General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

I think panel gaps are often a proxy for production quality and an indicator of cabin noise and long term durability of any car. It may not be true, but it is a quality indicator that anyone can see

Agreed, I'm just thinking that when an OEM wants benchmark data on a Tesla, the manufacturing tolerance side of things is not their major concern (especially since Munroe and others bought the early production vehicle)...

The notion that it is a solved problem indicates to me that it is not something others are worried about, unless the base process is a revolutionary advancement that reduces time/ cost at the same quality level.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Johann Koeber]

I think panel gaps are often a proxy for production quality and an indicator of cabin noise and long term durability of any car. It may not be true, but it is a quality indicator that anyone can see.
Seems incontrovertible that some early cars had fit issues. An employee discount on the first 5000 cars might have helped keep more early mistakes out of public hands. Based on Elon’s statement they are going to have a continuous improvement plan in place on their internal production and for all suppliers. Reducing gaps and improving production controls will help, if not be necessary to increase production to 10,000 per week. In technology, and logically in production, reducing errors is critical to increasing productivity. My team is 3 times as productive, by output as 5 years ago. That would not be possible without improving our controls and quality, as well as our partners doing the same. I hope Elon has some excellent data people working at Tesla identifying the best productivity and quality opportunities.

Tesla policy is ‚no discounts for nobody‘, not even board members; this includes Elon.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The following quotes the possibility of a $300 oil future from a top oil investor, Pierre Andurand: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

$TSLA bulls and bears must heed this prediction from top oil investor @AndurandPierre, as higher gasoline prices allow @Tesla to keep ASP, across all products and both new/used, higher than otherwise = higher margins, which I explored in depth here: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[Waiting4M3]

The following quotes the possibility of a $300 oil future from a top oil investor, Pierre Andurand: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

$TSLA bulls and bears must heed this prediction from top oil investor @AndurandPierre, as higher gasoline prices allow @Tesla to keep ASP, across all products and both new/used, higher than otherwise = higher margins, which I explored in depth here: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

On one hand oil companies keep under-estimating the renewable growth:
BP Admits It Underestimated Renewable Growth | OilPrice.com

On the other hand Mr. Pierre thinks people are not willing to invest in long term oil projects because of the fear of coming peak oil, thus leading to supply shortage in the next few years and much higher oil price.

I wonder which is/will be true.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

On one hand oil companies keep under-estimating the renewable growth:
BP Admits It Underestimated Renewable Growth | OilPrice.com

On the other hand Mr. Pierre thinks people are not willing to invest in long term oil projects because of the fear of coming peak oil, thus leading to supply shortage in the next few years and much higher oil price.

I wonder which is/will be true.

In short, the future growth rate of renewable energy generation and consumption is greatly underestimated by oil investors and media, but its impact on oil demand growth in the foreseeable future is greatly overestimated by renewable energy proponents. I'm in the middle.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla policy is ‚no discounts for nobody‘, not even board members; this includes Elon.

Except that there is an employee discount on S and X (not on the 3 through)

 

[Tenable]

Except that there is an employee discount on S and X (not on the 3 through)

Really?? What is the discount?

 

[SPadival]

Here's empirical evidence of what we suspect is Elon's managerial style. Incidentally, seems consistent in what Tesla is looking for in advertisements for new employees and the recently leaked e-mail to employees.

Quick read.

7 Traits of Super-Productive People

Elon says mostly not true

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Paracelsus]

China completes its transition to a fully electric bus fleet in Shenzen only 2-3 years. Jigar Shah just posted on LinkedIn that the city of New York hopes to complete a similar transition by 2014. Is the US even still visible in China's rear view mirror?

Shenzhen completes its bus fleet transitions to 100% electric buses

 

[StapleGun]

I took 3 coworkers for a drive in my model 3 on Friday.
They all said this will be their next car

I took several cousins for a ride in my 3 this weekend and they were put off by the panel gaps and lack of Alcantara headliner.


...just kidding of course. The younger ones were snap chatting about auto-pilot and the frunk while the older ones asked about pricing and tax credits trying to figure out if it could fit in their budget.

 

[MacRocket]

Yeah, he did. Henry Ford | Biography, Education, Inventions, & Facts

"During its first five years the Ford Motor Company produced eight different models, and by 1908 its output was 100 cars a day. The stockholders were ecstatic; Ford was dissatisfied and looked toward turning out 1,000 a day. The stockholders seriously considered court action to stop him from using profits to expand. In 1909 Ford, who owned 58 percent of the stock, announced that he was only going to make one car in the future, the Model T. The only thing the minority stockholders could do to protect their dividends from his all-consuming imagination was to take him to court, which Horace and John Dodge did in 1916.

The Dodge brothers, who formerly had supplied chassis to Ford but were now manufacturing their own car while still holding Ford stock, sued Ford for what they claimed was his reckless expansion and for reducing prices of the company’s product, thereby diverting money from stockholders’ dividends. The court hearings gave Ford a chance to expound his ideas about business. In December 1917 the court ruled in favour of the Dodges; Ford, as in the Selden case, appealed, but this time he lost. In 1919 the court said that, while Ford’s sentiments about his employees and customers were nice, a business is for the profit of its stockholders. Ford, irate that a court and a few shareholders, whom he likened to parasites, could interfere with the management of his company, determined to buy out all the shareholders..."

I should do my research, well l suppose Elon would know how Henry felt at least.

 

[larmor]

On one hand oil companies keep under-estimating the renewable growth:
BP Admits It Underestimated Renewable Growth | OilPrice.com

On the other hand Mr. Pierre thinks people are not willing to invest in long term oil projects because of the fear of coming peak oil, thus leading to supply shortage in the next few years and much higher oil price.

I wonder which is/will be true.

If there is elevation of the oil price, would not shale oil increase dramatically and the market will be flooded with oil. Add to that decreasing cost to ev and solar as well as batteries...

There may be an inflection point at which they cannot give away gasoline.

 

[Ghostman]

Interesting comment from Toronto, ON, Canada. Talked to a sales rep while attempting to purchase a wall charger. He mentioned that they are working to figure out the logistics for delivery and scrambling to hire staff. He mentioned the region has ~30k pre-orders and ~3k already configured. The number seems a tad high...I'm thinking it might be for all of Canada?

In any case, take this info with a grain of salt, but I figured I'd throw it out there. And no, I was not able to buy the wall charger as I didn't have a VIN yet. We'll see in a couple of weeks.

 

[Waiting4M3]

If there is elevation of the oil price, would not shale oil increase dramatically and the market will be flooded with oil. Add to that decreasing cost to ev and solar as well as batteries...

There may be an inflection point at which they cannot give away gasoline.

As I understand, one possible scenario is that before this eventual continuously falling oil price that you described, there could be a short period of astronomically high oil price (such as hundreds of $ per barrel), because while old oil fields dry up and stop producing, no one will want to invest in new oil fields because "peak oil" is < 10 years away and they can't recoup their investments quickly enough, thus causing a supply shortage. It may or may not happen because there may be a large supply of dormant shale oil fields that were already established but not producing, and can be brought online quickly with a small increase in oil price (over $100/brl).

 

[Paracelsus]

Wow..........did I mess up that comment and then did not even proof it. Now I am the source of Fake news. Fuuuuuuuuuudge. Sorry everyone for that. I didn't mean to be the Idaho Skeptic by osmosis (being so close to Montana). Here is what I meant to write:

China completes its transition to a fully electric bus fleet in Shenzhen in only 2-3 years. Jigar Shah just posted on LinkedIn that the city of New York hopes to complete a similar transition by 2040. Is the US even still visible in China's rear view mirror?

(yes, NY is really trying to delay full implementation of electric buses until 2040. Sorry I wrote 2014 for god's sake. For the past 3 administrations we have received news regarding energy efficiency adoption DELAYS repackaged as positive news.........like "we are going to implement a 20% reduction in energy use by 2030", a time frame at that time of 15 years, when it could have been done in 15 months. And Shenzhen does it in 2-3 years on a huge scale)

Shenzhen completes its bus fleet transitions to 100% electric buses[/QUOTE]

 

[TradingInvest]

Why Tesla loses so much now and is likely to be very profitable in second half? This is my back-of-the-envelope estimates:

Employee cost roughly $3~4B per year.
Each factory spending is $1B a year ($1Bx3)
Other stuff cost $1~2B a year.

The total spending is $8B a year, not including materials and parts for cars.

100k Model S + X can bring in $6B a year because the parts and material costs about $30k per car. I ignored insignificant items for simplicity.

So there should be a loss of $500 million per quarter. That's what have been happening in each of the recent quarters.

Tesla will need to sell 70k Model 3s to break even at a yearly level. First half sells 40k Model 3s, second half sells 100k Model 3s. We should have pretty large earnings (about $2B) in second half.

More importantly, this shows us the huge earnings potential in the future when both Model 3 and Y are in full production. Tesla expects Model Y will help the company to achieve a total of 1 million vehicles per year.

 

[TradingInvest]

Put the neighbor in mine today. He now wants his wife to try it. I give them less that a week before they put a deposit down.

A friend of mine test drove today. His wife was in the car too. After the drive, while the husband was commenting how amazing it is, his wife said "We should have reserved one earlier".

Tesla doesn't need dealers and TV ads. Their cars are the best sales person.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Another hit piece on Tesla this morning by Bloomberg. How many times will they publish the same story and spin it as if it’s the first time, while ignoring the fact that GM burned more cash in one quarter than Tesla did in a year? ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[schonelucht]

Really?? What is the discount?

Details are not known. The discount was clearly mentioned in the documentation that accompagnied Model 3's intented for employees. Some employee discussed the document and filmed it integrally on youtube. One of the FAQs was : is there an employee discount on the Model 3 with answer : There is no employee discount for the 3, only for the S/X. The video was yanked a few weeks later.