Could Model 3 be too late?

[dauger]

I'm sure LG can scale very quickly (so can Nissan for that matter).

What evidence do we have to believe that? I'd say none because if they could they would have already begun. The logistics of the Gigafactory tell us that scale takes years and billions to plan and build, so it cannot be kept secret. The tardiness of LG and the like to begin only furthers Tesla's lead.

This also convinces me the German's first long-range BEVs will be pricy, even more than the Roadster was, so Model 3 has nothing to worry about if its first delivery is on time.

 

[purplewalt]

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but has Elon Musk stated officially that the Model 3 will be able to use the superchargers? Or are we just assuming this?

I dread that a little bit, as the Model 3 is supposed to be for the "masses", and if we have "masses" charging on the superchargers its going to affect travelling long-distances in the Model S.

Yes, as Jerry33 stated, Elon has said the Model 3 will be able to use the Supercharger Network.
What is not known is IF will be a slight extra cost for the car to be configured so that it can use the Supercharger Network.

A fee was incurred for the previous S60 Model so it could use the Superchargers, either pre-delivery, or post delivery.
Since the 70D has been introduced, there is no fee for any of the current NEW Model S that are for sale to use the Supercharger Network.
The Network is a long way off from even being close to being completed, so I would not worry about several hundred thousand New Model 3s appearing with only the current Superchargers that are in-place.


The Model X will have access to the Supercharger Network.

 

[Electricfan]

..., so I would not worry about several hundred thousand New Model 3s appearing with only the current Superchargers that are in-place.

file these under "famous last words..."

 

[purplewalt]

file these under "famous last words..."

Just to be clear: there are currently over 425 Superchargers in operation.

Looking at the current recent past roll-out, upcoming construction and projections based on Maps, there will probably be between 900 to 1,100 Superchargers by end of 2016 (my guess-timation).
When the first Model 3s come out, it will be sometime in 2Q to 3Q of 2017.
And a couple hundred more Suprchargers will be in Operation.

It will be relatively quick delivery to get to the first 20,000 Model 3s in 2017, much less the first 100,000 Units (giga Factory production and capacity will be a major factor).
It will be a while before TM can ramp up production and delivery of the Model 3 into the six-figure range, probably 2019.

And in the meantime, TM will be continuing to expand and fill in the Network during 2017.
TM has gone back and expanded several of the current Supercharger stations (Barstow, Hawthorne and Harris Ranch come to mind).
IF the need is there, they will probably either expand, or add an adjacent Supercharger location (such as Las Vegas or Primm).

 

[scaesare]

Just to be clear: there are currently over 425 Superchargers in operation.

And in actuality, those are Supercharger sites. Each site has an average of 6 Supercharger stalls (at least in the US). So there are already on the order of 2,000+ Supercharger stalls worldwide...

 

[Fiver]

It will be relatively quick delivery to get to the first 20,000 Model 3s in 2017, much less the first 100,000 Units (giga Factory production and capacity will be a major factor).
It will be a while before TM can ramp up production and delivery of the Model 3 into the six-figure range, probably 2019.

Remember we are talking about Tesla here. I would be very surprised if anything more then "limited" numbers of 3's shipped at all in 2017. Realistically the roll out will be 2018 (and late into 2018 at that probably). It's a new line, on a new foundation. They will roll this out slow and methodical, checking and fixing issues with this new car as they arise to prevent massive recalls that cost both money and credibility.

While the Roadster, S, and X has shown Tesla can build these cars, the S (& eventually X) are still being produced in limited numbers. On the flip side, the 3 has always been the car that hopefully will not be produced in limited numbers, it will be produced in massive numbers. Tesla wants the 3 (and it's expected variants) to be the car that brings BEV to the masses. They need this rollout to be as smooth as possible to lock in their legacy as the US company that brought reliable BEV to the world. BEV is still very new to most consumers, and it would not take much of a mis-step for Tesla to set back the whole BEV movement across all manufacturers. While every car company has some form of hybrid or BEV out or coming, most of the press is centered on Tesla. They can't afford to blow this, because it's larger then them really if they do.

If anything Tesla is trying to be Pixar*. Meticulous attention to detail leading to hit after hit. That doesn't come from rushing things out.

*Although there is slight irony that Pixar's worst reviewed movie (Cars) was also it's biggest financial success.... Those toys sold like crazy.

 

[Zythryn]

Imagine that sooner or later BMW would announce i5 or 3 series electric.....
Benz C class electric drive ....
Audi , Porsche 's full electric model also around corner ....

Would you still take Model 3 instead of the German electric cars?

It would partly depend upon specifics.
How much earlier would the hypothetical German brands have the cars available?

If Tesla is still operating their direct sales & service, that would be a huge point in their favor. And since I am already driving electric, I am in no huge rush, so being first to market wouldn't be that big of an advantage.

The supercharger network is also an advantage.
Could the other guys catch up? Sure they could. Will they? I doubt it.
American made holds an advantage for me as well.

And of course, I like doing business with the company that took the risks, rather than following the trailblazers.

 

[Merrill]

Not going to be to late, no one wants to venture into this segment of automobile manufacturing and for me once Tesla makes a mass market car that is affordable and goes 300 plus miles on a charge and is nice looking and can charge at the superchargers all over the world, this will be a game changer for the automotive world. I won't buy one of these but really want Tesla to be able to do this because it will be good for everyone and will then remove all the doubters that constantly try to undermine the EV segment of automobiles.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Well, thanks everyone for the facts.....
but, let's jump into imagination for a moment, what if the German car makers all announce their full electric mainstream models right be4 Model 3....

Would you still choose Model 3 instead of the German's electric cars ?

The Germans make great cars, but your hypothetical question hasn't provided any substantive assumptions upon which to provide a meaningful response.

The issue is not whether the Germans, or anyone else for that matter, can design and even build a few expensive, compelling EVs. Where the rubber meets the road is what will it cost, how many are they really going to build, and what charging infrastructure will exist to support long range travel in mass market numbers? For example, the BMW i8 is a compelling hybrid. It looks great and performs very well, but its starting price is at more than the most expensive Model S. Is it selling better than the Model S? Is BMW producing it in numbers greater than the Model S? I wonder why?

At least four major automobile manufacturers have already "announced" that they plan to build a long range mass market EV. So what? As others have already pointed out, what substantive actions have they actually taken to demonstrate that they will be in a position to supply the huge amount of batteries that a long range, mass market EV will require? Which are rapidly expanding a high performance, fast charging network to support that "announced" EV? Only, Tesla.

In the large sedan category in the US Tesla is selling more Model Ss than its German competitors. Why wouldn't this same trend continue in the mass market in as much as Tesla clearly has demonstrated a lead in producing relatively low cost, high performance batteries now even before the Gigafactory begins to achieve significant economies of scale. If the Germans are smart they'll buy their batteries from Tesla, adopt the Tesla charging specification, and pay the admission fee to gain access to the Supercharger network. If I were Daimler I would negotiate with Tesla to furnish the powertrains for their long distance, mass market EV, just as they are doing with the B-Class.

Larry

 

[Grendal]

Let's be clear. The Germans aren't interested in building a long range EV because then it will compete with their money making ICE business. Every major manufacturer is only building EV's that don't compete against their ICE car business.

That said, the question is what if they did decide to go all in and make an EV that does compete with their cars and Tesla. First off, scale and pricing. They might be able to beat Tesla on the price of actual car parts since they have history and quantity to do so. Batteries and drivetrain are easily on the side of Tesla. Another major advantage Tesla has is in the battery management system to make sure their heavily used batteries hold up to the abuse that owners put on them. This system allows Supercharging and a variety of charge and discharge features that would be hard presses to copy. Sure the Germans could build an BEV that can do 0-60 in 3 seconds but try and drive it across the country? I don't think so. Reverse that with making one that is good for driving long distances with fast recharges and I'll bet they wouldn't have the screaming 0-60 times to add to the fun. Tesla sits next to Silicon Valley and there is just no way that you could get the updates flying in hard and fast to improve the car like Tesla can do. Would they be willing to spend the money to get a group of programmers to work with them? Probably not. As others have pointed out, the Supercharging network ties everything together into a nice package that makes the car a compelling alternative to owning a gas car. We are all realistically aware that EV are less convenient for driving long distances than any gas car. However, that inconvenience is offset by having your long distance driving be free. Are the Germans willing to not charge for a recharge in a big way? Of course not. They are in the business of making money. Tesla is out to prove the point that an EV is sustainable transport. So, is it possible for the Germans to make a car as good as a Tesla? It's possible. Would they make one? Not a chance.

Tesla and Elon are in this for the long haul. They are going to drag the world's transportation system into the future kicking and screaming. Mostly by just outdoing their competitors and showing what can be done. I have no doubt that the Model X will be as compelling to other SUVs and CUVs as the Model S is now to other luxury sedans. The Model 3 will be equally compelling and just like the Model S will be the obvious choice for someone who can afford one.

 

[GregHudson]

Imagine that sooner or later BMW would announce i5 or 3 series electric.....
Benz C class electric drive ....
Audi , Porsche 's full electric model also around corner ....

Would you still take Model 3 instead of the German electric cars?

Interesting question, as we are currently a 2 Mercedes family, and have had 5 BMW's in the past (i.e. no brand loyalty).
If a FULL electric C class (i.e. not hybrid) was released before the Model 3, then yes, I'd probably take the C. After all, it is the current Worlds Best Car award winner (2015).
On the other hand, the SuperCharger network is a force to be reckoned with, and may swing my vote Tesla's way (if the Mercedes was not part of the SC Network).
I've checked out the i3 and it is too small, and range too short. The i8 is too expensive ($300k+ here in Australia) and I do not want an EV with range extender.

My 5 cents worth. (5c is the smallest coin denomination in Oz)

GH

- - - Updated - - -

Also, do you mean the B class electric drive? It has a Tesla drivetrain. So, it barely fits in the category "competitor".

Why oh why did Mercedes cut their ties with Tesla (sigh)... The Tesla/MB B Class would be perfect for me (if it was right hand drive).
GH

 

[GregHudson]

Does it need to be accelerated?

Based on their projections, and current roll-out pace, it seems that by the time the Model 3 hit it's production capacity there should be plenty of supercharger locations. I don't think we'll see more than 100,000+ Model 3s on the road until at least 2019. While there will be more Model S & Xs on the road by then...the supercharger usage will probably be pretty limited by those owners...comparatively.

There are already SuperCharger congestion issues, just watch a few of Bjorn Nyland's videos, and you will find people queued up to charge at more that one site (Amsterdam being the worst, with Tesla Taxis on almost every SC).

GH

 

[mikes_fsd]

And has Elon said the supercharger network will be massively accelerated?

Hope so. I can't imagine getting to a supercharger and waiting 2 hours for a stall to open up before I could even start charging. As wonderful as that would be for the Tesla brand - means that there are Teslas cruising up and down the highway commonly - it would sure stink for the owners...

Elon (and other Tesla folks) have said that the goal is to get charging down to the 10 min range for 50% of charge. And, if you read their SEC filing from this week, you get a picture of what supercharging network development will look like from a mere location count.

Tesla Motors - Quarterly Report

As of March 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014, the net book value of our Supercharger network was $128.5 million and $107.8 million and currently includes 425 locations globally. We plan to continue investing in our Supercharger network for the foreseeable future, including in North America, Europe and Asia and expect such spending to be approximately 5% of total capital spending over the next 12 months. During 2015, this investment will grow our Supercharger network by about 50%. We allocate Supercharger related expenses to cost of automotive revenues and selling, general, and administrative expenses. These costs were immaterial for all periods presented.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

There are already SuperCharger congestion issues, just watch a few of Bjorn Nyland's videos, and you will find people queued up to charge at more that one site (Amsterdam being the worst, with Tesla Taxis on almost every SC).

GH

The one in Amsterdam was not the norm. However, perhaps I should have specified the US when I was discussing a lack of congestion.

 

[Bulletproof]

Agreed. Others might have specific alternatives, but considering how much integration Tesla has and how many years ahead of the so-called competition it is, a Tesla, by far!

 

[1208]

What would people here prefer, more charging points at current SuperChargers or more SuperCharger locations?

If I had a tesla I would say more locations.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Not necessarily in the market for a Model 3 (yet anyway), but in general I would prefer the Tesla. The only reason I might consider something other than a Tesla is if they offer a form-factor Tesla doesn't do, say someone came up with a 200+ mile four seater cabriolet EV. If Tesla had a similar car on offer, I would consider it first.

I have a long history with premium Germans, but in the brave new world of the "iPhone of cars", I'm not going to back to the proverbial Motorola flip-phone. I can see whose The New Vorsprung.

 

[Yggdrasill]

What would people here prefer, more charging points at current SuperChargers or more SuperCharger locations?

If I had a tesla I would say more locations.

Tesla should increase the number of locations until they run out of good locations, then start increasing the number of superchargers at each location.

 

[DuncanWatson]

As long as the Model 3 is delivered in 2018 or sooner I see no threat for Tesla. In fact I view the Model 3 release and success as a prerequisite for any other major car manufacturer delivering a 200+ mile real world range EV. I doubt Chevy, Ford or Nissan will beat Tesla to the punch and don't think any of the Germans are even in the running.

 

[igotzzoom]

The Bolt might beat the 3 to market, but to me, it's the difference between essentially an extended-range Leaf vs. an electrified BMW 3 series. To me, there's no comparison, except possibly the price point.