Did I just take someone's Reservation #?

[Nubo]

If the model S is a comparison, expect delays in production. However, a high percentage of people with a reservation will also delay or cancel. My model S reservation was in the 4000s and my model S vin number is in the 2000s. To get an early model S, we had to order an 85 with air suspension. There may be similar requirements for the model X.

I didn't realize the attrition rate had been that high for Model S. I might expect it to be higher for Model X since they seem to have been accepting or even encouraging, Model X reservation holders to convert to Model S.

 

[ohmman]

I might expect it to be higher for Model X since they seem to have been accepting or even encouraging, Model X reservation holders to convert to Model S.

It's interesting. I wonder how many reservation holders are waiting on the X for practical reasons that only the X can deliver - interior space, upright vehicle (important to my wife, for instance), forward facing third row, etc, and how many are waiting because they don't want a second MS in the garage. I would guess that if the MS had undergone a change in body styling, anyone waiting on the X for that latter reason might be willing to abandon the reservation.

 

[timf]

I didn't realize the attrition rate had been that high for Model S. I might expect it to be higher for Model X since they seem to have been accepting or even encouraging, Model X reservation holders to convert to Model S.

The only data point I am able to provide is my dad's reservation, which was made in November 2012 in the 14,000s and delivered as VIN 6267 in early March 2013. There were numerous options that had production delays, such as standard suspension, 60kWh battery, and multi-coat red paint. If you were willing to order an 85 or P85 with air suspension, you could jump the line pretty quickly.

For Model X I'm expecting similar attrition, whereby I end up with a VIN roughly half of my reservation number. In fact, I figure my actual spot in line is currently around 7,500 given the reservation numbers Tesla has announced versus the tally kept here.

 

[trils0n]

The only data point I am able to provide is my dad's reservation, which was made in November 2012 in the 14,000s and delivered as VIN 6267 in early March 2013. There were numerous options that had production delays, such as standard suspension, 60kWh battery, and multi-coat red paint. If you were willing to order an 85 or P85 with air suspension, you could jump the line pretty quickly.

For Model X I'm expecting similar attrition, whereby I end up with a VIN roughly half of my reservation number. In fact, I figure my actual spot in line is currently around 7,500 given the reservation numbers Tesla has announced versus the tally kept here.

Early production reservation number vs VIN inconsistencies were a result of cars not being produced in reservation number order, and weren't necessarily indicative of a high attrition rate. Cars were produced/batched with priority to highest priced vehicles. As you noted, standard suspension, 60kWh battery and multi coat red were some of the things that delayed deliveries.

 

[bonnie]

Unfortunately, I know everyone in line ahead of me and NO ONE is canceling. (Yes, if you're reading here, you know I'm talking to you. )

 

[BerTX]

Unfortunately, I know everyone in line ahead of me and NO ONE is canceling. (Yes, if you're reading here, you know I'm talking to you. )

Technically, I guess it does only take two points to make a "line".

 

[brucet999]

As Sig#1015, we are sure hoping for delivery by Thanksgiving. I'm starting to get used to seeing my "X-ero CO2" license plate on my truck, and the plate really gives people the wrong idea on a Ford F-350.

Still, I'm still highly confident that the car is going to be worth the wait. By this time next year, everyone is going to be talking about the X.
View attachment 72146

So, how many bales will you be able to fit in the back of your X? Plenty of room in the frunk for hay hooks and apron.