Brexit

[Buckminster]

So EU have caved - all but Northern Ireland will have the right to leave customs union. Northern Ireland get to stay in. Apparently it's not going down too well with Brexiteers (including DUP obviously). Not making the headlines here surprisingly. I hope that the MPs take it. We should be doing a deal that keeps close ties to EU anyway.

My update:
No deal - 15%
Hard Brexit following Article 50 extension - 5%
Teresa May deal with legal backstop change - 70%
Norway/Soft Brexit following extension - 5%
Remain following referendum - 5%

 

[RobStark]

UK won't accept Brexit deal that puts union at risk - PM's party chairman | Reuters

 

[Buckminster]

Big week in Brexit coming up. May get overshadowed here though....

 

[KarenRei]

Brexit is just about to get voted down any minute now. The question is the margin. It's expected that if it's under ~30 votes May will try yet again.

 

[SebastianR]

Theresa May lost her vote...

242 yes, 391 no

 

[Fact Checking]

Brexit is just about to get voted down any minute now. The question is the margin. It's expected that if it's under ~30 votes May will try yet again.

She lost by a widely expected 100+ votes margin: 142...

No do-over, so on to tomorrow's vote to delay Brexit.

Anyone still deluded about "efficient markets" should take a look at the significant market reaction: her heavy loss was 99.9% certain...

 

[lklundin]

She lost by a widely expected 100+ votes margin: 142...

No do-over, so on to tomorrow's vote to delay Brexit.

Anyone still deluded about "efficient markets" should take a look at the significant market reaction: her heavy loss was 99.9% certain...

Nice save on the market relevance.

But what options if any does the UK have for unilaterally delaying the Brexit?

 

[KarenRei]

Nice save on the market relevance.

But what options if any does the UK have for unilaterally delaying the Brexit?

They need EU consent to do so.

The EU has made it clear that they'll agree if it's in order for the UK to take a specific path that will lead to a definitive, unambiguous outcome, but not if it's just to delay and hope.

 

[Fact Checking]

But what options if any does the UK have for unilaterally delaying the Brexit?

This was always an option: withdraw the article 50 notice.

The EU would likely grant a few months delay, as long as the delay doesn't go beyond July-ish, when the new EU parliament gets seated. (Without British members.)

 

[KarenRei]

This was always an option: withdraw the article 50 notice.

The EU would likely grant a few months delay, as long as the delay doesn't go beyond July-ish, when the new EU parliament gets seated. (Without British members.)

It's looking increasingly likely that that will have to happen. Which would mean an entire year's delay to the UK leaving the EU, including the UK taking part in EU elections and paying dues for an additional year.

 

[EVNow]

It's looking increasingly likely that that will have to happen. Which would mean an entire year's delay to the UK leaving the EU, including the UK taking part in EU elections and paying dues for an additional year.

Oh no - not 350 Million per week again - that Tories so wanted to invest in NHS !

I think if there is a delay, the market will just forget about Brexit and ignore it going forward.

 

[AlexS]

Nice save on the market relevance.

But what options if any does the UK have for unilaterally delaying the Brexit?

I somehow remember going through some documents, they can delay Brexit indefinitely. So I think they will do it until next elections and then party who will promise to have new referendum will win elections.

 

[lklundin]

This was always an option: withdraw the article 50 notice.

The EU would likely grant a few months delay, as long as the delay doesn't go beyond July-ish, when the new EU parliament gets seated. (Without British members.)

But to withdraw the article 50, the UK would have to agree with themselves to do so before March 29.

Naturally, there is a non-zero probability of this happening.

That's like when I was playing pool in Los Alamos and we would joke that due to the quantum tunneling effect, there was a non-zero probability that - without causing it to move - the cue ball could pass through the 8 ball.

In the case of the UK, the probability is bound by their inability to accept that they made an incorrect decision. Unlike Elon Musk. See? An on-topic post.

 

[Fact Checking]

But to withdraw the article 50, the UK would have to agree with themselves to do so before March 29.

Naturally, there is a non-zero probability of this happening.

That's what tomorrow's vote is about: the UK parliament will rule out a "no-deal" crash-out, which gives May authority to delay.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

An Englishman, Welshman, North Irishman, and a Scot walk into a Pub.........




The Englishman wants to leave........................








So EVERYBODY has got to leave.....ha ha

 

[Tslynk67]

She lost by a widely expected 100+ votes margin: 142...

No do-over, so on to tomorrow's vote to delay Brexit.

Anyone still deluded about "efficient markets" should take a look at the significant market reaction: her heavy loss was 99.9% certain...

I'm shocked to have to point out an error in one of your posts, FC, but I guess it happens from time to time.

The vote tomorrow in the UK parliament is whether to accept a no-deal Brexit. If that vote passes, then the UK crashes out fo the EU in 29th March. If they vote not to accept a no-deal, then there are options, nice laid-out (as best we know it right now) in this BBC decision-tree:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is all I can think of when anyone mentions Brexit.

What a sad but appropriate finale for baby boomers across the board globally. Half hearted racism/authoritarianism and leaderless whining.

 

[Mader Levap]

Summary of Brexit: UK wants to eat cake and have cake. Results? Predictable.

 

[RobStark]

Summary of Brexit: UK wants to eat cake and have cake. Results? Predictable.

While the EU wants to humiliate and punish the UK for leaving.

As a warning to every other nation in the EU that might want to leave.

Just like the Cosa Nostra.