EV Tax Credit

[bro1999]

 

[McHoffa]

This thread has turned into Facebook. Let's just hope the tax credit makes it through the final bill.

 

[Unpilot]

It seem pretty apparent that some kind of UBI will be required as some point.

 

[Electroman]

As an environmentalist it is a moral imperative to oppose trump.

As a decent human being, it is a moral imperative to oppose trump

 

[FutureShock]

I'd guess 80% or more of Tesla owners are Trumpists.

Not to hate on your guessing abilities, but... I really doubt it.

Especially considering how many Teslas are sold in California (i.e. a LOT), and the fact that Trump lost California by over 30 points.

Also, many 'Trumpists' aren't exactly environmentalists, but many EV buyers are. Pretty hard for an EV buyer with any pro-environment leanings at all to square the circle of supporting a guy who pulled us out of the Paris agreements, is a climate-change denieer, and who's actively trying to ram dirty ol' coal as an energy source down all our throats.

I'd be a bit surprised if even 30% of Tesla buyers were 'Trumpists'. And that actually isn't much below Trump's current overall approval rating (37%, last I checked).


.

 

[Electroman]

Also, many 'Trumpists' aren't exactly environmentalists

I wish someone does a poll of flat earthers, and I wouldn't be surprised if Trumpists are the highest percentage.

 

[flamingoezz]

Curious on status of the tax credit. Anyone have figures on how many US teslas sold? What are the projections for the 200K car being delivered, with Model 3 deliveries not hitting elon's projections?

 

[ElecFan]

Curious on status of the tax credit. Anyone have figures on how many US teslas sold? What are the projections for the 200K car being delivered, with Model 3 deliveries not hitting elon's projections?

For projections: Model 3 delivery estimator
200k mark in Q2 is most probable.

 

[McHoffa]

For projections: Model 3 delivery estimator
200k mark in Q2 is most probable.

All but guaranteed unless Tesla only delivers 750 Model 3s per week through June 30.

 

[OCR1]

All but guaranteed unless Tesla only delivers 750 Model 3s per week through June 30.

If I am understanding the rules correctly, this means we would still be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit as long as we take delivery of the vehicle by September 30, 2018?

 

[RTPEV]

If I am understanding the rules correctly, this means we would still be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit as long as we take delivery of the vehicle by September 30, 2018?

Correct.

Last hard data we have is Tesla at 161,571 at the end of December.

My latest estimate based on what appears to be the current ramp (based on Tesla guidance as well as empirical evidence from the Model 3 invites spreadsheet ) is that they are around 190,306 as of March 31. Definitely puts them into 2Q.

 

[smak]

All but guaranteed unless Tesla only delivers 750 Model 3s per week through June 30.

I think it's even less.

If they are at 162k through q4, and do 24k total S/X i the first 2 quarters, that would leave only 538 model 3's a week to get to 200k.

 

[McHoffa]

I think it's even less.

If they are at 162k through q4, and do 24k total S/X i the first 2 quarters, that would leave only 538 model 3's a week to get to 200k.

I was estimating off 10k S/X in Q1 and Q2. Either way, it's pretty much guaranteed to happen in Q2.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Ryan McCaffrey from Ride the Lightning podcast claims to "Have it on good authority" that the decision to move Canadian deliveries up to Mid 2018 (and delay new deliveries of Model X until June) is to extend the tax credit to 31 Dec 2018. Take it for what it's worth.

 

[Rogue one]

Ryan McCaffrey from Ride the Lightning podcast claims to "Have it on good authority" that the decision to move Canadian deliveries up to Mid 2018 (and delay new deliveries of Model X until June) is to extend the tax credit to 31 Dec 2018. Take it for what it's worth.

That would make me happy, and put me firmly within full tax rebate Territory, assuming no further delays of course....

 

[smak]

Delay Model X starting when?

 

[dsvick]

Delay Model X starting when?

Probably not until close to then end of whatever quarter it is they are trying not to hit 200,000 in. So, if they are trying to extend it to the end of the year that means they want to hit it in Q3, so it sounds like late Q2 model S and X could get delayed or shifted out of the US.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Delay Model X starting when?

Now. Website shows newly ordered ones have June delivery date.

 

[Rogue one]

Now. Website shows newly ordered ones have June delivery date.

I seems odd that they would list June, as Justine is still pard if 2nd quarter sales...

 

[smak]

It seems odder that they would purposely not sell 4 1/2 months worth of X's, which is probably around 14-15k cars, which is probably over a billion in sales.