I don't think the picture for the ICEmakers is quite as rosy as you have rationalized.
cleantechnica.com
Thanks for sharing... the future does not look good for a number of the large legacy automakers.Tesla US Sales Up 104% While US Auto Industry Down 22% - CleanTechnica
Comparing the 3rd quarter of 2021 to the 3rd quarter of 2020, US Tesla sales were up 67% while overall US auto sales were down 13%. Compared to 2019, the difference was even more stark — Tesla sales were up 104% and US auto sales were down 22%.
Many sound points here. I would point out that it is incredibly hard to gain market share in a mature market, and that has been a major challenge for Toyota competing ICEVs against ICEV makers. China automaker were too late to the party to become serious exporters of ICEVs. But the disruption of the ICE market by BEV is the golden ticket for Chinese automakers to become world class EV exporters. As a collective, Chinese EV makers could definitely take 50% of the global auto market. So for me, I think the main challenge to Tesla grabbing upwards of 25% market share are these Chinese EV makers.
You have to separate pack/motor/power electronics manufacturing from the other 90% of it.
The stuff that transfers over is really hard to double in cumulative production because cumulative production is already very large. So these are not the areas where the learning rate is going to translate into much of an annual decline is in cost. Things like the bolting seats directly onto the upper plate of the battery pack before assembly to the rest of the car are very much the kind unexpected efficiencies that you don't learn by building hybrids that have small, non-structural battery packs. These are the kinds of subtleties that translate into it taking VW 30 hours to build an ID, while Tesla is bearing down on 10 to build a MY. Wright's law deals with the total cost of manufacturing, not just the sum of the parts.
Yes, I tend to prefer a good economic analysis to political considerations. Are you suggesting that China can't achieve a 50% market share of the global market on grounds of national politics? Or where would you set that upper limit if other than 50%? On the low side, the Chinese domestic market is about a 1/3 of the global market. If China can get a 1/3 of the market outside of their domestic market, this puts 50% of global within range. We seem to agree that through much of non-OECD countries excluding a few like India, China can do well, especially with very low cost cars (under $10k). So how about the EU and the US? Do we think Chinese imports to the tune of 1/4 to 1/3 of the domestic market would be politically intolerable? So I think you make good political points, and I think we could take the analysis a bit further by looking as the size of national markets and setting reasonable limits on imports from China.
www.teslarati.com
China looks about right but US should be ~3% with Canada a bit less. Tesla sold ~100k in the US in Q3, total vehicle sales were 3.4m. Europe also looks low, including the UK Tesla sold 46k out of less than 3m total, for more than 1.5%.
Yes, but I didn't do the math until you posted. But I misread it, anyway. My numbers are for Q3 only while the slide says TTM. That's why I couldn't get them to line up.
Here is the complete slide and link to the presentation for better context on Tesla's future capacity planning.
Love those charts.
Yeah, there seems to be some seasonal behavior here. I'm not sure what accounts for it as seasonal variation would impact both BEV production and non-BEV production. I would have expected this to cancel out. Perhaps there are regulatory drivers that push automakers to catch up by the end of the calendar year.
Q4 channel stuffing was huge in Europe last year, but ICE sales took a hit the past few months due to supply chain issues so most OEMs appear to be on target for their EV quotas this year. China should have their normal giant Q4 surge which is partly seasonal and partly regulatory. US is mostly Tesla and too small to matter.
