Wish List Vs. What You're Likely To Get
Taking a different approach to the BlueStar discussion . . .
When I have spoken to Tesla they have consistently and repeatedly said that BlueStar will target a BMW 3-series. The base price has always been around $35,000 ($42,500 before the Federal tax credit). {Stripped down BMW 328i is $34,600 as a base} Their rationale is that Tesla is a premium product, they don't want to dilute their brand, it should be aspirational, etc. At $35,000 they will be about $5,000 more than the Leaf and $2,500 more than a basic Volt. So they can still compete head to head with those cars.
The base Model S is $57,400 so to chop the price down to $42,400 - a 26% reduction - they are going to have to chop their greatest expense - the battery. The battery cost to the consumer is roughly $400-$500 per kWh presently (cost to Tesla is less than this but they have gross margins they have promised Wall Street), so let's call it $450 per kWh.. Of the $57,400 Model S price, a minimum of $18,000 or nearly one-third of the car's cost is the battery. There is no way that Tesla can chop the Model S by 26% without chopping the battery.
So the battery must be reduced by 25% from 40 kWh to 30 kWh and this reduces the cost (at retail) by $4,500.
If we assume a 20% reduction in battery costs between now and then that would get us roughly a (20% x $450 x 30) $2,700 reduction in price.
So that gets us $7,200 in retail price reductions with a remaining $7,800 to go.
Now we've just slashed the battery 25% but we don't want range to fall all the way from 160 miles to 120 miles (even though this would still beat the Leaf by 20%). So now while cutting costs, we'd also like to increase range. So the next thing to do is cut the size and weight of the car. Cutting the size of the car will reduce the Area of the car leading to lower cdA and better highway range. Cutting the weight of the car will improve city range.
Vehicle // Height // Track // Wheelbase // Length // Curb Weight
Model S // 56.5" // 65.4" // 116.5" // 195.9" // 3,825# (40 kWh)
BlueStar* // <56" // <60" // <104" // <174" // ~3,300#
* my projections
328i // 55.9" // 59.1" // 106.7" // 178.2" // 3,428#
CT200h // 56.7" // 60" // 102.4" // 170.1" // 3,146#
Prius // 58.7" // 60" // 106.3" // 175.6" // 3,042#
Leaf // 61" // 60.6" // 106.3" // 175" // 3,354#
Volt // 56.6" // 61.2" // 105.7" // 177.1" // 3,781#
Porsche 911 // 51.3" // 60.6" // 96.5" // 176.8" // 3,086#
Roadster** // 44.4" // 58.7" // 95.1" // 155.1" // 2,723#
**current version
With regard to each of these numbers I think:
Height-wise the Model S has good headroom (Franz the designer is 6'5") for being a relatively low-slung car. I would expect the BlueStar to be shorter than the Model S (even though the Leaf is like 61" tall) because that would reduce frontal Area.
Track and Wheelbase (the rectangle between the four tires) impacts the size of the battery. Bear in mind this "skateboard" has to serve as the platform for the Model R (Roadster / Reimagined / Racing). Track would be 59"-60" - can't see it being narrower than this for (1) passenger comfort and Model R performance. Wheelbase will probably be closer to the Lexus CT200H rather than the rest of the competition, so between 102" and 106". And the Length of the car will be substantially shorter again, so between 170" and 176".
Shrinking these dimensions is necessary to reduce costs and trim weight. The vehicle will be smaller than a 3-series but can make up for that with a greater occupant area. By necessity BlueStar will be more of a "cab forward" design (like the Prius) where the windshield extends to the front axle and the rear windshield / hatchback also is a slope. I expect the back of the vehicle to look like a cross between the Lexus CT200h and the Prius. You don't want the back of the car to end in a tall hatchback because that will create drag.
BlueStar needs to look like a futuristic fluidic "bubble" (I have no doubt Franz will make it good-looking) for two reasons (1) to keep the passenger area large enough and (2) to keep drag low enough. Tesla has stated that the Model S needed to look like a traditional ICE car but that future models would look less like traditional ICE cars and more futuristic.
Cutting the dimensions will cut substantial costs for sure but a lot of the systems have to be similar in size and price regardless of the size of the car (still need two front seats, still need HVAC, etc). So I would expect that to save costs Tesla would have to reduce the number of features and options that BlueStar carries. Those fancy door handles will be gone for sure. The 17" screen will be cut in half. High quality interior trim materials will become an option package rather than standard. All the remaining cost cost have to come here.
So when all is said and done I think you end up with 3 models:
30 kWh 130-150 mile range $34,900 = base model
45 kWh 195-225 mile range $44,900 = bigger battery + substantial upgrades to make it nicer
60 kWh 260-300 mile range $54,900 = biggest battery + fit and finish of a nicely equipped Model S
For performance you will have two choices
Model R 60 kWh 260-300 mile range $99,000 0-60 in 3.4 seconds
Model R-SS $119,000 0-60 in 2.9 seconds.
Model R will be a 2+2 (where rear seats have LATCH connectors for car seats like a 911) hence no longer a pure Roadster and will be AWD with 2 motors allowing them to get the 0-60 times down. It will have a low slung height and will be a GTR killer.
Boy it is fun to speculate!
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