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Blue Origin: Future Plans

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SpaceX failed at recovering their cargo capsule when CSR-7 failed simply because they hadn't programmed the capsule to go through the landing procedure should it encounter an anomaly and find itself separated from the booster. So BO has that one over SpaceX. SpaceX did learn some good lessons from that mistake and their new cargo system should attempt a proper water landing if an anomaly occurs..


I'm not sure what you are saying BO has over SpaceX... Crew Dragon has proven in-flight abort capability and CRS-7 was almost 8 years ago (two months after the first NS flight).

"Simply because they hadn't programmed"? Sure, at 4700 kph at 45 km altitude CRS-7 was theoretically recoverable. However, a Dragon with trunk suddenly alone in the atmosphere is a tad different to plan for than a New Sheppard capsule which started with an abort system and has no second stage nor reconfiguration beyond first stage staging. Not to mention the risk assessment of implementing such a feature (loss of mission) versus the occurrence of it being needed (once to date for F9).

"to go through the landing procedure"
The landing procedure is to have 3,000kg less mass and no trunk before entering the atmosphere heat sheild first. I guess if the attitude had allowed for radio communications, SpaceX could have manually released the trunk (if that was possible) and sequenced the chutes...

"from that mistake"
Mistake? It was not a specified operating mode. No cargo rocket had had such a feature. It's not like NASA had required it and someone screwed up a line of code. It wasn't specified to do that.
 
A reasonable rant. I just wanted to give credit where it was due. We often take shots at BO since they still haven't gotten to orbit yet. In this instance though, they successfully recovered the payload and capsule from a failing booster. Which SpaceX did fail to do when it happened to them. SpaceX learned important lessons from that and, there is no doubt in my mind, they are a better company recovering from their failures. The incredible numbers prove that: As of today, SpaceX's 188th successful orbital launch within the Falcon program in a row and the 107th landing of a Falcon booster in a row since their last failures.
 
A reasonable rant. I just wanted to give credit where it was due. We often take shots at BO since they still haven't gotten to orbit yet. In this instance though, they successfully recovered the payload and capsule from a failing booster. Which SpaceX did fail to do when it happened to them. SpaceX learned important lessons from that and, there is no doubt in my mind, they are a better company recovering from their failures. The incredible numbers prove that: As of today, SpaceX's 188th successful orbital launch within the Falcon program in a row and the 107th landing of a Falcon booster in a row since their last failures.
That... is true...
But here's... my issue...
(Did that sound like Shatner?)
Ignoring the difference in mission profiles:
SpaceX lost the cargo from a cargo rated capsule.
Blue recovered the cargo from a human rated capsule.
Both providers have launch systems with full abort capability.

To the booster's defense (in these days of reuse), NS23 was the 9th flight of the N3 booster. It was a technology leader and only intended for cargo missions. The BE-3 engine was the failure point.
 
I'm glad BO was able to determine what the issues were. Kudos to them. I hope the redesigns are successful... I want to see those suckers fly.

I find it amazing that such root cause analysis is possible with rockets that have blown to smithereens and only the scantest of physical evidence recovered....
 
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So... I noticed this quote from the article @Grendal posted:

During a panel at the Satellite 2023 conference March 15, Tory Bruno, chief executive of ULA, said he was still confident that Vulcan would be ready for launch in May, based on tests on the pad and qualification tests of the vehicle’s BE-4 engines.

Yet on BO's page for the BE-4, it says:

1679751187798.png


Yet 6 months ago they shipped a pair to ULA, saying:

...shipping the engines to ULA’s factory in Decatur, AL after final acceptance testing.

Dozens of these engines are now in production...

...Development of this new engine is complete...

These things seem at odds....
 
They uses term "structural fatigue" that means many cycles of thermal or other stresses? (-> Multiple flights or engine firings) If upgrade was only in this flight, they would said something like "thermal deformation" or "temperature exceeded tolerances". Can any structure or material engineer confirm this?
 
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They uses term "structural fatigue" that means many cycles of thermal or other stresses? (-> Multiple flights or engine firings) If upgrade was only in this flight, they would said something like "thermal deformation" or "temperature exceeded tolerances". Can any structure or material engineer confirm this?
Interesting you say that... I had a similar thought. "Fatigue" implies something over some duration... but I wondered if that duration did not necessarily have to span more than one flight...
 
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I believe the article said that BO had upgraded/improved their engine in some way which increased the heat and allowed for the burn through.
Yeah, sounds that way:
"The MIT determined that design changes made to the engine’s boundary layer cooling system accounted for an increase in nozzle heating and explained the hot streaks present."

They uses term "structural fatigue" that means many cycles of thermal or other stresses? (-> Multiple flights or engine firings) If upgrade was only in this flight, they would said something like "thermal deformation" or "temperature exceeded tolerances". Can any structure or material engineer confirm this?
It's low cycles of operation, but the nozzle experiences high levels of acoustic/ pressure variation/ oscillation in use (especially if throttling), so a single mission could have fatigue vs ordinary overload.
From Wikipedia: "Low-cycle fatigue (loading that typically causes failure in less than 10^4 cycles) is associated with localized plastic behavior in metals; thus, a strain-based parameter should be used for fatigue life prediction in metals. Testing is conducted with constant strain amplitudes typically at 0.01–5 Hz."
Overtemp could lead to plastic deformation.

Aided by onboard video and telemetry, flight hardware recovered from the field, and the work of Blue Origin’s materials labs and test facilities, the MIT determined the direct cause of the mishap to be a structural fatigue failure of the BE-3PM engine nozzle during powered flight. The structural fatigue was caused by operational temperatures that exceeded the expected and analyzed values of the nozzle material. Testing of the BE-3PM engine began immediately following the mishap and established that the flight configuration of the nozzle operated at hotter temperatures than previous design configurations. Forensic evaluation of the recovered nozzle fragments also showed clear evidence of thermal damage and hot streaks resulting from increased operating temperatures. The fatigue location on the flight nozzle is aligned with a persistent hot streak identified during the investigation.

Look like only one flight. BE-3PM qualified in late March 2022. Only 3 launches occured after that, two crewed on NS4 (first too soon to be it), and one cargo on NS3. Given engineering status, NS23 was likely the first flight.
 
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Note the words “full rate production”. I think the BE-4 web page is simply saying that BO is ramping up engine production to the planned “full rate”, whatever that may be.

Or the web page is just out of date.
Yeah, that interpretation occurred to me as well, but that BE-4 page, in the body of the paragraph I pasted, says right after that: "BE-4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine development testing..." which tends to imply they aren't simply moving production towards full-rate, but rather moving towards production.


Also, regarding testing, NASA states:

Qualification tests follow and are conducted on flight-quality hardware at load levels and for durations that usually exceed flight conditions to demonstrate that all structural design requirements have been achieved. Acceptance tests are the final series of tests conducted in a typical hardware program.
1679834523315.png

So my next question is does one actually launch with engines that have gone through qualification testing? Ostensibly they have exceeded flight conditions.... but not necessarily engine specifications? Table seems to make a distinction between "Flight Quality" and "Flight" hardware,

Bruno says the 2 delivered to ULA are going through Quality Testing, yet he had said they were only going to be shipped after final acceptance testing... implying that acceptance testing happened at BO's facilities... perhaps in conjunction with ULA personnel? Does a customer do both types of testing as well?

Something seems odd about how these are being presented.
 

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Yeah, that interpretation occurred to me as well, but that BE-4 page, in the body of the paragraph I pasted, says right after that: "BE-4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine development testing..." which tends to imply they aren't simply moving production towards full-rate, but rather moving towards production.


Also, regarding testing, NASA states:



So my next question is does one actually launch with engines that have gone through qualification testing? Ostensibly they have exceeded flight conditions.... but not necessarily engine specifications? Table seems to make a distinction between "Flight Quality" and "Flight" hardware,

Bruno says the 2 delivered to ULA are going through Quality Testing, yet he had said they were only going to be shipped after final acceptance testing... implying that acceptance testing happened at BO's facilities... perhaps in conjunction with ULA personnel? Does a customer do both types of testing as well?

Something seems odd about how these are being presented.
From other posts on the web (and my vague recollection) :
BO shipped ULA engines that had undergone acceptance testing. In parallel, BO performed qualification testing on separate units. Assuming the QT passed without engine mods, ULA's engines were good to go.
 
From other posts on the web (and my vague recollection) :
BO shipped ULA engines that had undergone acceptance testing. In parallel, BO performed qualification testing on separate units. Assuming the QT passed without engine mods, ULA's engines were good to go.
So it seems, that while there may be some overlap, Qualification Testing is a phase that completes prior to Acceptance Testing:

1679846011655.png


So the pair that shipped to ULA, if they had already undergone acceptance testing, that implies qualifications testing completed prior right?

I guess the question becomes: are Qualification and Acceptance testing done for each article? Or is the design Qualification tested and then individual units are each accptance tested?

Otherwise from your twitter link that the engines ULA had did not undergo qualification testing, and were shipped to ULA to test/accept. Which if the qualification step is only for the program, might make sense...
 
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So it seems, that while there may be some overlap, Qualification Testing is a phase that completes prior to Acceptance Testing:

View attachment 921560

So the pair that shipped to ULA, if they had already undergone acceptance testing, that implies qualifications testing completed prior right?

I guess the question becomes: are Qualification and Acceptance testing done for each article? Or is the design Qualification tested and then individual units are each accptance tested?

Otherwise from your twitter link that the engines ULA had did not undergo qualification testing, and were shipped to ULA to test/accept. Which if the qualification step is only for the program, might make sense...
Right, that's a program timeline, not a per-engine testing regiment.
Normally, the engine family gets qualification tested to validate the design. After that, individual units get acceptance tested to validate manufacturing/ their build out.
In the case of ULA's engines, they accelerated timing by doing acceptance testing and shipping those engines, then they performed the qualification testing. Assuming qual passed, there is no difference from the normal flow. If qual had failed, it would gave invalidated the acceptance testing and the engines would have been reworked and retested.
 
Right, that's a program timeline, not a per-engine testing regiment.
Normally, the engine family gets qualification tested to validate the design. After that, individual units get acceptance tested to validate manufacturing/ their build out.
In the case of ULA's engines, they accelerated timing by doing acceptance testing and shipping those engines, then they performed the qualification testing. Assuming qual passed, there is no difference from the normal flow. If qual had failed, it would gave invalidated the acceptance testing and the engines would have been reworked and retested.

Ok, thanks.. that validates what I thought must be the case.

Then in which case it moves back to BO's stating that "BE-4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine development " that's the strange statement about the engine status.
 
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Ok, thanks.. that validates what I thought must be the case.

Then in which case it moves back to BO's stating that "BE-4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine development " that's the strange statement about the engine status.
While I wouldn't rely on web pages for up to date details, as of Feb 23, BE-4 had NOT finished qualification testing.

So, "BE-4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine development testing at our facilities in Van Horn, Texas." is accurate.

 
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While I wouldn't rely on web pages for up to date details, as of Feb 23, BE-4 had NOT finished qualification testing.

So, "BE-4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine development testing at our facilities in Van Horn, Texas." is accurate.

So it's undergoing development testing, qualification testing, AND acceptance testing, simultaneously?