Even in cold weather the car doesn't really lose that much range just sitting. It will have to keep the battery "warm" but that's not a lot. I don't get that cold, but even on the days of 20 to 25 degrees when it's in my parking lot (open air, often with a strong wind) I might see 1% or 2% battery (on the long range pack, 75kWh) lost between when I park and 8 hours later when I leave. It's the preconditioning that sucks down the energy, and that's because it's bringing the cabin up to 70 or 75F or whatever. I wouldn't run that for 30 to 60 minutes (unless the car was plugged in and I could heat soak the battery and cabin without using battery power). It brings the cabin up to temp pretty fast... I would say five minutes, maybe ten minutes and everything will be nice and toasty. Possibly up to a 5% battery drain, but I think might was more like 3% for five minutes or so of running the heater before getting to my car.
Now driving you have to think in energy usage, kWh or wh/mile. You can't say indicated range and actual range because that changes so much with different conditions. What I would say, is if you're buying a Model 3, make sure to get the Long Range or Performance. The SR+ just is a little rough to own in the winter, especially if it's not just a second car and you plan to use it for road trips. The packs are a little larger now, but lets just say 75 kWh (75,000 wh) because that's what the long range packs were at launch. I would say doing under 50 mph in those cold conditions, maybe even with some slush on the roadway or standing water, it'll be about 325 wh/mi. (This is worst case, I'm sure someone is going to comment they get much better range, blah blah blah). Do figure out how much range you have you take your energy you have in your battery (75,000 wh) and divide that by the energy used for every mile (325). That gets you about 230 miles from a totally full to totally empty battery. Much less then Tesla advertises but probably a good "worst case" for winter weather where you run the heat lots and just drive city speed or moderate highway (50mph) speeds.
Now you have to play around with how much battery you want to use. Normally you don't want to charge to 100% every day, 90% is about the max most people say you should charge to if you want the max life out of your battery. You also probably don't want to get home with 1% or 2% left. Again most people say 10% is about as low as you should routinely go. That gives you 80% of your battery that you can routinely use. Take the full capacity (75,000 wh) and times it by 80% (0.80) and you get 60,000 wh. That's now your actual daily amount you probably want to use and at 325 wh every mile, that 60,000 wh will take you 184 miles. It's not actual that hard once you start thinking like this.
If you can charge at home every night you're totally fine, don't even worry about leaving the car outside all day and using 10 minutes or so to get the car up to temp before you jump into it. If you can't charge at home and need to use a public charger, the ownership experience will be a lot less enjoyable, but still can work.