EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Gerasimental]

January UK 'other imports' is 152, up 281% from Jan '14's 54.

Of course we don't know how many of those are Teslas, and the 'other' category includes Ferrari, Lamborghini, etc. which are very popular in London.
Still, looking at other high-end, non-mass market cars, they seem not to have improved much (Aston Martin -10%, Bentley -17%, Maserati +84% but only because of the low-cost Ghibli being introduced), so I like to think that a big chunk of that 281% increase from Jan 14 is thanks to Teslas.

 

[schonelucht]

Local media report that Tesla has appointed a country manager for Belgium and is hoping to expand. One of the jobs of the newly appointed is establishing two new sales locations, effectively doubling its regional presence.

 

[Benz]

Total Plug-In Vehicle registrations in Europe in 2014: 75.331

Link: http://www.welt.de/motor/news/artic...tml?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

 

[virtuesoft]

Local media report that Tesla has appointed a country manager for Belgium and is hoping to expand. One of the jobs of the newly appointed is establishing two new sales locations, effectively doubling its regional presence.

I went to Brugges a couple of weeks ago. I stayed for two days, and during my time I saw 3 Tesla's (1 Roadster and 2 Model S). There were also a number of charging points dotted around the city. They seem to be taking to EV's.

In London, where I live and work, I've seen roughly 10 Model S cars within the past 3 months.

 

[Gerasimental]

I went to Brugges a couple of weeks ago. I stayed for two days, and during my time I saw 3 Tesla's (1 Roadster and 2 Model S). There were also a number of charging points dotted around the city. They seem to be taking to EV's.

In London, where I live and work, I've seen roughly 10 Model S cars within the past 3 months.

10? I have many friends at Imperial College am usually in that area when in London and I'm used to seeing around one MS per day on average, although admittedly that's where you'd expect many of them to be.

 

[virtuesoft]

10? I have many friends at Imperial College am usually in that area when in London and I'm used to seeing around one MS per day on average, although admittedly that's where you'd expect many of them to be.

I work near Liverpool Street, so that's where I've seen most of them. A couple of months ago I saw about 5 in a week. I think they may have been doing test drives around the Square Mile at that time. I haven't been to Kensington for at least 6 months, maybe they're more common around there.

 

[mostapasta]

Here's what I found for Jan '15 (UK is my guess and I'm missing Italy):

 

[Benz]

Germany: 57

That seems to be correct.

Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015/02/germany-january-2015-mercedes-b-class-and-mini-up/#more-50101

 

[techmaven]

Here's what I found for Jan '15 (UK is my guess and I'm missing Italy):
View attachment 71877

Yeah, I take the 152 number from SMMT and subtract 65 from it for 87 for my modeling.

In any case, over 500 for a first month of the quarter and the first month of the year is actually quite good. About double year over year, and substantially higher than the highest first month of a quarter in 2014 - July at 412. Matter of fact, it is in striking distance of second months... about 600 or so.

Of course, for Tesla, the effect of the 'D' is being felt with the first P85D's coming soon. So January actually has a full "Osborne effect" for Europe.

 

[mostapasta]

Agreed. Year over year Europe came in almost double Jan '14. I think the weak demand overall (although it is mostly China focused atm) is being overplayed by the media/shorts. Should be exciting to watch this year.

 

[schonelucht]

Agreed. Year over year Europe came in almost double Jan '14. I think the weak demand overall (although it is mostly China focused atm) is being overplayed by the media/shorts. Should be exciting to watch this year.

January is an excellent first month of the quarter, but don't read to much in it. For example, the large drop of the euro in the last months of 2014 isn't reflected yet in these deliveries (with ordering mostly happening before the price adjustements.) Also, 2014Q1 European deliveries were clearly manipulated by Tesla for Magic March in Norway. All in all, Tesla schedules per quarter and that's what we should compare as well to judge demand accurately.

 

[chickensevil]

January is an excellent first month of the quarter, but don't read to much in it. For example, the large drop of the euro in the last months of 2014 isn't reflected yet in these deliveries (with ordering mostly happening before the price adjustements.) Also, 2014Q1 European deliveries were clearly manipulated by Tesla for Magic March in Norway. All in all, Tesla schedules per quarter and that's what we should compare as well to judge demand accurately.

The other point of note (I don't think I made in this thread but bears repeating), The delays at the end of Q4 pushed some cars into January that should have likely been intended for December. There is huge speculation right now that Feb is going to see a decent drop off in sales outside of the US (and even inside the US) since the cars being made in Jan/Feb are largely scheduled for end of Feb/March timeframe. So we could see a flat Feb and then finally get the rise in March. While there is still the whole port strike issues going on, I believe that is largely affecting Asia and not EU deliveries since if I am not mistaken they ship the cars by rail to the east and then put them on a boat for Europe (as opposed to putting them on a boat in the Pacific and being forced through Panama which is quite expensive)

 

[schonelucht]

Possible, but I haven't noticed a lot of complaints of deliveries missed in december on the Dutch forum though. Another possibility is that during the production interruption of the D they scrambled to make some regular models out of order and some of these ended up in Europe in January. There were a few reports of people getting their delivery date pushed earlier.

 

[uselesslogin]

So we could see a flat Feb and then finally get the rise in March.

A boat arrived in Norway already with P85Ds. I don't think Feb will be flat in Europe. Mar will be bigger but I don't think Feb will be flat.

 

[RobStark]

PI	Europe	Jan 2015	MS %
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1,980	21
2	Volkswagen Golf GTE	1,033	11
3	Volkswagen e-Golf	1,026	11
4	Nissan LEAF	988	10
5	Renault Zoe	709	7
6	Tesla Model S	549	6
7	BMW i3	502	5

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2015/02/europe-january-2015.html#comment-form

 

[Yggdrasill]

321 Model S were delivered in Norway in February. Nissan Leaf was at 247. Total number of electric cars was 1916, plus three hydrogen cars. Market share for electric cars was 18.0%. On top of this there was 211 plug-in hybrids, and they had 2.0% market share.

That's about the only figures I can wring from the little bit of statistics released yet.

 

[matbl]

For Sweden (February '15): 11. Quite a difference to neighbor Norway. Shows quite clearly the importance of incentives and infrastructure.

 

[RobStark]

For Sweden (February '15): 11. Quite a difference to neighbor Norway. Shows quite clearly the importance of incentives and infrastructure.

That is an increase of 366% over Feb '14 LOL.

Norway also demonstrates the effect of punishing punitive taxes on gas guzzlers.

That would not cost the Swedish Treasury anything.

 

[Cobos]

That is an increase of 366% over Feb '14 LOL.

Norway also demonstrates the effect of punishing punitive taxes on gas guzzlers.

That would not cost the Swedish Treasury anything.

Well you couldn't do that in Sweden. They have always had domestic car producers to protect though Norway has none (though we had Th!nk which might explain some of the EV incentives). Norway has always had strong taxes on cars since after the second world war. Public support for those high car taxes has always been fairly high, otherwise they would have been removed. That is why the countries in Europe with high car taxes maintain them but the countries without do not try to collect them.
And of course the taxes for more moderate cars are not that bad, a basic Mazda CX-5 (on the top 10 best-selling cars in Norway last year) costs $28.6k + $14.4k in 25% sales tax and cartaxes.

The interesting thing about Sweden is as you say the huge increase in Model S sales there. They do have more of a tradition for higher powered sports sedans than Norway has and all the customers in Norway raving about the car means the sales are picking up.

Cobos

 

[RobStark]

a basic Mazda CX-5 (on the top 10 best-selling cars in Norway last year) costs $28.6k + $14.4k in 25% sales tax and cartaxes.

I was thinking more about this

BMW 760Li $325k USD or kr 2.4M

P85D $100k USD or kr 768k


US Price for BMW 760Li is $141k.


As far as protecting domestic manufactures goes SAAB Cars is not producing anything and is circling the toilet bowl.

Volvo's biggest engine is a 4 cylinder 2.0 litre.

Sweden can commence a gas guzzler tax for any engine with more than 4 cylinders and a separate gas guzzler tax for any engine bigger than 2.0 litre.

That protects Volvo from BMW,Mercedes,Audi et al and gives electrics more room to run too.