Brexit

[neroden]

She's going to quit at the next election anyway, because she's already damaged from their ineptitude.

Which is pretty much an admission that she lacks the confidence of the people to govern.

Under ancient British constitutional principles, she should really be sacked by the Queen, along with Parliament. But like I say -- constitutional crisis!

I'd actually say it's only the biggest constitutional crisis since the 1830s, when lack of trust by the people in a highly unrepresentative Parliament, and Lord Liverpool ordering the army to fire on peaceful protestors repeatedly, *and* major economic problems, led to demands for the Reform Act. I don't think there's been a "legitimacy gap" that large for the UK government since then... but this is close.

The US, on the other hand, has a government with the least legitimacy since, probably, James Buchanan.

 

[cheshire cat]

The lipreaders I know say "people" and "woman" look very similar.

Yes but to appreciate the point you would have to be an aficionado of " Ello- Ello ". A much loved but now sadly non Pc comedy, from the BBC, ( Al- Ja-beeba ) altho' now they may try to deny it Anyway as we're approaching the new Brexit season ( like the TV schedules) I thought I'd kick off with this, hopefully informative, but I' sure fact checking will be along soon to give us all the real story . Jean-Claude Juncker's boast about the euro is an insulting fantasy - CapX

 

[adiggs]

Incredibly, a no deal scenario is picking up momentum in the UK. As Trump would say:
Bad for the EU
Bad for the UK
Brexit: most Tory members would choose no deal over May's plan
EU need to through us a bone on the backstop before we actually shoot ourselves in the foot..

As a distant outsider, I appreciate these updates on what's going on with Brexit. Again, as a distant outsider, I'm amazed at the the thinking I see here. My translation being "let's make it a lot harder and more expensive to trade with our primary trading partner - that'll be good for our economy and businesses, because making business harder and more expensive is frequently the path to prosperity".

 

[neroden]

The really odd thing is that the EU is doomed anyway because the Euro is a straightjacket which leads to fascism... but the UK *wasn't part of the Eurozone*. Literally everyone else has better reasons to leave the EU. Even Germany.

 

[bhtooefr]

From the roundtable:

I always prefer to rip the band-aid off rapidly so the recovery can begin sooner. Sure it hurt as hell. It's actually interesting to know that some people prefer the slow method and see it as a positive.

The trick is that the slow method gives more of a chance to restructure without running into an apocalypse.

However, looks like they're gonna run into that apocalypse either way, so...

 

[Causalien]

From the roundtable:



The trick is that the slow method gives more of a chance to restructure without running into an apocalypse.

However, looks like they're gonna run into that apocalypse either way, so...

True that. Chaos is an opportunity. I realized that trading and investing has structured my mind that way. Might not be ideal for running a country or a corporation.

 

[Lasairfion]

I never did quite understand why Greece didn't just quit the Eurozone. Their economy would've collapsed, but it was terrible anyway. It wouldve left them in the position of going back to worthless drachmas, which actually is a good thing.

Most of the income for Greece is tourism. The sun is shiny, the temperature is hot, and suddenly it's the cheapest holiday destination by far. Where will all the tourists go that year? Of course to Greece. So there's an income problem solved.

Imports are too expensive to afford when your currency is on the down. Cheaper to manufacture them yourself really. There's a job problem on the way to being solved, and a revitalised manufacturing base.

So I dunno why they just went with the EMF/German loan thing.

Anyway, back to Brexit.

May has done herself no favours by trying to involve herself in a so called 'deal'. The EU executive made it quite clear from the outset that leave meant leave and that they weren't going to accept any sort of compromises. So why she keeps trying to make deals that won't be accepted, I don't know.

All it has done is put her in the position where the EU doesn't like her, the Leave voters think she is undercutting their referendum win and the Remain voters think she's a traitor. Turn the situation round and she couldn't have lost.

Had May said "We're doing a Hard Brexit" then she could've argued that "It's what the people voted for" to the Leave voters; "I personally would like a compromise, but I'm going with the outcome of the Referendum" to the Remain voters; and "I'm doing what the people voted for, and agreeing with you on the no compromise thing" to the EU. She couldn't have lost.

So why she keeps on at it, goodness knows. I think by now it's blatantly obvious that foregoing some delay agreement on the date, then a hard Brexit is very likely. It'd have been much better for her leadership (and sanity) had she just gone with that from the very start.

As for Ireland I really, really, really can't understand the issue here. I'm told that the problem is that there's a border between Northern Ireland and Eire. One that currently no-one really needs to worry about. Now personally I don't see why we need to put a border back up even if we leave. If people in Eire want to wander over to NI and spend their cash on things, then that benefits NI surely. If people wander over a bit more permanently then as long as we make it quite clear that you don't get benefits or free health-care without proof positive of NI citizenship then that problem is sorted out too. So the main issue left is that some Del Boy type could pick up a load of stuff cheap from the EU, and then drag it across the border and sell it cheap in NI without paying potential tariffs. Very nice deals for the Northern Irelanders.

In other words, let me clarify my point: there's no downside for the UK or Northern Ireland.

May could stand up for NI and say "we, the UK will not put up any borders between these two countries" and she could meet that deal with no qualms. Now of course Eire and the EU might object. "This ruins the point of our tariffs" they might say. They might well put up a border on their side of the road to try and enforce things. Pity those poor Eire inhabitants who need to go shopping in the next town over now instead of just up the road, because of the EU tariffs on products that would need to be paid when they returned home.

But, you see... this isn't NI's problem. It isn't the UK's problem. It isn't May's problem. It's those mean old EU lot who've put a border on your Eire side of the road. We don't have one on our side, you can wander over and spend your cash or bring stuff in as much as you like. It's the EU being mean to you.

The onus all lands on the EU. A group we're leaving. It's their problem.

Once again, she couldn't lose.

 

[bhtooefr]

As I understand, part of the problem is that one thing that led people to vote to leave the EU was to prevent migration into Great Britain, and to do that, a harder border has to be established so people don't simply evade the border control by going through Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The choice is whether that harder border is between Northern Ireland and Ireland (unacceptable) or between Northern Ireland and Great Britain (also unacceptable).

 

[Lasairfion]

I don't see why a border between NI and GB is a problem. We already make checks at the Airports for people crossing from NI to the rest of the UK, that border already exists in part: so there's your border check there with little extra effort for the Ports.

With technology these days you can have fast and effective ID cards akin to the Oyster transport cards already used in London, or the vehicle mounted DartCard that is used for toll roads. Something like this would make travelling convenient for all people between NI and GB anyway.

What does it matter if immigrants do enter NI from Eire? I don't see the problem. If people want to wander between the two and spend their money, so what?

In order to work, pay taxes, claim benefits, use healthcare etc you have to be a citizen of NI. Anyone without the correct proof and paperwork isn't going to be able to live in NI and use the services or have a decent job without such. So a hard border really isn't needed.

People won't get any further than the sea. And they won't be able to use taxpayer supported services in NI. Anything else, I don't really see the issue.

As an aside: While a good number of people certainly did vote 'Leave' on populist issues such as funding for the NHS and immigration I'm glad to say that there were plenty of people that voted on actual real issues such as Sovereignty and the terrifying lack of democracy within the EU Executive, the powerlessness of the European Parliament to actually stop any bad laws and the despicable power grabs of the European Courts of Human Rights and Justice.

 

[sweter]

The thing is that Irish border becomes an EU border and by EU treaties it needs to be protected.

You are greatly oversimplifying the issue to just people doing their daily shopping. But the real issue is smuggling goods, including animals and food, in and outside of the EU. E.g. the EU has specific laws and health and quality control before livestock can be imported. Leaving that border open leaves a huge channel for illegal imports.

 

[guidooo]

I'm glad to say that there were plenty of people that voted on actual real issues such as Sovereignty and the terrifying lack of democracy within the EU Executive, the powerlessness of the European Parliament to actually stop any bad laws and the despicable power grabs of the European Courts of Human Rights and Justice.

Wonderful. So no need to make a fuss about it. Accept the divorce one way or the other. So UK citizens can take the united kingdom back and let the institutions of the European Union do all those terrible things to EU citizens. Both sides of the channel have their chosen future to build.

 

[Buckminster]

It's not Brexit Britain most likely to have a recession. It's Germany
Do most here believe a German recession is likely? Autos and Mittelstand could easily look antiquated very quickly.

 

[Lasairfion]

The thing is that Irish border becomes an EU border and by EU treaties it needs to be protected.

You are greatly oversimplifying the issue to just people doing their daily shopping. But the real issue is smuggling goods, including animals and food, in and outside of the EU. E.g. the EU has specific laws and health and quality control before livestock can be imported. Leaving that border open leaves a huge channel for illegal imports.

Of course I'm simplifying it. There quite obviously would be a border put in place due to all the reasons you point out. My point is that May could have forced the EU to put it in place rather than the UK, thus getting out of the blame.

It's not Brexit Britain most likely to have a recession. It's Germany
Do most here believe a German recession is likely? Autos and Mittelstand could easily look antiquated very quickly.

Well, with 857,336 (2016) people working in the motor industry (third highest car production in the world, and fourth highest total motor vehicle production) I think that the electrification process could have some serious fall out for the German economy.

I had to look up Mittelstand. I don't think that family owned small-medium enterprise is necessarily a bad thing. It all depends on how adaptable they are to the fast pace of the modern era.

 

[neroden]

I never did quite understand why Greece didn't just quit the Eurozone. Their economy would've collapsed, but it was terrible anyway. It wouldve left them in the position of going back to worthless drachmas, which actually is a good thing.

Most of the income for Greece is tourism. The sun is shiny, the temperature is hot, and suddenly it's the cheapest holiday destination by far. Where will all the tourists go that year? Of course to Greece. So there's an income problem solved.

Imports are too expensive to afford when your currency is on the down. Cheaper to manufacture them yourself really. There's a job problem on the way to being solved, and a revitalised manufacturing base.

So I dunno why they just went with the EMF/German loan thing.

Yeah. Greece was threatened every which way, but the obviously correct move was to leave the Eurozone and default on the external debts. Germany and so forth could scream and shout but they couldn't *do* anything, and going back to the drachma would have triggered a quick economic boom.


Regarding Ireland, it would be rather interesting if the UK, Northern Ireland, and Eire simply refused to put up a border and refused to set up customs. Supposedly the EU is required to have an external customs border, but *they have no way of enforcing that requirement on Ireland* -- it could just become the A#1 smuggling center for the EU. I don't know exactly how that would play out, but it would probably honestly be quite popular among almost everyone. The current shenanigans with the EU currency are crazier than that, so this situation -- EU sternly telling Ireland to set up a customs border, Ireland refusing, nothing happening -- could last indefinitely.

 

[EVNow]

Brexit could be delayed if Labour forces general... | Daily Mail Online

Mr Corbyn confirmed that Labour would go into any early election on a platform of opening new negotiations with Brussels on a Brexit deal involving a customs union, single market relationship and a guarantee to keep pace with EU rights and standards.

So, what is left out ? Free people's movement ?

 

[cheshire cat]

Yeah. Greece was threatened every which way, but the obviously correct move was to leave the Eurozone and default on the external debts. Germany and so forth could scream and shout but they couldn't *do* anything, and going back to the drachma would have triggered a quick economic boom.


Regarding Ireland, it would be rather interesting if the UK, Northern Ireland, and Eire simply refused to put up a border and refused to set up customs. Supposedly the EU is required to have an external customs border, but *they have no way of enforcing that requirement on Ireland* -- it could just become the A#1 smuggling center for the EU. I don't know exactly how that would play out, but it would probably honestly be quite popular among almost everyone. The current shenanigans with the EU currency are crazier than that, so this situation -- EU sternly telling Ireland to set up a customs border, Ireland refusing, nothing happening -- could last indefinitely.

The best bit of that was that under a previous Irish government there was a joint border committee set up to cover this problem, having almost completed their findings which was a soft border could be easily handled, this got canned once the EU saw it could be a lever to their advantage, then revved up little Leo ( current Teashop) to cause trouble, probably with promise of a next cushy berth in Brussels later, this now has turned to become the main stumbling block. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/image...a0dfc6b1fc416d4772ebb1f7e9bb1b65b0bb7ac2b.jpg. I fear the Irish have been shot in the foot in the long term. If anyone remembers they were stupid enough to be conned into a second referendum on EU membership when the first one didn't produce the desired result--------- now where have I heard that recently ?

 

[Buckminster]

It seems that the May, Parliament, the UK, the EU and the world are currently at :

PEAK CONFUSED

All while the US have some little problem about a "not a wall".

 

[guidooo]

Could be, but if you ask me confusion is a mindset independent of external circumstances.

 

[Lasairfion]

I think the monopolies commission needs to be brought in. I'm very concerned about the levels of confusion present in politicians in general.

 

[cheshire cat]

It seems that the May, Parliament, the UK, the EU and the world are currently at :

PEAK CONFUSED

All while the US have some little problem about a "not a wall".

I think we should spend a little of our Brexit cash £4 billion equivalent and treat Mr Trump to a wall, and get US back to work, in exchange we would get a good trade deal and have £35 B' left. This would equate to approx £50 M per constituency to spend on local infrastructure or we could have a party. Is there anything we need that can't be bought in the US ?