Can Tesla deal with 500K Model 3's?

[N5329K]

I read the Model S and Model X threads sometimes, and two fairly constant issues (for both cars) is factory build errors causing problems and long waits for replacement parts. Whether it's AC hoses reversed at assembly, or months at the Service Center awaiting suspension parts, it seems Tesla is (to say the least) challenged by building, supporting and maintaining a relatively modest fleet of cars.
What needs to happen before that fleet suddenly expands by a factor of four or five? Or ten?
Robin

 

[JeffK]

They need a less complex car to manufacture, they are calling it a Model 3.

As long as more of the car can be built by machine and workers have adequate training for hand assembled items then it's not really that big of an issue. A car less complex to manufacture has much less to go wrong.

 

[WileyTheMan]

I anticipate parts shortages for the first few months, if not years. No company likes keeping large amounts of inventory just sitting around, so they will want to walk the fine line of having enough spare parts to deal with demand, but not enough that they have a large amount of money locked up on shelves. They will need to find a balance in that and hope they don't have a string of defects or issues to deal with.

 

[JeffK]

I anticipate parts shortages for the first few months, if not years. No company likes keeping large amounts of inventory just sitting around, so they will want to walk the fine line of having enough spare parts to deal with demand, but not enough that they have a large amount of money locked up on shelves. They will need to find a balance in that and hope they don't have a string of defects or issues to deal with.

I don't see this happening longer than a few months. Suppliers are more than capable of supplying necessary parts in the volume needed once their manufacturing is set up. These suppliers are used to much greater volumes than Tesla is asking for, they just aren't used to such a quick timeline to manufacturing. You'd be looking at up front latency, but the bandwidth will be fine once things start rolling.

 

[N5329K]

I don't see this happening longer than a few months. Suppliers are more than capable of supplying necessary parts in the volume needed once their manufacturing is set up. These suppliers are used to much greater volumes than Tesla is asking for, they just aren't used to such a quick timeline to manufacturing. You'd be looking at up front latency, but the bandwidth will be fine once things start rolling.

OK. But then, why is that not working now? Honest question.
Robin

 

[JeffK]

OK. But then, why is that not working now? Honest question.
Robin

What parts do they have a shortage on at the moment? Ok, you're probably referring to the Model X

"The parts in question were only half a dozen out of more than 8,000 unique parts"

and Tesla didn't have the capability in-house to supply these. I don't know what those 6 parts are though but it only takes one to cause a delay. Since the production of Model X is still ramping up I would say you're still in the latency phase. Also, from early quality issues I wonder how many of these parts had to go back to the drawing board.

interesting read: Will Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Deliveries Jump 50% This Quarter? -- The Motley Fool

 

[N5329K]

Model S suspension components, and, recently, Model X door (FWD and other) components. There may be more. I haven't sifted through all the non-Model 3 threads exhaustively. Now, these are more complex cars being built by a company that is learning how to build cars in quantity. But the numbers projected for the Model 3 are so vastly greater that "doing what we already do only more of it" doesn't seem to really address the problem. It suggests there's no "Gigafactory" approach that will work. Cutting down on factory errors will be huge. Creating a more streamlined, efficient and above all faster parts ecosystem (including better, faster Service Center resolutions) also seems huge. These are two tall hurdles.
Robin

 

[JeffK]

Model S suspension components, and, recently, Model X door (FWD and other) components. There may be more. I haven't sifted through all the non-Model 3 threads exhaustively. Now, these are more complex cars being built by a company that is learning how to build cars in quantity. But the numbers projected for the Model 3 are so vastly greater that "doing what we already do only more of it" doesn't seem to really address the problem. It suggests there's no "Gigafactory" approach that will work. Cutting down on factory errors will be huge. Creating a more streamlined, efficient and above all faster parts ecosystem (including better, faster Service Center resolutions) also seems huge. These are two tall hurdles.
Robin

I forgot to mention, I also think the hiring of Peter Hochholdinger, Audi’s former Senior Director of Production is going to help out a lot come time for the Model 3 roll out.

 

[22522]

These are two tall hurdles.
Robin

Tesla used the edge of the incentive to set a gradient; and an incredibly beautiful design (particularly) compared to the Bolt to set a gradient; and a just credible deposit that overhangs the market for cars (and more importantly the market for car parts) to establish demand and motivate a largely different set of players to join the team.

The team is different, more professional and more committed.

 

[JeffK]

The team is different, more professional and more committed.

err with the exception of the thousands of newly hired factory workers who can make human errors. Let's hope they have a great training program!

 

[182RG]

Now you know why I deliberately waited 30 days to reserve. I don't want any of the first 100,000 cars, or so. That old IT adage about being on the "bleeding edge". I'll wait.

 

[pinski]

Now you know why I deliberately waited 30 days to reserve. I don't want any of the first 100,000 cars, or so. That old IT adage about being on the "bleeding edge". I'll wait.

Even though I'm a day-one reserver, I'm hoping that by being a non-Tesla owning, East Coaster who won't option his car to the moon, I'll get one with most of the kinks worked out.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Even though I'm a day-one reserver, I'm hoping that by being a non-Tesla owning, East Coaster who won't option his car to the moon, I'll get one with most of the kinks worked out.

^^ This ^^


All of the employees and California-area current owners get to be live Beta.

By the time mine gets put on its eastbound train, things should have sorted themselves out.

 

[flamingoezz]

you could have waited 30 minutes to reserve and not been in the first 100,000

Now you know why I deliberately waited 30 days to reserve. I don't want any of the first 100,000 cars, or so. That old IT adage about being on the "bleeding edge". I'll wait.

 

[Booga]

Even though I'm a day-one reserver, I'm hoping that by being a non-Tesla owning, East Coaster who won't option his car to the moon, I'll get one with most of the kinks worked out.

The $7,500 tax credit will make it worth it either way.

 

[Tiberius]

Production Ramp Speculation

Accelerated production a mistake...

Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

The ambitious target to model 3 500k

 

[N5329K]

Production Ramp Speculation

Accelerated production a mistake...

Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

The ambitious target to model 3 500k

I get that the "ramp" has has lots of discussion. Maybe we need a dead horse emoji?
But most of those older threads assume that Tesla "learned its lesson" with the rollout of the Model X, and that they are too smart to make the same mistake twice. The Model 3 was "designed with efficient manufacturing in mind." That yes, the first XXXXXX 3's will have issues, but the company will iron them out before the second wave of deliveries take place.
The MX is a special case, but there are still parts supply and servicing issues with the more mature (relatively speaking) Model S. My dead horse pounding post today is really about whether Tesla can just do more of the same and deal with a tsunami of Model 3's, or if they need something more systemic in the way of a solution. Because failure is not an option.
Who does parts supply and service the best?
Robin

 

[N5329K]

On the other hand, Tesla owner complaints seem pretty mild compared with these:
BMW
Robin

 

[Booga]

1) no one really knows how this will all turn out, not even people in the company

2) you'll hear of the early reports and can factor that into your decision depending on when exactly tesla will let you back out of the purchase

3) if you want a full matured product, I would simply say that tesla is still less mature than other firms and using technology that isn't mainstream, yet. Because of that, you should expect this car to need some care, attention, and willingness to work through any challenges.

I'm happy to do it, because I love the technology and the ability to charge st home with autopilot on highway driving

 

[N5329K]

Most of us who come here will follow through on our reservation with a car. But that's us. And speaking personally, I have no worries in the "care, attention and willingness to work through challenges" arena. I own and maintain a Triumph, after all.
My only point is this: if Tesla hopes to capture a meaningful slice of the mass market (that's not us), it has to become better at things the mass market requires. Performance is a given. They do performance just fine. Range is a given. They're good at range. Style? Check.
But reliability? Service? Parts? Those are irritations now. Multiply the fleet by five or ten, spread it out among buyers who do not frequent the TMC site, and "irritations" become something different and a lot more serious.
As one of Tesla's founders liked to say, "cars are harder than software." You can fix a software issue inexpensively and quickly over the air. Silicon Valley depends on that. Cars?
Not so much.
Robin