Coronavirus

[renim]

As far as I know, just nasal and back of throat swabs.

'From February 1 to 14, 2020, among all the 73 SARS-CoV-2-infected hospitalized patients, 39 (53.42%) including 25 males and 14 females tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool as shown in Supplementary Table 1. The age of patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool ranged from 10 months to 78 years old. Duration time of positive stool ranged from 1 to 12 days. Furthermore, 17 (23.29%) patients remained positive in stool after showing negative in respiratory samples'

https://www.gastrojournal.org/article/S0016-5085(20)30282-1/fulltext

 

[renim]

Its panic because common sense would tell you we won't have curfew anytime soon.

ok then, take away the curfew and lets restate it

so, who wants to be under curfew on the throne, with COVID-19 diarrhea, and run out of toilet paper.

 

[Sean Wagner]

It's an interesting study in arrogance ("our healthcare system is great"), stupidity ("maybe if we do nothing it will go away"), wishful thinking ("the warm weather will make it go away"), and lack of ability to comprehend exponential growth ("the numbers are nice and low right now"). But not really that interesting I suppose, as it was all extremely obvious weeks ago. Mostly it's an interesting study in stupidity.

Some further thoughts:

We'll be in Italy's situation in roughly 3 weeks in some areas of the US unless extreme measures are taken (it looks like they are being taken now, but unclear exactly how well they will work - they should slow things down a bit for sure). But I assume everyone on this thread knows that already of course.

From inside a hospital in Bergamo, Italy, quote one part of the thread (underline added):
·
Mar 9
12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.
·
13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.
·
14/ The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask "what can I do for you now?"

Dr. Daniele Macchini via Silvia Stringhini @silviast9
Silvia Stringhini on Twitter

 

[doggiehowser]

Counterpoint: The rabies vaccine is given post-exposure. Vaccines can cause the body to muster a faster immune response even when you have already been exposed, which can dramatically reduce the severity of some illnesses.

Hi I’m a veterinarian so I have a lot of knowledge concerning the rabies virus. Rabies is unique in that it travels along the nerves. Most respires viruses (probably corona) are airborne and are first acquired in the lymph nodes in the respiratory system where they quickly replicate and very rapidly spread through the body. If you were to give a flu vaccine on the same day as. Being exposed to the flu the virus would be all over the body before your immune system had time to develop antibodies

Rabies travels via the nerves and it travels by reproducing and slowly expanding along the nerves as opposed to traveling the super highway of the blood stream. A person bit in the foot could incubate Rabies for 6 months. That’s how long it would take the virus to wander along the nerves to finally get to the brain. If after a bite you give rabies antiserum and rabies vaccine the vaccine circulated in the blood and causes the body to make anti body’s months before the virus hits the brain. That’s why the Pasteur treatment works and why giving a flu shot at the same time you’re exposed to the flu doesnt

 

[EVNow]

I am currently debating whether I should stop sending my kids to school. I am worried why US is not taking precaution when the cases haven’t stopped. I am New York area and already one suburb has been in lockdown.

Partial containment’s won’t work unless everyone participates.

No, my personal case is that my parents are visiting for a few months so just want to prevent spreading. But I am guessing the spread can be contained in communities if proactive decisions are taken. Kids can bring virus in families and they can then spread them around in communities.

I guess the other thing could be that elderly folks should self quarantine themselves.

We are in similar situation - except the parents are here already. So kids are not going to school.

In your case the safe thing to do is to ask your parents to postpone the visit.

 

[EVNow]

From inside a hospital in Bergamo, Italy, quote one part of the thread (underline added):

Similar lines … when someone says it will only affect the old - we should tell them "old" is relative.

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators.

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

….

"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."
​

Lest anyone think Italy health care isn't good and that's why they are having problems ...

The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.​

​

 

[renim]

FWIW, today sometime the Australian prime minister will say someithing regarding Coronavirus, its probably somewhat relevant to American's in so far as Federal USA will consider the Australian options and then pick and choose elements that Federal America deems transferable.

yesterday included
telehealth service will be available and it will be bulk-billed
Isolated or vulnerable patients will also be able to have their PBS prescriptions filled online or remotely, and to have medicines delivered to their home.
Up to 100 ‘pop-up respiratory clinics’ set up across Australia


the big unstated move is that the some state health hospitals are clearing out some ICUs and elective services to the private health system in anticipation of the upcoming wave of COVID19. Its an option that Australia has that I doubt is so readily applicable to most other peer countries.

 

[linux-works]

so, who wants to be under curfew on the throne, with COVID-19 diarrhea, and run out of toilet paper.

just to be clear, all the pet rabbits are gone, by now, right?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I think I might have the distinction of being the first COVID-19 positive member of TMC. My wife is a provider in Kirkland WA, and was exposed at work. She came down with symptoms Sunday evening, and I came down with almost the exact same symptoms a few hours later. We were only able to get her tested, because she is a health care worker. Normal people can not get tested unless they are bad enough to be hospitalized. Her results came in this morning and she was a "strong positive." We both are miserable, but so far our symptoms are on the mild end of the spectrum. It is very scary. Hopefully our symptoms will remain mild. We also know a number of other health workers who have been infected and had much, much worse times of it, than we have so far. This is definitely not just another flu. We are extremely afraid for ourselves, our parents, our community, and the economy.

Oh no! Our thoughts and prayers are with you!

I fully understand if you can't do this, but can you give us a blow by blow account? I realize it is anecdotal since COVID-19 will present differently in different people, but it still would be informational to know what your symptoms were, and how it has progressed. Can I also ask your age ranges? Again, just ignore me if this is getting off base.

 

[renim]

just to be clear, all the pet rabbits are gone, by now, right?

2 chooks but alas no rabbits.

yeah, local quarantine mindset. the sticker upped it from $44,000

 

[RossBrindleyAU]

You will never see how many papers an author has had rejected. The system doesn't work that way. I've been neck deep in it, and that is just not data that any journal will ever publish.
.......

Anyone remember Andrew Wakefield? He falsified research and claimed a definitive link between vaccines and autism. That paper has since been disproven (we've spent more on this topic than all of the Apollo missions to send men to the moon). Despite being disproven it did huge damage to the confidence of the public in the scientific community and even the physician-patient relationship. This scenario is exactly why peer review exists.

I cannot let this pass without comment and in now way am I trying to set off another thread about Autism but:

Andrew Wakefield published a paper saying that he felt there was sufficient evidence to warrant a full study into the potential link. At no point did he say his research positively linked the MMR vaccine to Autism, simply that from stories he heard from his patients and other sources the link needed to be properly researched to either confirm or discount the link.

I am sick of people saying he published false findings and he is a fraud. He was only trying to bring proper attention to a POSSIBLE link.

 

[linux-works]

yeah, local quarantine mindset. the sticker upped it from $44,000

sounds like a 'bad hare' day.

 

[EVNow]

Italy had a horrible day.

Almost 200 people in Italy died from coronavirus in 24 hours, Italy's Civil Protection Agency says — the highest daily increase in absolute terms registered anywhere in the world since the respiratory illness emerged in China at the end of 2019.
​

This one is before today's update.

 

[mswlogo]

I’m a bit confused.

A co-worker from China has been in contact with relatives in China. Couple things he said.

They turned STADIUMS into ICU units.

They completely shut the country down for a month.

They are just getting back to “normal” now.

But why aren’t they still at risk?

Was everyone in China eventually exposed and either died or they now have anti bodies to fight it?

If that’s the case are we just deferring the inevitable? That everyone must/will get exposed sooner or later and hope for the best.

The only thing that social distancing might do is allow time to develop a vaccine. But word is that could take a year. We all gonna stop for a year?

I realize we done want to overwhelm our broken healthcare system. But did China handle this right by just turning the whole country into a hospital and dealt with it?

Would society be better off not doing the social distancing. Especially colleges with lots of young kids that should get exposed now to protect them for the future? Just send the older staff home

 

[VValleyEV]

I’m a bit confused.

A co-worker from China has been in contact with relatives in China. Couple things he said.

They turned STADIUMS into ICU units.

They completely shut the country down for a month.

They are just getting back to “normal” now.

But why aren’t they still at risk?

Was everyone in China eventually exposed and either died or they now have anti bodies to fight it?

If that’s the case are we just deferring the inevitable? That everyone must/will get exposed sooner or later and hope for the best.

The only thing that social distancing might do is allow time to develop a vaccine. But word is that could take a year. We all gonna stop for a year?

I realize we done want to overwhelm our broken healthcare system. But did China handle this right by just turning the whole country into a hospital and dealt with it?

Would society be better off not doing the social distancing. Especially colleges with lots of young kids that should get exposed now to protect them for the future? Just send the older staff home

BELOW diagram illustrates the reason for delaying the speed of disease spread. Too fast and you overwhelm the health system.

 

[renim]

repreat post

much better to be treated in ICU than left untreated.

 

[Rande]

My predictions based on data analysis:

Within 10 days, Germany, France and Spain will be in lockdown.

Within 15 days, most (if not all) of Europe (including UK) will be in lockdown.

Within 15 days, at least one state in the US will be in lockdown (Washington state and New York state are likely contenders).

Within 20 days, all of the US will be in lockdown.

Within 25 days, Australia and Canada will be in lockdown.

 

[Pras]

We are in similar situation - except the parents are here already. So kids are not going to school.

In your case the safe thing to do is to ask your parents to postpone the visit.

No the parents are already here. So in the same boat.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

In addition to flattening the curve, as mentioned above, I would add...

If that’s the case are we just deferring the inevitable?

It buys time, in addition to flattening the curve.

Was everyone in China eventually exposed and either died or they now have anti bodies to fight it?

No, not everyone was exposed. I guess this might have been a rhetorical question.

But why aren’t they still at risk?

Because there is very little virus circulating in the country. They are at extremely low risk.

China proved that through aggressive social distancing measures, this epidemic can be brought under control, and in fact, new infections can be brought to near zero. Note that they started in a much worse situation than we are currently in right now. So if we act NOW we can end up with a better result.

Going forward in China:
With further AGGRESSIVE sentinel testing, it is even possible for them to go forward and resume regular economic activity with localized quarantines as new cases pop up. The primary risk factor right now in China is introductions from the rest of the world. That is actually a manageable issue, and I think they will come up with solutions there.

There's no reason that this virus cannot be brought under control worldwide - but it requires all countries to do their part and be honest and devote sufficient resources to minimize community transmission and stamp out outbreaks as they occur. That is done with the aggressive identification of cases and rapid response.

There's no reason this can't be done in the US once the crisis is brought down to reasonable levels. This will be accomplished by aggressive widespread testing and social distancing, in areas where this is required (anywhere community spread is taking place).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Within 20 days, all of the US will be in lockdown.

I hope you are wrong, and we go into lockdown in all areas with community spread immediately (it does look like things are going that way).