adiggs
Well-Known Member
I'm in the >$900 camp. I find anything under $900 to be really conservative.
My thinking is that with $3 in earnings in Q3, if that's carried forward for the next 4 quarters (neither higher nor lower), then we arrive at the end of 2019 as a company with $12 in trailing earnings that also spent the front half of the year showing growth over 100% year over year, with the annual growth being well north of 20% (2019 compared to 2018). I expect the delivered growth in the back half of next year to be more modest - something consistent with the learning that comes from manufacturing in volume, rather than a new product that is being produce in volume at that point.
I figure fast growing companies with $12 in earnings are worth more than as a 100 PE, or $1200.
To arrive at a $360 share price or lower, I need to believe that a fast growing company with $12 in earnings is worth a 30 PE or less. I can buy something non-volatile and boring with a 30 PE.
My thinking is that with $3 in earnings in Q3, if that's carried forward for the next 4 quarters (neither higher nor lower), then we arrive at the end of 2019 as a company with $12 in trailing earnings that also spent the front half of the year showing growth over 100% year over year, with the annual growth being well north of 20% (2019 compared to 2018). I expect the delivered growth in the back half of next year to be more modest - something consistent with the learning that comes from manufacturing in volume, rather than a new product that is being produce in volume at that point.
I figure fast growing companies with $12 in earnings are worth more than as a 100 PE, or $1200.
To arrive at a $360 share price or lower, I need to believe that a fast growing company with $12 in earnings is worth a 30 PE or less. I can buy something non-volatile and boring with a 30 PE.