for Tesla/EV growth: if somebody has a solid data set for either of these, I'd love to see it.

I’m planning on starting a thread about BEV sales data once the December figures are released, but for now, here’s this:

 

[Quickst]

congestion over the Christmas break

I think not as congested as the long weekends which see a high concentration of vehicles heading out of town on Friday and coming back on Sunday.

 

[Quickst]

it's still probably faster than an additional charging stop

Yes on my most recent trip between Sydney and Young, I toyed with the idea of a faster charge exploiting low SoC at Exeter, Yass but the calculation say a charge to 80% at Exeter would still be quicker.

On the other hand I would not like to keep the battery at 60⁰C for the entire SC session up to 80% So - yes it was 60⁰C between 20-80%.
Minimising the dwell time at such high temps can only benefit the battery (yesI know its only for a short duration). I don't know if the battery temp would have stay at 60⁰C until 100%. Highway driving reduces the battery temp to around ambient - well it was 30⁰C ambient and 34⁰C when I stopped in Yopung

 

[cafz]

but the average Tesla owner pulling up at a Supercharger is going to charge to 100% unless they're in a blazing hurry (and maybe even then, because it's still probably faster than an additional charging stop).

I share your scepticism that behaviour has changed much (if nothing else, the majority of drivers are new!), but would point out that cases where charging to 100% will save you a stop over charging to 90% are relatively few.

 

[SageBrush]

but would point out that cases where charging to 100% will save you a stop over charging to 90% are relatively few.

I like stopping to get out of the car to stretch, walk around, and give everybody a chance to use a restroom, so the extra time is already built into the drive. But for someone who wants to stay planted in the car and urinate into a bottle to arrive in the shortest time possible, I agee with @cafz : for the Superchargers I frequent, I estimate it takes a good 5 minutes on average to reach the Supercharger and circle back. I'l guess that average charging speed in the 80 - 100% SoC interval is 50 kW, while In the 10 - 70% SoC interval average charging speed is about 150 kW.

Using an example of an 80 kWh pack, 20% is 16 kWh. At 50 kW it takes 19 minutes while at 150 kW it takes 6 minutes. So 5 minutes is 'spent' to save 13 minutes in charging. Queuing up for a charging spot can change things. Waiting more than 8 minutes would tip the scales. As the proportion of drivers who charge to 100% increases, the waiting time increases and a vicious cycle results.

I hope Tesla adds a hefty surcharge to charge above 80% more than once per day. It might be the only way to put a stop to this system inefficiency.

 

[technerdx6000]

but the average Tesla owner pulling up at a Supercharger is going to charge to 100% unless they're in a blazing hurry (and maybe even then, because it's still probably faster than an additional charging stop)

Considering the longest stretch on the Hume between chargers is now only 115km and on the Pacific its 212km, there is absolutely no reason to charge beyond 80% anymore, even for the the SR models.

There definitely needs to be an additional fee for charging over 80% during high demand situations.

 

[Baymax44]

I thought there is a hard limit to prevent you from charging over 80% if the superchargers are queued? But for other brands chargers, it is a different case.

 

[Vostok]

Considering the longest stretch on the Hume between chargers is now only 115km and on the Pacific its 212km, there is absolutely no reason to charge beyond 80% anymore, even for the the SR models.

Not enough for the Gen 1 Nissan Leaf… though I’d never be mad enough to go on a road trip with it

What’s the shortest range EV that one can buy new today? About 250 km?

 

[Hairyman]

I thought there is a hard limit to prevent you from charging over 80% if the superchargers are queued? But for other brands chargers, it is a different case.

The car defaults to 80% at busy superchargers, but you can override it.

 

[leonk]

I thought there is a hard limit to prevent you from charging over 80% if the superchargers are queued? But for other brands chargers, it is a different case.

I'd assume Tesla can see a queue of Teslas at a supercharger station and stop any charger there going past 80% if they wanted to. Regardless of brand plugged in.

 

[Baymax44]

The car defaults to 80% at busy superchargers, but you can override it.

Ahh, I don't know that, but this should prevent most ppl from overcharging even thought they can override this setting. Let's see how this public holiday goes

 

[Jules22]

They have introduced charges for forcing it past 80% at a busy charger in the code, I don't think it's been activated in AU as yet though. It may have been in the US.

 

[Quickst]

It may have been in the US.

Tesla is calling it a "congestion fee" of $1/min
Basically it is the same as idle fees but instead of idle feel starting when set SoC limit is reached or at 100%, it now kicks in at 80% for certain SC when its "congested"

USA, not in AU

 

[Jules22]

Tesla is calling it a "congestion fee" of $1/min
Basically it is the same as idle fees but instead of idle feel starting when set SoC limit is reached or at 100%, it now kicks in at 80% for certain SC when its "congested"

USA, not in AU

Yeah, my understanding is they are trialling it, so will hopefully come here soon.

 

[doggy1]

Yeah, my understanding is they are trialling it, so will hopefully come here soon.

Well, this might sometimes be a pain (an expensive one). At the end of the week, I am going out West from Sydney for a family gathering. No DC charging in the area so I need to charge to around 95% in the Blue Mountains otherwise I'll not have enough charge to make the destination plus return to a charger. It is all very well to discourage charging over 80% when more DC charging is within reach but we are nowhere near that situation yet in many parts of Australia.