Are there ways to maintain all of the structural benefits of the electric drivetrain whist simplifying manufacture to such an extent as to be able to offset the battery costs whilst creating a unique, compelling and reliable user experience? This is one almighty engineering challenge; as tough as making a reusable spacecraft.
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Hopefully that holds true. Roadster used exotic materials (carbon fiber) and construction to keep weight down as much as they could, but still weighed a fair bit due to the heavy battery pack.
Model S also uses advanced construction (very aluminum intensive) yet is on the heavy side.
I had heard that Gen III sedan may go to more conventional (e.g., steel) construction to keep costs down, so any plans to reduce weight are probably tied to lighter batteries coming in a few years. (Thinking less cells per pack.)
Do you remember where you got that intel from? Aluminum is more expensive that steel, but not by a large margin. The difference in material and assembly cost seems to be around $1000 for a mid-size car using 2001 data.
An article from 2001 (Kelkar et al.) points out that aluminum could compete with steel (on cost) and since then steel has more than tripled in price and aluminum has come down 30% (if I correctly interpreted what I found at Indexmundi).
But for an EV the savings in weight also translates to savings in battery size (given the same range), so aluminum is more cost effective for EV's than it is for ICE's.
I would think improved performance and road handling are important for TM to keep up its reputation and also account for a few $100.
TM's experience with aluminum could reduce engineering cost and risk, although spread out over 200,000+ cars/year that will not be the biggest cost saver.
All things considered I am not convinced that Gen III would use steel over aluminum. But then again I no nothing about the automotive sector other than what I can find on the web. Surely there must be *someone* reading this that can properly weigh the pros and cons of steel vs. aluminum for Gen III?
Audi A8 -> Audi A4 = -18%
BMW 7 -> BMW 3 = -22%
Li-ion cells decrease in weight (increase in capacity) with 5-10%/year, so 4 years after the Model S, the Gen III battery could weigh 30% less (for the same capacity, but because of its reduced weight the Gen III will require a smaller lighter battery), especially considering Elon's earlier reference to current developments at Panasonic.
A 20% reduction thus seems possible, but given the advances in cell tech, the reduction is likely to be a bit more than that.
One of the major costs of aluminum is the energy to smelt it. They use electricity for that, and electricity is getting cheaper ( relatively ) because of all the fracking fracking.
From one of the pages here: Aluminum Industry Analysis Brief
"One-third of the average cost of aluminum is for the energy required to make it:"
Other interesting pages:
Aluminum - Energy Use
Aluminum - Energy Expenditures
From one of the pages here: Aluminum Industry Analysis Brief
"One-third of the average cost of aluminum is for the energy required to make it:"
Other interesting pages:
Aluminum - Energy Use
Aluminum - Energy Expenditures
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
After lots of fruitless digging with Google, found it here in our forums:
ryanjm
Tesla Podcast Host
Considering how gorgeous I find the Model S to be, if Franz makes BlueStar even sexier, I'll be in heaven, considering that I'm hoping to get on the Sig list for it.
Okay. This brings up an interesting question. I tentatively plan on being on the Sig list also, so how many Gen III Signatures will there be? Since they plan on the Gen III/Bluestar selling ten times as many cars, 1000 Signatures seems like an awfully low number. So how many will they make?
Estimate: [1000, 20000]
Guess: 1000 Signature, 300 of which will be F&F; and an additional 75 Founder's
Based on Tesla's previous optimism bias -- over a year on the Roadster, over a year on Model S -- there is no chance whatsoever that the Gen3 will hit the road before 2016.
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The price of aluminum is driven entirely by recycling rates (more recycling == cheaper alumnium). This is rather different from the price of steel traditionally. Howevre, th old iron mines are beginning to run out, and new iron is expensive. There's still an awful lot of non-recycled iron. And a lot goes into things like reinforced concrete, and very rarely gets recycled. Unfortunately, even the "recycled" steel process generally requires a certain amount of new iron ore. (Unlike with aluminum, which can be made with 100% recycled sources, IIRC.) Steel is perfectly likely to get quite expensive for several decades while they figure out steel reclamation processes, which have already been figured out for aluminum. I didn't expect this phenomenon to start so soon, but it looks from your links like it's already starting.
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Tesla also has its aluminum production line already set up and knows how to use aluminum. I would bet on Tesla continuing with aluminum bodies.
The price of aluminum is driven entirely by recycling rates (more recycling == cheaper alumnium). This is rather different from the price of steel traditionally. Howevre, th old iron mines are beginning to run out, and new iron is expensive. There's still an awful lot of non-recycled iron. And a lot goes into things like reinforced concrete, and very rarely gets recycled. Unfortunately, even the "recycled" steel process generally requires a certain amount of new iron ore. (Unlike with aluminum, which can be made with 100% recycled sources, IIRC.) Steel is perfectly likely to get quite expensive for several decades while they figure out steel reclamation processes, which have already been figured out for aluminum. I didn't expect this phenomenon to start so soon, but it looks from your links like it's already starting.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Or maybe now that they have produced two different vehicles they now have a good handle on what is required...possibly? hopefully? Nah, you're probably right.
Everyone remember to recycle your cans and Reynolds wrap, GenIII is counting on you.
Would be interesting and amusing to see Tesla mount a campaign for such a thing.
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I hope they approve basalt rebar soon. It also allows for much thinner concrete since it's thickness is partly to keep iron tensioning from rusting.
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