Still playing with data, decided to add a seasonal term. The experience of 2019 is really bucking the trend likely for reasons @Doggydogworld has outlined. Thanks!
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Since the real world is starting to outpace your curve, you may need to scrunch down your timeline by a few years.Still playing with data, decided to add a seasonal term. The experience of 2019 is really bucking the trend likely for reasons @Doggydogworld has outlined. Thanks!
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We'll see. My aim as a statistician is to build models simple enough that one can tell where they go wrong.Since the real world is starting to outpace your curve, you may need to scrunch down your timeline by a few years.
Company | Sales 2020 | Sales 2025 (projections) | Market cap (Oct '21, USD) |
---|---|---|---|
Tesla | 499,000 | 2.8M | $1.023T |
Volkswagen Group | 230,000 | 1.5M | $170B |
BYD | 136,000 | 377,000 | $113B |
SGMW (GM, Wulling Motors, SAIC) | 211,000 | 1.1M | $89B |
BMW | 48,000 | 455,000 | $67B |
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) | 55,000 | 483,000 | $103B |
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi | 191,000 | 606,000 | $39B |
Geely | 40,000 | 382,000 | $34B |
Hyundai -Kia | 145,000 | 750,000 | $112B |
Stellantis | 82,000 | 931,000 | $63B |
Toyota | 11,000 | 382,000 | $240B |
Ford | 1,400 | 282,000 | $63B |
"EVs Could Outsell Gas Cars by 2040"Interesting infographic to outline the 2020-2025 EV market forecast from Visual Capitalist.
Electric Car Companies: Visualizing the Race for EV Dominance
Tesla was the first automaker to hit a $1 trillion market cap, but other electric car companies have plans to unseat the dominant EV maker.elements.visualcapitalist.com
Company Sales 2020 Sales 2025 (projections) Market cap (Oct '21, USD) Tesla 499,000 2.8M $1.023T Volkswagen Group 230,000 1.5M $170B BYD 136,000 377,000 $113B SGMW (GM, Wulling Motors, SAIC) 211,000 1.1M $89B BMW 48,000 455,000 $67B Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) 55,000 483,000 $103B Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi 191,000 606,000 $39B Geely 40,000 382,000 $34B Hyundai -Kia 145,000 750,000 $112B Stellantis 82,000 931,000 $63B Toyota 11,000 382,000 $240B Ford 1,400 282,000 $63B
"EVs Could Outsell Gas Cars by 2040"
Another clueless "analyst". (probably off by 10-15 years)
I'm confused, are they doubling from today, or is the two year target doubling from what the target was?
I'm confused, are they doubling from today, or is the two year target doubling from what the target was?
Ford (incl Lincoln) has to sell ~200k/year EVs in Europe by then to meet 95g. I figure most will be MEBs built in Europe, plus continued Mach E sales.According to post 545 upthread on this page the target was 282k in 2025.
New target is a run rate of 600k BEVs by December 2023.
This is before their new battery GF and new electric vehicle factories open.
Which suggest 2nd and possible 3rd shift for Mach-e.
And new production line for Lightning somewhere.
Meanwhile, GM appears to be going nowhere.Ford (incl Lincoln) has to sell ~200k/year EVs in Europe by then to meet 95g. I figure most will be MEBs built in Europe, plus continued Mach E sales.
They sell enough vehicles in China that I guess they'll need ~100k/year there by then. Maybe more if they pursue the Mini segment.
So a 300k/year run rate in North America two years from now? That's ambitious. I don't see 100k+ Mach Es without much lower pricing. Lincoln models are very low volume. That leaves Lightning. I strongly suspect fleet orders. Those guys buy on TCO, and many value the green PR. They also do enough volume to convince Ford to integrate Lightning into the main production lines instead of assembling them in the side factory.
But.... ?!? Biden told us that GM was leading the EV revolution????Meanwhile, GM appears to be going nowhere.
GM promised 20 new EVs by 2023. They brought zero to the LA Auto Show
GM said it would release 20 new EVs by 2023. How's that going? If GM's LA Auto Show booth is any indication, not very well.electrek.co
"In October 2017, GM announced that it would release 20 new EVs by 2023 – just over five years from then, and just over one year from now. How’s that going? If GM’s booth at the LA Auto Show is any indication (and it is): Not very well. This complete lack of anything electric is made worse by the fact that GM promised it wouldn’t be this way. In October 2017, GM said they would have “at least 20 new all-electric vehicles that will launch by 2023.” GM president Mark Reuss added that “these aren’t just words in a war of press releases.” And one year ago, they upped that ante to 30 new EVs by 2025. At the time, GM was producing exactly one EV, the Chevy Bolt, and one PHEV, the Chevy Volt. Now, it is currently producing exactly zero EVs, since the Volt is out of production and Chevy Bolt EV lines are currently halted.
GM has had four years out of the five they gave themselves, and they haven’t made any progress whatsoever on their promise. They’ve launched one EV (Bolt EUV) and stopped three production lines (Volt, and temporarily the Bolt and EUV). If they had delivered on even 20% of their promise in the four years since they made it, they’d still at least have more EVs now than they did then. But they didn’t, and they have nothing."
Sad but true... Biden is losing it more quickly than we thought.But.... ?!? Biden told us that GM was leading the EV revolution????
So a 300k/year run rate in North America two years from now? That's ambitious. I don't see 100k+ Mach Es without much lower pricing.