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For AWD owners wanting a P3D-
- Thread starter Urbancowboy
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well, no, because P3D- owners had to give that up to get the price down to "only" 5k more.
(and you'd need to drive a CRAZY amount of supercharger-only miles to make it actually worth 3-5k... even when Tesla sold FUSC as an option by itself they didn't charge that much for it)
... what?
Nobody's asking to "pay to get an official P3D-" they're asking to "pay to get the P software on their AWD car"
Folks with 19s already paid extra for those, and are totally irrelevant to the situation either way.
That's nonsensical.
It's 3x the actual net pre-sale cost...and it's significantly more than the P3D plus difference.
That would be more likely if the P3D- was still sold.
But it's not.
So the AWD upgrade wouldn't be a "real' performance car today since you wouldn't get the brakes, 20s, pedals, (alleged) spoiler, etc...
That brings up another option of course.
Offer TWO items for sale to AWD owners.
$3000 for just the acceleration unlock.
$3000 for just track mode.
I bet some folks would be happy to only buy one of those, and some would be happy to buy both, and Tesla would net more cash overall than only offering both for 6k.
MrBadger
Badger out
It might not be in US but is in UK (and I think other regions.)
Difference between LR AWD and P3D- is approx. $1550 based upon Tesla's $/£ exchange rate for similar software unlock features. ie 1/4 the above pricing.
Well we are now up to 344 supporters and growing. Not too shabby.
I am thinking about messaging everyone who signed with a canned tweet we can send to Elon tomorrow. Let's crowdsource this and I'll pick the best one. Here are a couple options to get things started.
Option 1:
@elonmusk, in an ironic celebration of our independence, several hundred of us Model 3 owners wish to be more like our @tesla friends in the UK. Can you make this come true? Congrats on an epic Q2 We love you Sign the Petition
Option 2:
@elonmusk, it's 4th of July and I want to make my rocket faster So do a bunch of other Model 3 owners. Please take our money and make our dreams come true Congrats on an epic Q2 We love you Sign the Petition
Whatcha got everyone? Gotta have emojis and be over-the-top to have a shot at getting any attention.
EDIT: Dang, emojis aren't supported on the forums. I'll add them in later.
I am thinking about messaging everyone who signed with a canned tweet we can send to Elon tomorrow. Let's crowdsource this and I'll pick the best one. Here are a couple options to get things started.
Option 1:
@elonmusk, in an ironic celebration of our independence, several hundred of us Model 3 owners wish to be more like our @tesla friends in the UK. Can you make this come true? Congrats on an epic Q2 We love you Sign the Petition
Option 2:
@elonmusk, it's 4th of July and I want to make my rocket faster So do a bunch of other Model 3 owners. Please take our money and make our dreams come true Congrats on an epic Q2 We love you Sign the Petition
Whatcha got everyone? Gotta have emojis and be over-the-top to have a shot at getting any attention.
EDIT: Dang, emojis aren't supported on the forums. I'll add them in later.
I like this idea. I think it has to be higher in price to make sense for Tesla. Maybe $6k for acceleration and $2k for track mode, $7k bundled. Making the spoiler, 20" wheels, etc "worth" about 3k.
It has to make them money and bring it close enough to the P3D+ for it to be profitable and not eat into sales of their biggest money maker.
$3k for the acceleration is way too low, no one would buy the p3d+ as its cheaper/better to buy your own forged wheels, spoiler, brake kit for the difference saved.
They still are selling FSD for the same $6K for pre or post delivery. About 3 days after my delivery in mid-May they dropped the post-delivery price from $8K to $6K.
Any upgrade option is going to make them money. It doesn't cost them anything to unlock the AWD models. Is it possible that it will cannibalize P3D+ sales? Sure, but if I pay them $3K (or $5K) for my already purchased AWD, it's just extra profit.
I think above $6K, they price out a lot of possible upgraders. Maybe you're right and the breakdown should be different, say $5K for acceleration and $1K for track mode, $6K total, regardless of bundling. I just think that there needs to be more than a $3K delta for cheaper wheels, brakes, and suspension, especially for those that purchased the 19" wheels. I would have purchased a P3D- in a heart beat if it was an option.
Telsa sold unlimited supercharging at 2K and said that was undervaluing the option. So it would be 2K + 5K at least to get the speed bump if you wanted to make everything even. But then you have cannibalized performance model sales since people can just buy an AWD and upgrade them to performance models for 7k, which is cheaper than the 10K premium right now.
The best option here is to make an P3D- upgrade available but charge a premium for it, lets say 12K-15K. Thus, people who really really wanted to upgrade can still do the upgrade but the best deal is to really get the performance version. Again, this is a win-win for AWD owners since they can upgrade to P3D- (alot of people have regrets about not buying performance, now they can pay a small premium to get it) and Tesla gets instant cash flow and earnings.
Breakdown should be 10K for accelleration and 2-5K for track mode. Anything else would make the regular performance model 3 not worth the money. Plus, there seems to be at least 300 people looking to upgrade their cars, at 15K each, that is 4.5 million in cash flow for tesla.
I would say 9k upgrade for 3.5 seconds. 10K for the full 3.2 seconds. Extra 2-5k for track mode. Any price that is lower would cannibalize regular performance model sales since people will just buy AWD and upgrade for cheaper.
Current diff between LR AWD and P3D is about $10k
differences: wheels/tires, carbon spoiler, suspension being lower and of course software (3.2secs, track mode)
I think anywhere from $5k to $6k is fair to upgrade to 3.5secs performance, w/o the other upgrades. And no option for full 3.2secs to give enough incentive for people to go with a P3D from the start.
No, 300 people signed a petition for a $5K option to increase their performance. No one would sign a petition to pay $15K. It makes no sense.
The best move for Tesla is the one that maximizes profits, not the one that maintains Performance unit sales.
What we know for certain is the gross margins on a software unlock are significantly greater than those on the PUP.
We can also reasonably assume demand for the full performance trim is far less than LR AWD demand.
So for Tesla, it would theoretically be better to get more LR AWD buyers to spring for the very high-margin P3D- upgrade than to protect sales of the full Performance upgrade. At some middle ground, there will still be people who want the PUP and pay for it.
A $10k+ upgrade is likely not a profit-maximizing price. Of course without the internal details on cost and demand, it's impossible to know what the ideal price would be, but the UK menu is about the most useful data point we have right now.
At some point they could split out all these possibilities and charge individually but we haven't seen anything like that. Keep it simple with $5k for AWD to P3D- upgrade (which is a software only upgrade so no cost to Tesla). Not sure if any AWD had Free Unlimited Supercharging but if they did, they would have to give it up to be able to upgrade for $5k. This should not upset any current P3D- or P3D+ owners. But it will cannibalize P3D+ sales.
You are correct. Especially if it went for 5K (as many people are begging
If the best way to maximize profits is to have a P3D- be 5K more, then they would have done it. They haven't because the wheels,tires,brakes, and other extras cost Tesla far less than 5k so they would be sacrificing one of their highest margin trims.
In fact, I would argue that the best strategy for Tesla is to keep the AWD cars corked. When AWD owners trade their cars in, tesla can uncork them and have an easier time selling them used for a bigger margin.
Well, how many people would sign a petition for a $0 option to increase their performance? Your 5K proposal doesn't make sense for Tesla. I believe they would rather let the cars be corked and when AWD owners trade their cars in, tesla can uncork those cars themselves and capture all the extra margin themselves.
Not necessarily. And who's to say this isn't what they're doing in the UK? Or at least gathering data?
It's not this simple.
Let's assume for a minute that the software unlock was $6k @ 90% margins and the full $10k PUP throws off a 65% blended margin between SW and HW.
Here are the differential profit scenarios:
LR AWD to P3D-: +$5,400
LR AWD to P3D+: +$6,500
P3D+ to P3D-: -$1,100
If offering the P3D- gets 10 prospective LR AWD buyers to upgrade and causes 5 P3D+ buyers to downgrade (2:1 exchange), it's a net profit gain of $48,500 (10*5400 - 5*1100) across those 15 customers. Even a 1:1 exchange creates a positive net profit gain of $4,300.
Put another way, in this scenario it would take almost a 5:1 ratio of P3D+ downgrades to LR AWD upgrades to even reach breakeven.
We know total demand for LR AWD is much greater than Performance, which means it's very unlikely you would ever get to even a 1:1 exchange.
Of course there is margin speculation happening here, but even if the full PUP had identical margins as the software unlock, Tesla is still making incremental net profit at a 1:1 exchange.
Of course everyone would want a free upgrade, that's not what anyone's discussed in this thread.
Why would Tesla want to unlimit used AWDs? Because the demand for used P3D- would be so high? You're arguing against your own position. The software is already developed, Tesla captures the whole margin regardless.
But they capture no margin at a $15K option, because no one will pay it. Those that really want the increased speed will buy a P3D+ and downgrade their wheels to aftermarkets for $2K, saving themselves $3K in the process (assuming they don't sell the 20s after the fact, but you could probably get it done for just the $10K price difference for a P3D+). I can't tell if you're intentionally being ridiculous to try to make a point or not.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes, but Teslas says lots of crazy things unsupported by facts. That would be one of em.
Meanwhile 2k is what they actually sold it for, so that'd be the most you could value it at objectively. (The fact anybody turned down a $5000 cash refund in exchange for it is nuts IMHO-especially when it wouldn't transfer with the car anyway)
Well, no, it wouldn't.
Because AWD owners never got free supercharging and wouldn't get it with this upgrade.
And P3D- owners who took the refund didn't end up with it either.
So the only remaining difference was the $5000 extra the P3D- owners paid for the software unlocks. Thus $5000 would make it even.
They can't though- because Tesla doesn't sell the P3D-
The fact they discontinued the P3D- in the US makes it much easier to offer the AWD unlock for a roughly comparable 5-6k as what the P3D- upcharge ended up being- since there's no P3D- sales to cannibalize.
And they can't add the current P hardware to their existing AWD car for any price (well, short of tearing down a salvaged one and wiping their butt with their warranty swapping the suspension, brakes, wheels, etc....) so folks who actually want that stuff still need to pay 10k up front for it.
So you're estimating the brakes, suspension, wheels, pedals/spoiler, and tires on the current P to be worth... literally nothing?
Otherwise your math doesn't make sense.
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