Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

I don't know that looking at mortality rates at assisted living communities is very useful. This flu really doesn't hit young people so all things being equal to the seasonal flu it would hit old people are worse right?

It depends upon the strain of the flu. The 1918 pandemic Spanish flu hit the young and healthy hard, really hard. The 2009 H1N1 hit the young harder than most seasonal influenza viruses.

COVID-19, we are lucky, appears to not hit the young very hard.

 

[EVNow]

Plus, the elderly in assisted living are generally given flu vaccines annually. There are a number of confounding factors that make it unwise to generalize the mortality rate from this particular sample.

Oh - I'm not trying to derive any numbers.

Just pointing out that this is decidedly deadlier than flu for this population.

 

[EinSV]

California is trying to step up its efforts on coronavirus

Obviously won't do anything for the uninsured and won't help if test kits are unavailable

Gavin Newsom on Twitter

 

[sundaymorning]

Great, so you have minimal qualifications and are just spouting something off you don't have much understanding of.

I have an M.D., and a Ph.D. in molecular biology. I live in San Diego County, and I know very well the companies you speak of. I also worked in college in one of the fore-most protein structure labs in the world. Since then, I have worked during my Ph.D. with viruses (we used them as expression vectors - I am NOT a virologist).

What I can say, for fact, is that getting the DNA and RNA sequences is the EASIEST part of all of the process of making a vaccine. Science has gotten REALLY REALLY good at sequencing DNA and RNA. It's fast, it's efficient. What we are NOT good at, and I speak from my days doing protein structure in college, is determining the 3D configuration of a protein from the DNA and RNA sequences. It's not just the LINEAR protein structure that is important, which is determined by the DNA sequence, but it is how that structure folds upon itself to form the 3D configuration of a protein which is critical (and THAT is only in part determined by the protein sequence - the environment in which the protein is expressed also determines how the protein folds). The 3D structure of a protein determines the exposed portions of the protein that the immune system can then form an immune response to (we call those exposed surfaces "epitopes"). Without epitopes that don't change much, a vaccine is dead in the water. This is why we have to create a new influenza vaccine every year - those exposed protein epitopes mutate to avoid the immune system.

Inovio has done the EASY part. At tops, 10% of the work, to create a vaccine. The hard part are Phases 1, 2, and 3 to go for.

let me ask you this, base on expertise do you think this virus is curable?

do you think scientist working for INO or any other company will be able to find a cure/vaccine for this, or will we all just infect one another and society will collapse?

 

[EVNow]

let me ask you this, base on expertise do you think this virus is curable?

do you think scientist working for INO or any other company will be able to find a cure/vaccine for this, or will be all just infect one another and society will collapse?

Dude, stop pumping that company. There are dozens working on a vaccine. Do you have stock in that company - at a minimum you should disclose that.

BTW, I've reported you to mods.

 

[HopJokey]

I’ll take and bet my money on humanity to overcome these types of viruses any day of the week.

I agree this isn't an existential threat to humanity, eventually we will overcome it. However it is spreading rapidly and countries in Europe and the US have to start shutting things down like in China and Singapore otherwise it is going to spread like crazy. This will have long lasting impact on the economy already in debt to its eyeballs.

 

[bkp_duke]

let me ask you this, base on expertise do you think this virus is curable?

do you think scientist working for INO or any other company will be able to find a cure/vaccine for this, or will we all just infect one another and society will collapse?

I think this is treatable, in the short term, like we treat influenza. With an annual vaccine. We have seen how hard it is to "cure" influenza due to the high mutation rate of the virus. I expect something similar from COVID-19.

I posted this pages ago, but this is a very good summary of the spectrum of outcomes:
COVID-19: What to expect — Juliana Grant, MD MPH

That is from a doc that specializes in infectious diseases, and epidemiology (i.e. this is right up her alley).

 

[sundaymorning]

Dude, stop pumping that company. There are dozens working on a vaccine. Do you have stock in that company - at a minimum you should disclose that.

BTW, I've reported you to mods.

read my earlier post, I don’t have a single share or know anyone who owns INO nor do I intend to buy a share, as a matter of fact I stay away from medical stocks due to its volatility. I am giving the forum an example of a company who is on top of this CV debacle as I am sure there are a ton of companies salivating over the billions our nation has pumped into finding a vaccine. My message here is simple: relax, let science take its course, we’ll find a vaccine and humanity will survive regardless of which company gets there first. We’re talking about 3,500 deaths in 2 months!

 

[GFernandes]

As suggested by @Fact Checking the numbers of Italy today increased by 20% vs 30-40% in the days before. Seems like the peak has already happened.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think this is treatable, in the short term, like we treat influenza. With an annual vaccine. We have seen how hard it is to "cure" influenza due to the high mutation rate of the virus. I expect something similar from COVID-19.

I posted this pages ago, but this is a very good summary of the spectrum of outcomes:
COVID-19: What to expect — Juliana Grant, MD MPH

That is from a doc that specializes in infectious diseases, and epidemiology (i.e. this is right up her alley).

Thanks for the quick response. I’ve read in many medical journals that the biggest threat to any pharmaceutical firm’s existence is funding. Most companies can’t get pass certain stages because the corporations couldn’t see the money or profits behind the cure (due to low infection rates), so they would get shut down before success could be declared.

Base on this information alone, I am speculating that the CV will get fast tracked due to its rate of infection and incubation period (on average 5-7 days). This disease is a once in a century disease which we’re lucky to have a very low mortality rate. In your field, have you ever seen government assistance in funding for a cure such as the type we’re getting right now worldwide? I’ve read that Hong Kong is also giving out grants to US companies. I know lots of companies hire a specialist to look for such grants as their full time job. Sometimes having the brightest mind working towards a vaccine yields no result due to the laws of economics. This time, the economics is there.

 

[SageBrush]

California is trying to step up its efforts on coronavirus

Baby step, since out of pocket is just a small fraction of what the final bill can be.

The insurance companies are slooooow to catch on: they have to exclude suspected Covid-19 related expenses from the deductible or cost sharing expenses. I presume they are dilly-dallying to pressure the government to cover expenses. This is where private enterprise sucks big time.

 

[lascavarian]

that’s what I’m saying. The State of Emergency Clause is there for a reason, part of the clause allows states/lawmakers to bypass a lot of the BS and go straight to the origin. Mark my word, this vaccine is on the fast track.

You do realize that "bypassing a lot of BS" could mean that their IP rights can be voided. Vaccines as I view them are not very profitable but a wonderful grace for the world. Not a Dr and not advice.

 

[SageBrush]

read my earlier post, I don’t have a single share or know anyone who owns INO nor do I intend to buy a share, as a matter of fact I stay away from medical stocks due to its volatility. I am giving the forum an example of a company who is on top of this CV debacle as I am sure there are a ton of companies salivating over the billions our nation has pumped into finding a vaccine. My message here is simple: relax, let science take its course, we’ll find a vaccine and humanity will survive regardless of which company gets there first. We’re talking about 3,500 deaths in 2 months!

Lovely thread.
On one side we have @EVNow and friends in hysteria mode, and on the other side you and others in la la land.

 

[EVNow]

Lovely thread.
On one side we have @EVNow and friends in hysteria mode, and on the other side you and others in la la land.

Hysteria ? I'm collecting info and presenting here (as I happen to be in Seattle). If this was mainly spreading in New Mexico, I'm sure you would do the same.

 

[sundaymorning]

As suggested by @Fact Checking the numbers of Italy today increased by 20% vs 30-40% in the days before. Seems like the peak has already happened.

I think when an epicenter of a virus case has peaked, then we’ve likely pass the most dangerous phase of the contagion. A lot of people don’t trust China’s data, they said the same thing in circa 2000 about the Chinese government inflating GDP numbers, well guess what? Those numbers continued to the present day. I don’t think the Chinese are inflating numbers, they are taking this much more seriously than anyone. Many are saying Wuhan cases have peaked.

 

[EinSV]

Baby step, since out of pocket is just a small fraction of what the final bill can be.

I don't think so -- per the SF Chronicle article linked in Gavin Newsom's tweet the order covers all forms of cost-sharing, including "co-pays, deductibles or coinsurance." I suppose the insurance company can still try to jerk you around, but it is now supposed to cover all testing costs (assuming CA actually has the authority to order this).

 

[sundaymorning]

Lovely thread.
On one side we have @EVNow and friends in hysteria mode, and on the other side you and others in la la land.

I was one of the most paranoid investor in 2014 with the Ebola virus epidemic. There were reports of doctors dying on the job left and right as the disease had a 90% death rate. Well guess what, we’re in 2020 and the Ebola virus is no longer a threat (only declared recently by WHO). The CV is infectious, but it ain’t gna bring us down, we’re going to have a mini recession, and a quick recovery. There’s too much money on the line, too many ambitious people and greedy corporations. Relax. See you in a few months, get out of your bomb shelter.

 

[GFernandes]

I think when an epicenter of a virus case has peaked, then we’ve likely pass the most dangerous phase of the contagion. A lot of people don’t trust China’s data, they said the same thing in circa 2000 about the Chinese government inflating GDP numbers, well guess what? Those numbers continued to the present day. I don’t think the Chinese are inflating numbers, they are taking this much more seriously than anyone. Many are saying Wuhan cases have peaked.

I've family in China and I know what CCP is capable of doing. I wont hide it, I was VERY afraid when this just started in Wuhan. Now its clearer. Totally agree with what you posted.

 

[EVNow]

My message here is simple: relax, let science take its course, we’ll find a vaccine and humanity will survive regardless of which company gets there first. We’re talking about 3,500 deaths in 2 months!

That's a poor message. Even if we can't contain its tremendously beneficial to delay and flatten the curve.

 

[KSilver2000]

I don't think so -- per the SF Chronicle article linked in Gavin Newsom's tweet the order covers all forms of cost-sharing, including "co-pays, deductibles or coinsurance." I suppose the insurance company can still try to jerk you around, but it is now supposed to cover all testing costs (assuming CA actually has the authority to order this).

I believe he’s referring to ALL costs related to getting checked for the disease and cared for by medical professionals as necessary. If going to the ER or being admitted, test cost isn’t the only charge. For example, even when you go for a simple X-Ray, there’s more than just the cost of taking the image. Until we get details of this order, it’s hard to say what exactly is $0.