Electric car predictions for the future

[mattjn]

Model S, X, and Gen III 20K each would take over 16 years to reach 1 million. Let's say Tesla is super successful and sell 100K cars total when Gen III comes out, still don't see how they could make 1 million before 2020. Either way, the EV market, while growing, won't be a significant percentage of total car sells any time soon.

 

[Z1970]

PWC expects the percentage of EV's to be 6.3 if charging infrastructure improves.
Long-term Cost Savings and Infrastructure Essential to Electric Vehicle Growth

in 2020....

 

[jerry33]

Model S, X, and Gen III 20K each would take over 16 years to reach 1 million. Let's say Tesla is super successful and sell 100K cars total when Gen III comes out, still don't see how they could make 1 million before 2020. Either way, the EV market, while growing, won't be a significant percentage of total car sells any time soon.

I thought Tesla's goal was 200,000 Gen III per year.

 

[mattjn]

I thought Tesla's goal was 200,000 Gen III per year.

They would need to get Gen III below 30K to hit that goal, can't really count on people who buy a car at this level having enough tax burden to benefit from the total 7500 tax credit.

 

[Bipo]

total EV sales won't hit 1 million until 2025

Oh, c'mon! You know that new technologies grow exponentialy! See iPhone and other examples

 

[mattjn]

Oh, c'mon! You know that new technologies grow exponentialy! See iPhone and other examples

Unless some other manufacturer gets on the EV bandwagon, Tesla is going to be the only dog in the fight. It took the Prius 11 years to reach the 1 million sold mark, so I'd imagine that a higher priced pure EV is going to take longer, especially if another administration gets rid of the tax credit. (Prius debut in Japan in 1997, worldwide in 2000, 1 million sold in May of 2008.)