Since Ford has been throwing some shade in Tesla's direction recently, I thought it might be a good idea to take a closer look at Ford's own situation. First some brief background: Ford was the only one of the US "big three" to avoid bankruptcy several years back, in part by getting a huge government loan, supposedly for the development of new-technology vehicles (such as electric cars!), but in reality it was just a bailout. However, bailing Ford out and avoiding bankruptcy left them with a massive debt load (far worse than Tesla!) that GM and Chrysler were able to write off and leave behind.
That huge debt is only sustainable because Ford have a "cash cow" in their massively popular and profitable F-series pickup trucks. Creditors and shareholders are not too worried as long as Ford can keep raking in the dough from millions of F-150 sales. However, Ford's product catalog has become narrower over the years, and their business is now highly dependent on their pickup trucks.
Also worth noting: Ford's last CEO was ousted at least partially due to his failure to support plug-in vehicle R&D within the company. The current CEO has the mandate to do this, but we haven't seen the effort bear any visible fruit yet. So, who knows what they are working on behind closed doors?
Ford's situation today reminds me of Kodak. Contrary to the urban myth, Kodak was not blindsided by the appearance of digital photography. They invented the first digital camera, and their management were well aware that digital photography was the future, and they even got into that market with some early success. (Kodak digital cameras were outselling Canon for a while.) However, their cash cow that kept bringing in the big money and supporting the company was film and processing—right up until that cash cow flopped over and died much more suddenly than anyone expected. There was simply no way for Kodak to deal with that.
Ford today should be urgently, very urgently, working to develop an electric (or perhaps PHEV, if not both) pickup truck to replace the F-150. If they don't, they're going to be in for a world of hurt after another company, any other company, successfully rolls one out. And they'll also need a huge source of batteries to go in all those electric pickups. Better hope they're getting ready for that. Frankly, I'm not optimistic for them, even if they see what's coming. It might already be too late.
That huge debt is only sustainable because Ford have a "cash cow" in their massively popular and profitable F-series pickup trucks. Creditors and shareholders are not too worried as long as Ford can keep raking in the dough from millions of F-150 sales. However, Ford's product catalog has become narrower over the years, and their business is now highly dependent on their pickup trucks.
Also worth noting: Ford's last CEO was ousted at least partially due to his failure to support plug-in vehicle R&D within the company. The current CEO has the mandate to do this, but we haven't seen the effort bear any visible fruit yet. So, who knows what they are working on behind closed doors?
Ford's situation today reminds me of Kodak. Contrary to the urban myth, Kodak was not blindsided by the appearance of digital photography. They invented the first digital camera, and their management were well aware that digital photography was the future, and they even got into that market with some early success. (Kodak digital cameras were outselling Canon for a while.) However, their cash cow that kept bringing in the big money and supporting the company was film and processing—right up until that cash cow flopped over and died much more suddenly than anyone expected. There was simply no way for Kodak to deal with that.
Ford today should be urgently, very urgently, working to develop an electric (or perhaps PHEV, if not both) pickup truck to replace the F-150. If they don't, they're going to be in for a world of hurt after another company, any other company, successfully rolls one out. And they'll also need a huge source of batteries to go in all those electric pickups. Better hope they're getting ready for that. Frankly, I'm not optimistic for them, even if they see what's coming. It might already be too late.