Elon Musk:"Copy us, or join us". This is important for the global revolution of EV's.

[callmesam]

ah...1,000,000 in 5 years? Not a chance. Try 1,000,000 in maybe 15-20 years.

They are talking about 500,000 by the time they launch GenIII in 2017-2017 so, I don't think we are going to have to wait for 15-20 to reach the million car level.

 

[ksdprasad]

Speaking as someone who pays over $200/mo in gas (at 30mpg) I have *no* problem with paying a one-time $2000 fee, buried in the cost of my car, for lifetime SuperCharger access for free. Of course I'll be charging my hypothetical Gen III at home almost all the time but driving NH to Philly to visit my older daughter, or going to Cape Cod, the mountains, the beach - wherever - without worry? Yeah. I'll pay that.

i agree. +1

 

[aronth5]

They are talking about 500,000 by the time they launch GenIII in 2017-2017 so, I don't think we are going to have to wait for 15-20 to reach the million car level.

500,000 is too high by 2017. Most estimates are in the 250k range for the Model S, Model X and Gen3 annually for the first couple of years. The Fremont plant when operated by Toyota and GM averaged 6k cars per week (312k/yr) so while it may be possible to ramp up to 500,000 that won't happen right away. Tesla will also have to ramp up service centers and the supercharger network. That will take time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI

 

[Palpatine]

I love the quote from Elon. "Copy us or join us"

It forces everyone else to ask the question, how far behind Tesla are the other auto companies? 3 years? 5 years?
None of them have gone 100% for electric like Tesla Motors has. They are all still bound to the model of oil changes, gasoline, etc. They have a ton of capital invested in all of those engine designs and distribution networks. As a result, none of them would have ever considered spending $100 million on a Supercharger network in North America and Europe.

The other problem is that their franchise dealer networks are not thrilled with EVs. There is far less revenue for maintenance and service from an EV, so there is far less incentive for a dealer network to sell an EV. It will be interesting to see if a really well done EV from BMW, Audi or Mercedes fails due to dealer neglect or indifference. Of course, we have yet to see a really superior EV from anyone else, so we don't have the evidence yet.

Tesla seems to me to be about 5 years ahead of anyone else at the moment. Nobody else is even seriously in the early stages of designing the things that Tesla has on the market right now. The Model S and 120 kw Supercharger network are game changing technologies that will excite people. People HATE high gas prices. Tesla is the first viable alternative EVER presented.

You want a killer app? I think it will be the Tesla Gen III at $30,000 to $35,000 with a 200 mile range and access to the Supercharger network. There is a real market for that, especially with $4+ gasoline.

Fracking produces natural gas, not oil. Gas prices are still going higher.

 

[Darko]

The other problem is that their franchise dealer networks are not thrilled with EVs. There is far less revenue for maintenance and service from an EV, so there is far less incentive for a dealer network to sell an EV. It will be interesting to see if a really well done EV from BMW, Audi or Mercedes fails due to dealer neglect or indifference. Of course, we have yet to see a really superior EV from anyone else, so we don't have the evidence yet.

Tesla seems to me to be about 5 years ahead of anyone else at the moment. Nobody else is even seriously in the early stages of designing the things that Tesla has on the market right now. The Model S and 120 kw Supercharger network are game changing technologies that will excite people. People HATE high gas prices. Tesla is the first viable alternative EVER presented.

Yeah, it's not as if there aren't smart people working on EVs at many of the other car companies, but they don't have the freedom of a blank sheet like Tesla. Take the upcoming BMW i3 - a lot of hype and expectation - and they've certainly put a lot of thought and effort into it - but money and effort into things like a carbon fiber chassis, while good and certainly the future in reducing weight in the long term, are not the core drivers at the moment. In the end it's still a city errand car with limited range - it's cheaper than the Model S, but will always be a limited second car (and therefore effectively MORE expensive for individuals' and families' budgets). And the problem stems from the fact that the engineers weren't allowed to even ask the right questions. As it stands now, the other EV's won't even be able to use Tesla's superchargers even if Tesla is magnanimous about sharing, as they're too range-limited to make it between the planned spacing. Tesla clearly hit the nail on the head in imagining an ecosystem of long-range EVs and a practicable number of superchargers - shorter range and the cars would have to stop too often and they'd have to build too many charge points for one company to make it financially feasible.

You want a killer app? I think it will be the Tesla Gen III at $30,000 to $35,000 with a 200 mile range and access to the Supercharger network. There is a real market for that, especially with $4+ gasoline.

+1
The affordability of Gen III with free charging around the country by 2017 will be an absolute gamechanger.


Ammendment:

I just remembered that the BMW i3 is to have an ICE range extender option, so it won't be range-limited per-se, but the point still stands as Tesla has shown that PHEV's are simply ungainly compromises and have no future.

 

[Palpatine]

If we hit 2017 and have a gasoline spike into the $6+ level and Tesla Motors is the only player with EVs that can do 200+ miles of range, and the Supercharger network is fully operational, then a few auto manufacturers are going out of business.

 

[ggies07]

If we hit 2017 and have a gasoline spike into the $6+ level and Tesla Motors is the only player with EVs that can do 200+ miles of range, and the Supercharger network is fully operational, then a few auto manufacturers are going out of business.

Well we all know the Supercharger network will be everywhere in the US by 2015, so everyone else is going to get schooled. Cant wait to watch the domination!

 

[TD1]

Originally Posted by Palpatine
You want a killer app? I think it will be the Tesla Gen III at $30,000 to $35,000 with a 200 mile range and access to the Supercharger network. There is a real market for that, especially with $4+ gasoline.

Everytime I read that as a european I have to chuckle, 9$ it is in Germany

 

[Palpatine]

Everytime I read that as a european I have to chuckle, 9$ it is in Germany

Has there been any comment in the German press about the Model S with free Supercharger access?
I would think $9 gasoline makes that even more attractive in European countries.

Maybe the buzz will start after Tesla installs a few Superchargers between major cities in Europe. It is real when the TV news does a video demo in a location that you personally know.

 

[Benz]

Here in Europe we are watching closely what is happening in the US.
Slowly but surely more and more people are hearing and learning about Tesla Motors and the Tesla Model S.
Elon Musk (Tesla Motors) is showing to the world that there actually is another option that we can choose (electric instead of oil).
In the US there are about 12,000 Tesla Model S EV's already driving around on the roads. And many more will come on a regular weekly basis.
The adoption of EV's has started. They killed the EV1. They cannot kill the Tesla Model S, just because it's the best car ever built.
The power of the people is going to protect Tesla Motors. No government can stop it now.

 

[Darko]

Here in Europe we are watching closely what is happening in the US.
Slowly but surely more and more people are hearing and learning about Tesla Motors and the Tesla Model S.
Elon Musk (Tesla Motors) is showing to the world that there actually is another option that we can choose (electric instead of oil).
In the US there are about 12,000 Tesla Model S EV's already driving around on the roads. And many more will come on a regular weekly basis.
The adoption of EV's has started. They killed the EV1. They cannot kill the Tesla Model S, just because it's the best car ever built.
The power of the people is going to protect Tesla Motors. No government can stop it now.

My pocketbook will keep me waiting for Gen III, but I'm jealous of all you Roadster and Model S owners who, over the next 3 years as the supercharger networks expand will be taking roadtrips all across the North American and European continents - the conversion won't happen overnight per se, but it will be viral - the more cars on the road the more people will learn, be comfortable with the idea, and want a car that is exciting and isn't a compromise. The US has a great cultural tradition in books and film of the great american roadtrip that has waned in the last decades - I think we may begin to see a renaissance. Tesla isn't just a hair shirt for environmentalists - it makes driving fun again.