Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

I wonder what all the pro vaxxers have to say about this recently posted research by the CDC. What was once considered a conspiracy is now being acknowledged by CDC. Go figure.

Note this study does not cover boosters, nor does it cover Omicron. I believe it did not look at severe disease and outcomes.

It has never been a conspiracy. Infection-acquired immunity has always been acknowledged as providing some protection. Just look at this thread starting in 2020; it tells the story. The issues are:

1) Not as strong as a boosted response, in particular against variants.
2) Has substantial downside risk both personally, and to the society in which we live (increased transmission of infection vs. breakthrough). This is obviously the biggest issue.
3) The response is clearly less consistent than the response to a vaccine, boosted or unboosted (distribution of responses), and depends on the individual’s disease severity. This is supported by a great deal of data at this point. This is potentially relevant for rates of protection against severe disease upon breakthrough or reinfection; there could be a divergence from the infection rates looked at in the study.

I think two infections will provide very substantial durable immunity against severe infection in most individuals, unless we see a variant with very significant immune escape (which we have not seen yet). But such a variant would also cause problems for the strength of protection against severe disease of current vaccines.

A couple advantages of infection-acquired immunity:
1) Mucosal immunity might provide some benefits in some people. You can get this by infection after vaccination though.
2) (Hypothetical) The nucleocapsid proteins maybe could provide some targets which provide cross-protection against very mutated versions of the virus in future. But very hypothetical, and you might be able to get this to some extent by infection after vaccination, which is safer.
3) People who get infected then get vaccinated have some of the very strongest levels of protection in studies (probably due to nucleocapsid targets).

 

[wdolson]

I wonder what all the pro vaxxers have to say about this recently posted research by the CDC. What was once considered a conspiracy is now being acknowledged by CDC. Go figure.

@bkp_duke has been very clear from the beginning that natural infection may be a better protection than the vaccine because it gives you a broader spectrum of immunity. The vaccines are just targeting the spike protein whereas with natural infection the immune system learns to spot many other attributes of the virus.

However, there are downsides to natural immunity. You have a 1 in 200 chance of dying from getting infected. Though the odds of death are higher for older people and the immune compromised and lower for those in better underlying health. There is also a much higher risk of needing hospitalization with natural infection, again age and underlying health adjusted.

However, there is a much higher risk of long COVID from natural infection and that is skewed the other way. People who are younger and in better health are more likely to develop long COVID from natural infection.

The vaccines do not offer quite as good protection, but there is much less risk of problems too.

Sure. But fluvoxamine is extremely well known as an effective treatment. It went through RCTs and showed efficacy. As I have said already many times, early treatment with drugs proven to provide benefit in RCTs is extremely important. This is very well known. It’s particularly important to use as a prophylactic in the vulnerable, who may not have a good response to the vaccine and need all the help they can get (but it is important for everyone showing significant symptoms, really).

However, I think it’s a little unrealistic to think most people show mild symptoms and then get worse slowly over the course of many days. For many people, the symptoms come on quite quickly and rapidly escalate. People showing strong symptoms need to get the treatments proven by RCTs ASAP and not waste their time with ineffective therapies (they can always supplement with these if allowed, but using as a substitute will very likely be harmful).

CDC says 6 feet under 15 minutes is ok (note this individual was unvaccinated):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484176139681738753

The case talked about on Twitter from the Hong Kong hotel, is that pre or post Omincron.

My partner came across something last night that apparently about 20% of people get less protection from Omicron with the vaccines than the rest of the population:
Why some vaccinated people resist Omicron and others don’t

She knows two people who are triple vaxxed, but have Omicron cases that won't go away. They aren't severely ill, they just can't seem to completely kick the bug.

 

[FloridaSun]

That is simply a lie. 18th WORST death per million in the nation, out of 50 states in case you didn't know. I'll let you struggle with the math.


Yes, he provided it:

That means there were more deaths than usual but for some reason they weren't reported as covid related. So either something else is killing people at a higher rate than normal or covid related deaths aren't being accurately reported. Pretty obvious what is happening.

Florida is one of the largest states with huge Metro areas like West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, greater Orlando, Tampa/St. Pete, Jacksonville. States with large areas with high population density have of course higher chance of spread.
Speculation is not proof. There is no proof that covid deaths were not reported as Covid. Any actual proof that any of the unexpected deaths not reported as covid were covid related or is this pure speculation?

 

[JRP3]

The important takeaway from my post is that Florida is in no way an outlier for high death rate when adjusting for age which is the only way to look at a disease where death rates vary so much by age. If you need irrelevant data to be “right” then you’re not actually right. That is my point. I don’t really care about your pissing match with FloridaSun I just took a jab because I thought u were being a jerk to him.

Yet you're fine with his constant spreading misinformation. I'm not the one claiming Florida was an outlier for high death rate, I was simply countering his claim that Florida did things better by not taking more measures to counter covid, the numbers do not support his claims. You had to "adjust" his claims to be "right", in your mind at least. 18th worst overall death rate or 30th worst adjusted does not support the claim that Florida policy was especially good. As I and other's have pointed out repeatedly there are a number of reasons Florida had lower death rates, but the high case per capita, 6th worst in the nation, is proof that Florida did not do a good job of lowering cases through its policies.

 

[JRP3]

Any actual proof that any of the unexpected deaths not reported as covid were covid related or is this pure speculation?

Any actual proof, or even rational speculation, what caused the rise in unexpected deaths, other than under reported covid deaths?

 

[shinytop]

Not sure where you got your per capita figure. As of today on Washington Post site Florida is at 31st in the nation in cases per capita.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic_gfx/&state=US

 

[JRP3]

I get it from Worldometers United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
I don't think you read the data correctly from your link. Sorted for total cases per capita it also shows Florida number 6

 

[shinytop]

Strange difference between the two. It would have to do with the source. The WP is a 7 day rolling average, that would be the difference. I am not much of a math guy but I am bigger on watching current trends than totals.

 

[FloridaSun]

Any actual proof, or even rational speculation, what caused the rise in unexpected deaths, other than under reported covid deaths?

Hard to speculate without seeing the cause of death listed on death certificates. Hospitals actually benefit from reporting deaths as COVID as they get federal funds, so it's in their best interest reporting covid deaths as covid. I don't like to speculate. I like facts. Statistical anomalies happen all the time. That doesn't proof a thing.

 

[JRP3]

Strange difference between the two. It would have to do with the source. The WP is a 7 day rolling average, that would be the difference. I am not much of a math guy but I am bigger on watching current trends than totals.

The data is actually the same. See my edit to my earlier post.

 

[JRP3]

Hard to speculate without seeing the cause of death listed on death certificates. Hospitals actually benefit from reporting deaths as COVID as they get federal funds, so it's in their best interest reporting covid deaths as covid. I don't like to speculate. I like facts. Statistical anomalies happen all the time. That doesn't proof a thing.

Except your claim is that the higher number of unexplained deaths are not covid. If as you say hospitals "benefit" from covid deaths then that would incentivize them to claim HIGHER numbers of covid deaths, but that's the opposite of explaining the high number of NON covid reported deaths than expected. Your logic doesn't follow.

 

[FloridaSun]

Except your claim is that the higher number of unexplained deaths are not covid. If as you say hospitals "benefit" from covid deaths then that would incentivize them to claim HIGHER numbers of covid deaths, but that's the opposite of explaining the high number of NON covid reported deaths than expected. Your logic doesn't follow.

There is a cause of death listed on each death certificate. If someone believes that the cause of death is listed incorrectly, the burden of proof is at those who are claiming that there was fraud on the death certificates. It's the accuser that has to prove the case, not the accused proving their innocence.
BTW, Sweden's economy is above pre COVID levels.. accoring to Reuters.. Show me other countries whose economy has grown above pre pandemic levels..

UPDATE 2-Swedish economy surpasses pre-pandemic size, economists say

* Sweden imposed few restrictions during pandemic (Recasts on size of economy, add fresh economist comment)

mobile.reuters.com

 

[shinytop]

What I see is your source and mine agree on the number of cases per capita during the 7 day period, 174. That rate is currently 41st in the country. Just based on the abbreviated chart you show Florida is lowest among those listed.

 

[golfcart]

Yet you're fine with his constant spreading misinformation. I'm not the one claiming Florida was an outlier for high death rate, I was simply countering his claim that Florida did things better by not taking more measures to counter covid, the numbers do not support his claims. You had to "adjust" his claims to be "right", in your mind at least. 18th worst overall death rate or 30th worst adjusted does not support the claim that Florida policy was especially good. As I and other's have pointed out repeatedly there are a number of reasons Florida had lower death rates, but the high case per capita, 6th worst in the nation, is proof that Florida did not do a good job of lowering cases through its policies.

I don’t need to gang up in FloridaSun there are plenty of people on here doing that already. I get where he’s coming from on some of this stuff though even if he’s been off on some of the numbers.

At the end of the day we could all live in pods with feeding tubes and filtered air where nobody would ever die of any disease… but we value things like personal relationships, hobbies, professions, experiences, autonomy and freedom. It’s all about trade offs in determining what the best course of action is to balance all the things that matter and people are gonna come to different conclusions on how to best do that because individuals value all those things differently.

I think the argument for Florida is that they prioritized vaccinating the vulnerable, secured treatments, kept schools open, didn’t fire people for being unvaxxed, let businesses stay open, and generally let people live their lives as they see fit… and they are pretty average in terms of age adjusted death rate. The argument has never been that Florida has the lowest rates around. Lots of people seem to be impressed because the state is booming during the pandemic.

Census population data

 

[scottf200]

14 children at that one Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484897500091854850

Reminder for myself on what all that covers: "Gastroenterology is the study of the normal function and diseases of the esophagus, stomach, small intestine, colon and rectum, pancreas, gallbladder, bile ducts and liver."

 

[bkp_duke]

Hard to speculate without seeing the cause of death listed on death certificates. Hospitals actually benefit from reporting deaths as COVID as they get federal funds, so it's in their best interest reporting covid deaths as covid. I don't like to speculate. I like facts. Statistical anomalies happen all the time. That doesn't proof a thing.

This is simply not true. At least not like you are implying it is.

And having filled out death certificates before, they are not "clear cut" like you are implying they are. There is the "primary cause of death" and then we put down in another field contributing factors.

Additionally, I would like your source for "hospitals actually benefit from reporting deaths as COVID". I am not aware of any federal funding that benefits IN RETROSPECT like this.

 

[dhanson865]

Taking a look at my history and an update

* Flu Vaccine in 2020
* Moderna in Mar 2021
* Moderna in Apri 2021
* Moderna in Dec 2021
* Flu Vaccine in Dec 2021 (same day as covid booster)

Note I have allergies and thus congestion, runny nose, sneezing are off the table as viable diagnostic symptoms for me. I have those on any give day of the year. I get dental x rays on a day I feel like I'm breathing freely compared to my average and the hygienist say "looks like you are a little congested today".

So earlier this week I got symptoms that aren't in my allergy profile. Sore throat (mild), headache (mild). My voice sounded rough but my symptoms were mild. I called out of work for Wednesday and Thursday. Got tested on Friday.

* Flu A NEG
* Flu B NEG
* SARS Cov 2 NEG

Had to get a negative test to be allowed to go back to work. I was fine with taking paid time off anyway, but thought it odd how the "covid policy" didn't have any wording for the possibility someone could be sick without having covid. I understand taking precautions but it'd be nice if mangers would use some conditional statements instead of just handing me an absolute policy that doesn't apply to a random minor illness.

Our company policy has two logical segments

* what to do if you are exposed to someone with covid
* what to do if you test positive for covid

There is no segment/path/decision tree that takes you to "what to do if you don't have covid but get sick".

End result I've taken 500 mg of tylenol once and my normal antihistamines daily and got over it with nothing prescribed.

Smell and appetite normal. No other symptoms that point to covid. No known exposures to anyone with covid.

Something random I caught through the air or from a door handle I guess. Nothing identified.

 

[wdolson]

There is a cause of death listed on each death certificate. If someone believes that the cause of death is listed incorrectly, the burden of proof is at those who are claiming that there was fraud on the death certificates. It's the accuser that has to prove the case, not the accused proving their innocence.
BTW, Sweden's economy is above pre COVID levels.. accoring to Reuters.. Show me other countries whose economy has grown above pre pandemic levels..

UPDATE 2-Swedish economy surpasses pre-pandemic size, economists say

* Sweden imposed few restrictions during pandemic (Recasts on size of economy, add fresh economist comment)

mobile.reuters.com

It's very common to list multiple reasons for death on a death certificate. My father had a laundry list of organ failures (he was 100). The doctor couldn't tell which failed first.

I think it was posted here something like 12 to 18 months ago that some states were not counting a death as COVID unless the death certificate listed COVID as the first cause. Someone may have had cancer, got COVID and it pushed them over the edge. Others were facing one or more organ failure and COVID pushed them over the edge. Some people have died anyway even if they didn't get COVID, but others may have lived for at least a few years, or a cancer patient may have recovered fully and went on to live a full life, but COVID cut their life short.

Right now we are having deaths that are indirectly attributable to COVID. With some many people in the hospital with COVID, people who have strokes, heart attacks, traffic accidents, etc. are not getting the care they need and some are dying as a result. Many of those people are people who would have survived, but are dead because of the pandemic.

 

[JRP3]

What I see is your source and mine agree on the number of cases per capita during the 7 day period, 174. That rate is currently 41st in the country. Just based on the abbreviated chart you show Florida is lowest among those listed.

I've always quoted the total number of cases per capita and Florida is 6th worst in the nation, from both sources.

 

[JRP3]

BTW, Sweden's economy is above pre COVID levels.. accoring to Reuters.. Show me other countries whose economy has grown above pre pandemic levels..

Norway for one, and with 5 times lower death rates than Sweden. Imagine that, keeping people alive and still having a good economy.

Sustained growth in the Norwegian economy

GDP for mainland Norway increased by 2.6 percent from the second to the third quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted figures show. The recovery of the Norwegian economy continued, employment rose, and increased prices on Norwegian exports gave a huge rise in the trade surplus.

www.ssb.no