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Farmington, NM to Page, AZ Superchargers - Sweat it or not?

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I'm planning a long distance cross-country trip in my Model 3 LR in August; but when I was planning it this past February, A Better Route Planner was strongly suggesting I couldn't make it from the Farmington, New Mexico Supercharger to the one in Page, AZ.

Fortunately, when I plug in my anticipated travel day in August, it suggests I'll make it with 10% power to spare (which is the "Mendoza Line" for me -- the Arizona desert in August is the last place I want to run out of juice).

For those who've made that trek, should I sweat it (by even not turning on the AC!), or is it doable? I realize I can wait until I get to the Farmington Supercharger to find out what Nav is telling me at that moment; but I'd rather go to Plan B well before then if I can't make it!

Seems like a Supercharger in Kayenta, AZ would solve the challenge; but, no such luck . . . yet.

Thanks for any replies.
 
How fast did you tell ABRP you are going to drive ?
Keep in mind that ABRP has no idea about wind, or your cabin conditioning usage. Are you feeling lucky ?

My personal rule that I try very hard to never break is this: I don't take routes that cut it close range wise unless I have at least a plan 'B', and preferably also a plan 'C'. If running out means I'm stuck in a deserted desert I get stringent.
 
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Fortunately, when I plug in my anticipated travel day in August, it suggests I'll make it with 10% power to spare (which is the "Mendoza Line" for me -- the Arizona desert in August is the last place I want to run out of juice).

Having lived in the Phoenix area for a number of years I can assure you that you don't want to be stuck anywhere near the SW in August! Personally, I wouldn't do a 224 mile drive through the desert (you'll have A/C on as well) without a contingency plan, and no, I don't mean water.

After a week of ownership I'm seeing up to 40% loss on stated mileage, which means I drive 30 miles, range drops 50 miles, .etc. In some cases I'll lose 10 miles of range in 4 miles. Standard mode could have something to do with it, but whatever it is, I feel like I only truly have 200 miles of range when I start at 300.

You may not experience this.

It very well could be my driving style plus the fact I always have A/C on.

That being said, 224 feels like at moderate speed, with no A/C and a full charge; doable. I'd just be too scared of the variables to try it.
 
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I wouldn't hesitate to do the Farmington-Page leg in a model 3 LR with 82kw battery.

I would start at 100% with a preconditioned battery, start early to minimize the need for AC and keep an eye on the trip energy projection.

You could avoid any risk by staying overnight in Bluff or Monument Valley instead of Farmington. Either one is an hour detour but have options listed on plugshare.
 
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There is a destination charger in Tuba city Az, if you can plan a stop overnight there. It's 199 miles away from Farmington, little closer, but ads 50 more miles total to get to Page Az. Just an option to think about. Found it searching the tesla destination site. I would definitely call that location to verify its still there and operational.
 
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How fast did you tell ABRP you are going to drive ?
Keep in mind that ABRP has no idea about wind, or your cabin conditioning usage. Are you feeling lucky ?

My personal rule that I try very hard to never break is this: I don't take routes that cut it close range wise unless I have at least a plan 'B', and preferably also a plan 'C'. If running out means I'm stuck in a deserted desert I get stringent.
Good advice about having plans B & C. if you decide to drive this route be prepared. Make sure you have extra supplies & even tire repair materials including a compressor. There is one for sale on the Tesla website. Distances between places with people & facilities are often large. Stand at the South Rim of the Grand Canyon & look across to the North Rim. It’s about 5 miles away. Driving there is a different matter. It’s 200 miles one way. Cell phone coverage in parts of the desert is spotty.
A glance at the Weather Channel app shows current conditions this evening, about 10:00 PM, the temp is 83 degrees with a flood warning. Flash floods are something to take seriously. It can be very dry & flat where you are & yet you can be overwhelmed quickly by a thunderstorm many miles away. The desert is often deceptive. It looks easy until it isn’t.
Your range will be affected by weight, wind & temperature, especially wind since you’re driving west. Let us know what you decide to do. I’m thinking about a trip through Arizona later this year. It would be our first trip through there in an EV. I love the Arizona desert. The scenery is stunning.
 
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If you can choose your travel time line, I would try to avoid driving to Farmington during the hottest time of the day.

Doing a Google search for "Weather in Farmington, New Mexico", currently in late July
from noon to earlier evening the temperature is in the 80 degree Fahrenheit.

Also with A Better Route Planner, you can use different settings,
in particular speed, temperature, and estimated consumption to evaluate those effects on the range.
 
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After a week of ownership I'm seeing up to 40% loss on stated mileage, which means I drive 30 miles, range drops 50 miles, .etc. In some cases I'll lose 10 miles of range in 4 miles. Standard mode could have something to do with it, but whatever it is, I feel like I only truly have 200 miles of range when I start at 300.
In my opinion a week of ownership is too little experience to extrapolate such broad trends; you probably haven’t even broken your tires in yet. Give it a full four seasons worth of driving experience before drawing strong conclusions.
 
A handy tool while driving is to look on the energy page for the trip. It will show you your actual consumption vs the expected. So, while on the route, if you’re trending worse than expected, slow down a bit. Aerodynamic drag is a huge range killer. I find that in 70 to 80 degree weather, if I drive about 72 mph, my actual range beats the EPA range. What’s the speed limit on that stretch?

Oh, as someone else mentioned, check the wind conditions. If your consumption is a lot higher than expected for your speed, it’s probably the wind.
 
Check out the elevation map from Google Maps in Bicycle mode.
It is read from Left to Right. Ignore the grey line.

There is a net elevation gain of about 1500 feet at 175 miles into the trip. How much extra weight is the car pulling that ABRP is unaware of ?

Screen Shot 2021-07-26 at 3.05.09 AM.png
 
Google Maps says 232 miles between the two superchargers. I see you have a 2020 LR in your sig with 19" wheels so no aeros. Not sure how long you've driven the car or what range 100% charge gives you. However, 232 miles seems doable to me even with AC on (not on full blast for the whole trip) and autopilot set to 70 mph (if you drove at 60 or 65 mph you would be even more likely to make it). I feel like you would still arrive with at least 10% charge. I agree with others that making this trip in the morning is a good idea. Also I mean absolutely worst case scenario you are 5 miles from town and a tow truck comes and gets you...you wouldn't be in the desert stranded.
 
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ABRP (or any driving aid) is only as good as its inputs. I think it is worthwhile to list those variables that affect range that are usually not taken into account by ABRP (although I think some can be):

  • Wind -- this is a big one, and can change consumption dramatically
  • Loaded car weight. This comes into play when going up
  • Road conditions, like rain, ice, snow, mud, dirt or tarmac in poor (rough) condition
  • AC usage (heating or cooling): this can be the better part of 5 kW
  • Under-inflated tyres
I'm a fan of ABRP for pre-planning, but nothing can substitute for the on-the-road energy consumption analysis that the car does, shown on the energy trip graph. As said above, it you are driving below the estimated consumption line, slow down. If that is too annoying or not enough, switch to a backup plan. This is particularly true early in the trip.

A good rule of thumb for these high energy consumption trip legs is to drive conservatively (mostly speed wise, sometimes A/C) for the first 1/3 of the leg, and then if you have energy to spare later on, use it on the last 1/3 of the leg
 
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So your contention is that the OP could only get 150-175 miles on his journey and would be stranded ~50 miles from Page, AZ in the desert? Is that really your contention? The OP is only gunna get 150-175 miles on his Model 3 LR? Your lack of experience is showing.
My first contention is that he is not going to get stranded going down-hill.
My second contention is that his SoC will nadir at ~ 175 miles, about 1500 feet above his starting point.

Whether he gets stranded depends. Try putting in 90 mph speed in ABRP to simulate 70 mph driving and a 20 mph headwind to see if he makes it. Add in 3 - 5 kW fixed cabin conditioning for a more realistic estimate. Consider that unless he uses Farmington as a destination charge point, he may not leave with 100% SoC

I live in the SW, and I drive in our mountain ranges. Learn from the experience of others.
 
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My first contention is that he is not going to get stranded going down-hill.
My second contention is that his SoC will nadir at ~ 175 miles, about 1500 feet above his starting point.

Whether he gets stranded depends. Try putting in 90 mph speed in ABRP to simulate 70 mph driving and a 20 mph headwind to see if he makes it. Add in 3 - 5 kW fixed cabin conditioning for a more realistic estimate. Consider that unless he uses Farmington as a destination charge point, he may not leave with 100% SoC

I live in the SW, and I drive in our mountain ranges. Learn from the experience of others.
Instead of quoting my original post and being rude out of nowhere, you could simply say "Here's my personal thoughts from my own life experiences and why I disagree with X, Y, or Z."

People sure are chippy on the internet for no reason when typing behind a faceless keyboard smh...
 
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I'm planning a long distance cross-country trip in my Model 3 LR in August; but when I was planning it this past February, A Better Route Planner was strongly suggesting I couldn't make it from the Farmington, New Mexico Supercharger to the one in Page, AZ.

Fortunately, when I plug in my anticipated travel day in August, it suggests I'll make it with 10% power to spare (which is the "Mendoza Line" for me -- the Arizona desert in August is the last place I want to run out of juice).

For those who've made that trek, should I sweat it (by even not turning on the AC!), or is it doable? I realize I can wait until I get to the Farmington Supercharger to find out what Nav is telling me at that moment; but I'd rather go to Plan B well before then if I can't make it!

Seems like a Supercharger in Kayenta, AZ would solve the challenge; but, no such luck . . . yet.

Thanks for any replies.
ABRP is showing no issues going 115% of speed limit, averaging 70mph, even with the big elevation change after half way. SOC usage is 83%. Of course, you're running 19s. I would check your calibrated efficiency in ABRP and you'll get a better estimate. In my simulation it shows 257Wh/mile, but that's using my car's calibrated efficiency of 245Wh/mile at 65mph.
 
A thought --

L2 charging is available 20 miles North of Kayenta.
It *may* be reasonable to take the journey, and re-evaluate in Kayenta. If things are looking marginal then drive to Monument Valley for extra charge.

Perhaps @gene or @dgpcolorado can chime in. I think they have the most experience
The only way I can manage to get through that area is to slow charge at one of the Monument Valley RV parks. I just camp overnight at Gouldings Lodge and Campground — the RV pedestals have 14-50 outlets.

Longer range cars should be able to make Blanding UT to Flagstaff AZ ( 251 miles); Farmington NM to Flagstaff (284 miles); Farmington to Page AZ (231 miles); Blanding to Page (200 miles) on a single charge. Assuming no headwinds! But that may not allow for much exploring of the area (Mesa Verde National Park, for example).

Since these highways have relatively slow speed limits, as opposed to 80 mph freeways, the actual distance and "rated miles" are roughly the same, for any reasonably careful driver, IME.

FWIW. I still think that the lack of charging in Kayenta is a glaring hole in the Supercharger network. Even reliable L2 in Kayenta would be a big help IMO.
 
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I'd look at two things before doing that route, your average energy consumption from the trip computers, and the weather. I've never reset Trip B so I have it over the lifetime of the car and it's been 6000 miles since I last reset Trip A so I know how I've been doing over that period. If you have a Trip screen that covers a long time it will tell you how efficient your car is under average conditions. The EPA number is approx 234Wh/mile, compare your number to that. Also flip between range and distance on the display to get a rough idea of your battery degradation. I'd also keep a close eye on the weather report for that route. If it's a moderate day, 80F or so, the AC won't have a big effect on your range. If it's something awful like 110 or 120 then it will, I have no experience with that because live in New England but someone else in this thread ought to be able to give you an idea. Basic thermodynamics says the heat pump is going to use a lot of energy if it has to drop the temperature 40 or 50 degrees to keep you and your battery alive but I can't give you the exact number. On the off chance it's raining I can give you a number, it's been raining almost everyday in New England, I've seen a 10-20% energy consumption hit depending on how bad the rain is. If you drive like me, i.e. a light foot and at moderate speeds then 225 miles is very doable in moderate weather and a small increase in elevation. If the weather is extreme or you drive like you're on fire then I'd look for another route.
 
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