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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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But why is it stopping there .... I think it can't figure out the distance to the gate reliably / correctly. If FSD thinks it is about to hit the gate, it will throw red hands. Something has changed in this release that either makes FSD throw red hands sooner or its calculation of distance less reliable.
I think it's the curb at that angle. It's hard to say for sure, but I have a similar situation at the entrance of my neighborhood, no gate, and the car freaks out sometimes.
 
Newest version of FSD beta has been interesting. For me, though, it's been a one step forward, two step backwards thing.

(apologies in advance for my terrible attempts to describe this stuff)

Improvements:

1. It fixed an issue that it had with a tricky turn lane on the way to my work that I thought might never get fixed. It was a bus lane, that for a very brief distance had dotted lines indicating that normal traffic can use it for a turning. Previously, it would get confused and attempt to turn from the wrong lane -- it handles it perfectly now.

2 It also seems smoother to me, overall, though that's hard to actually quantify. On the other hand it's making strange mistakes in areas that it used to handle perfectly.

Regressions:
1. There's a very simple three lane highway that it started randomly changing lanes abruptly as if there was something in it's path. I've never had any problem on this road and frankly it caused me to almost cancel FSD as it resulted in multiple horn honking events from cars around me. It's actually one of the few roads I had enough confidence in the past to use FSD during normal hours, so it was a little deflating.

2. There's a four way stop sign that I swore it handled perfectly in the past, but now it will stop again in the middle of the intersection. I finally figured out why -- there's a over-hanging stop sign that's actually on the other side of the intersection that I think FSD is interpreting as a new stop sign.

3. It decided it need to make a u-turn to get to my office instead of proceeding to the next street (a route it has taken many times). It then got stuck trying to make the u-turn and told me it was unable to complete maneuver and that I needed to take over. First time it's actually just given up on me in a long time.

4. It used to recognize some aggressive speed bumps on my route to work and slow down appropriately. It was really impressive! Now it just plows through them. I think the paint indicating the speed bumps might be fading? Not sure.

Biggest consistent issue:

Stop signs:
It stops too early, stays there too long, and creeps out in a jerky unnatural fashion. If this was fixed I could see actually using FSD in normal traffic sometimes. Not sure this can be fixed with the current hardware. I get why it has problems in this situation as technically I can't see the traffic either when I stop where I'm supposed to. I'm just better at creeping out efficiently which does seem like sort of an art form.
 
Wondering what others think of how well does FSD handle walkers and runners approaching your car as your driving. towards them. My belief has always been that FSD gets too close to the walker/running before moving over and then often doesn't move far enough over. Finally moves back too quickly.

Today 2 different people literally used both arms to wave me towards the center line. And those that didn't wave me over seemed unhappy how close I was to them. The planner definitely visualized them and the planner line showed FSD would move over as I approached. FSD did mover over but too late and not far enough IMO. Where I drive unless there is a car coming in the other lane most drivers move over the center line with a lot moving entirely into the other lane. Same for cyclists.
 
I've complained a lot of times about small roundabouts. It always stops before figuring out how to navigate around the roundabout - even when it is empty. I thought this was a planning issue i.e. it needs more time to figure out how to navigate.

With 11.3.x looks like the problem is it thinks the car needs to stop - for whatever reason. So before the car stops if I tap the accelerator ... FSD won't stop but continue around the roundabout. Sometimes I've to tap the accelerator a couple of times. But now - I've figured out how to change the disengagement into an intervention ;)

1685645992426.png


After tap ...

1685646263810.png
 
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With 11.3.x looks like the problem is it thinks the car needs to stop
The last several versions (maybe all?) will virtually always stop at a yield. For flashing yellow arrows the Car stops before entering the intersection then only enters if the path is completely clear. For dedicated right turns lanes with an island to the left and a yield it will proceed only if the light is green. If the light is yellow or red it will always stop, regardless of whether there’s traffic or not.

For the first time, 11.3.6 would occasionally enter roundabouts for me without stopping. Prior to this it would always stop before entering, regardless of the presence or absence of traffic.
 
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Dumb question: How do you react to the posts with info, thump up, thump down emoticons? So far I only click the Like button?
Thumbs up or the i (informative) or lightbulb (helpful) reaction. Or reply if you actually want to say something.
(I think @rlsd is asking how you can leave a reaction other than the default thumbs-up.)

If you just momentarily tap the Like button it will register a thumbs-up (Like or Agree). If you tap again it will remove it.

If you want something else other than thumbs-up, put your mouse cursor or finger on it and hold for about one second. This will bring up a sub-menu choice of reactions. You can also use this method to change a reaction you already left to a different one. It won't add a second reaction from you, it will only replace the previous one you left.
 
I've complained a lot of times about small roundabouts. It always stops before figuring out how to navigate around the roundabout - even when it is empty. I thought this was a planning issue i.e. it needs more time to figure out how to navigate.
I've been thinking about this too. Time seems to often be the lacking dimension in FSD beta. If it had the time advantage of Keanu Reeves dodging bullets in The Matrix, it would clearly do a lot better.

I am hopeful that once FSD beta eventually reaches acceptable decision making skill, Tesla should be able to focus more on optimizing the neural networks for speed.

A problem with that is that increasing the inference speed of a neural network may require adding complexity to the model.
As with other types of software, there's often a trade-off between speed and size in neural networks.

Admittedly I don't know how speed-optimized FSD Beta already is, how much knowledge distillation and other measures they do before they send it out to the cars and how close the HW3 computers already are to bursting at the seams. Would be very interesting to hear if anybody has more insight.
 
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I just got it a couple days ago and installed it this morning.
And I just tried the update: It's there, and downloading. Very, very slowly.

Y'know, the, "You've disengaged? What went wrong?" prompt is still there on 11.3.6 and, I presume, 11.4.2. To my mind, that means that Tesla is still collecting data on Why Disengagements on all the current versions out there. Maybe doing comparative studies on what disengagements are in there for what reasons, which fits with the incremental improvements stuff. Dunno.
 
Some quick comments on HW3 and 11.4.2. One problem that I experienced with 11.4.1 moving left prior to a freeway exit, and then cutting back over as if it suddenly remembered that it had to exit is now fixed at the location where 11.4.1 would always have an issue. 11.4.2 stayed in the right hand lane, and exited smoothly.

On my way home today, I approached a stop sign at a T junction. The car stopped in its normal stop well before the stop sign and then creep towards the turn, and then it turned the wrong direction. The display indicated a left turn towards my house as it should, and then, out of nowhere, it turned right and indicated that it was going to drive about one mile down the road in the opposite direction and make a U-turn. Needless to say, I put an end to that plan and flipped a u-turn manually. All I could think was… WTF was that???? Maybe it brain-farted. I will try this again tomorrow to see if I can repeat the problem.

Joe
 
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The display indicated a left turn towards my house as it should, and then, out of nowhere, it turned right and indicated that it was going to drive about one mile down the road in the opposite direction and make a U-turn.
There is some bug they have introduced in 11.4.2 around planning. It's not a regression... FSD never did these kinds of things in any previous release.
 
There was no warning, but also no strike. Just red take over immediately hands…. and four ways lol. This never happened before 11.4 🔥🔥

I’ll try to recreate it in a couple mins when I get back home. The Junk hates me using my phone to record its behavior, let’s see if I get another strike 🤣🤣
I can recreate it at my gate 100% of the time. 100%.
 
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