General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EinSV]

I agree with the conclusion that the insideEV numbers are not necessarily an indication that 1000/week target by end of January wasn't reached. But one thing to keep in mind that there is something different between S/X and 3 wrt in transit. The former pipeline is much, much longer due to international deliveries. All else equal I would expect the 3 pipeline to be smaller. I think not everything else is equal though. Many service centers need to familiarize themselves with Model 3 before they can deliver in numbers leading to local build ups (there are a lot of reports of centers with up to a dozen cars waiting).

I agree with all that, and have also seen many reports of local build ups as Tesla smooths out the delivery process ("just in time" delivery infrastructure/personnel/training to minimize OpEx -- you should like that ).

As noted in my posts above, probably the biggest factor is that Tesla optimizes quarter-end deliveries to some extent but does not try to optimize month end deliveries. Every indication is that is the case with Model 3 deliveries with many orders outside CA in process at the end of the month, so I expect there are a larger number of cars in the delivery pipeline relative to production than at the end of a typical quarter.

 

[Newb]

Inside EV was about 45% off Jan-Feb 2016 numbers for Model X. They changed their numbers ex-post for both months only after Tesla sent out the Q1 16 delivery update in March 16.

They‘re just speculating, as well as we all are. They’ve no secret sources of information.

my 2 cents on that monthly score card of theirs.

 

[W84M3]

A dig from the ex-Autopilot director...

 

[Reciprocity]

Inside EV was about 45% off Jan-Feb 2016 numbers for Model X. They changed their numbers ex-post for both months only after Tesla sent out the Q1 16 delivery update in March 16.

They‘re just speculating, as well as we all are. They’ve no secret sources of information.

my 2 cents on that monthly score card of theirs.

I agree that the numbers will more then likely be revised up or just lumped into March when official numbers come out. But speaking of InsideEVs; Why dont we see any Articles saying.. "Model 3, the best selling EV in the US to start a year in the history of EVs."

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Also, this is best January that Tesla has ever had in the US, probably more then doubling any other January. Why no Articles on that fact?

 

[Newb]

Because it‘s not a fact (yet). just unconfirmed speculation.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Because it‘s not a fact (yet). just unconfirmed speculation.

Right. Like that stopped anyone before.

 

[techmaven]

Also, this is best January that Tesla has ever had in the US, probably more then doubling any other January. Why no Articles on that fact?

There is a very real possibility that Tesla sets monthly EV sales records for the US from here throughout 2018.

 

[Newb]

Right. Like that stopped anyone before.

Bears and fudsters put out articles based on _negative_ speculation all the time - that's true. But positive speculation doesn't seem to catch the same attention in the media, unfortunately.

I reckon Tesla even had a much better January (wrt Model 3 production and deliveries) than Inside EV believes.

 

[ThortsMD]

There is a very real possibility that Tesla sets monthly EV sales records for the US from here throughout 2018.

How about through 2038.

 

[mongo]

There is a very real possibility that Tesla sets monthly EV sales records for the US from here throughout 2018.

Since the 3 is US only (at this point), I sure hope so! 2k/wk is more than S+X total production.

 

[JRP3]

There is a very real possibility that Tesla sets monthly EV sales records for the US from here throughout 2018.

If they don't I'd say we have a real problem.

 

[dc_h]

I agree with the conclusion that the insideEV numbers are not necessarily an indication that 1000/week target by end of January wasn't reached. But one thing to keep in mind that there is something different between S/X and 3 wrt in transit. The former pipeline is much, much longer due to international deliveries. All else equal I would expect the 3 pipeline to be smaller. I think not everything else is equal though. Many service centers need to familiarize themselves with Model 3 before they can deliver in numbers leading to local build ups (there are a lot of reports of centers with up to a dozen cars waiting).

The end of January in transit is likely much higher than end of December. Pictures from Fremont show what appears to be 500 or more Model 3's and lead times for deliveries have risen to 4 weeks or more for east coast customers, so it seems likely they have a couple of trains running east as well. I think they will try to maximize deliveries for the quarter, but will also do everything possible to optimized delivery costs. They will want to report a positive gross margin and need to hit certain number of deliveries and need to control costs. I don't pretend to know production numbers, but I think we'll hear they exited January above 1000.

 

[Skryll]

Bears and fudsters put out articles based on _negative_ speculation all the time - that's true. But positive speculation doesn't seem to catch the same attention in the media, unfortunately.

I reckon Tesla even had a much better January (wrt Model 3 production and deliveries) than Inside EV believes.

There was some positive 'speculation' that got unwarranted attention, i.e. HUD, Teslikes 450 mile range fantasy on reddit, but yeah more in the insideev.com type publications

 

[Mich]

Just reading an article on Apple taking over Tesla. Although I don't think this will happen I'm wondering how this technically could happen. Does Apple need to buy 50%+ of the shares? Who can decide to merge two pubic companies (like Solar City and Tesla) and what conditions are applied?

 

[Skryll]

Just reading an article on Apple taking over Tesla. Although I don't think this will happen I'm wondering how this technically could happen. Does Apple need to buy 50%+ of the shares? Who can decide to merge two pubic companies (like Solar City and Tesla) and what conditions are applied?

Knowing the trajectory tesla is on, leveraging the semi truck chargers as a foot in the door to place powerpacks and solar at large energy consuming end-customers displacing consumption for more than just driving, and the superiority of say the Model 3 to the Bolt at a similar price point and better margins, I doubt any serious long would part with their shares for the next few years.

 

[avoigt]

Just reading an article on Apple taking over Tesla. Although I don't think this will happen I'm wondering how this technically could happen. Does Apple need to buy 50%+ of the shares? Who can decide to merge two pubic companies (like Solar City and Tesla) and what conditions are applied?

You have different ways, friendly and not that friendly to try taking over a company and as a Board you have measures you can fix upfront or during one against it.

Complex and long matter to explain and not sure if that belongs here because with the shares EM and his family own and knowing that quote, EM 2017 " I will be the last one who sells shares" its very much unlikely that a takeover will happen as long as he is around. Finally I doubt that Apple wants it.

 

[TNEVol]

Pardon the OT but just got the VIN for my wife's M3 configured on 1-17. 58XX

 

[Todd Burch]

View attachment 277676

A dig from the ex-Autopilot director...

As if there was any progress while he was in charge...

 

[Reciprocity]

Just talked to the guy at Highland Park again and he said they have already delivered 40 model 3s. I have personally seen about a dozen there, though I dont know how many of those where the same car or overlap with previously seen cars. 40 deliveries for a showroom that is about the size of a living room of an average sized apartment, that's pretty good. Its a service center so they have several service bays and they have a delivery area in the back that is much larger, say 8 cars can be delivered at the same time and that is where I saw 7 the other day. I cannot imagine that only 1875 where delivered this month. 40 at highland park probably is indicative of 120 in Chicago area alone as there are at least 3 locations in the area. Its hard to extrapolate from that but I would guess 2400 or so at a minimum. Towards the end of last year, we had 1800 of roughly 3000 vins that were delivered (roughly 60%). We have VINs in the wild of upwards of 7000 today at 60% - 1800 delivered last year would e ~2400.

 

[RobStark]

http://www.autonews.com/article/201...output-disrupted-for-3rd-day-by-union-strikes