Better car/options for my $45K challenge

[Barklikeadog]

80

 

[chronopc]

Excellent reply, thank you. I see some things that would be nice, but nothing that upsets me. Interesting how the smooth power delivery of EV helps counter other NVH aspects of ICE comparisons in my mind. While it seems unlikely that I won't be able to justify that "I don't need that" for many creature comforts, I feel better about hearing of them and deciding that. If it starts to add up, then I need to reconsider. So far so good. I just don't know this segment well because I have never shopped here before

I think another way to ask the OP's question is what does the Model 3 offer that you can't get from a similar costing ICE.

For me never having to go to a dealership or mechanic again is a big one. I hate dropping my car off for an oil change and having them tell me I need so and so flushed. I also like knowing that I will never have to go get gas ever again. My plan is to have my Model 3 plugged in on a nightly basis and have 80% of range everyday as I leave my house. And as an added bonus, EV will be more environmentally friendly ICE.

 

[SageBrush]

I think another way to ask the OP's question is what does the Model 3 offer that you can't get from a similar costing ICE.

The car is substantially built with clean energy, and is fueled by my PV panels.
The money paid goes to Tesla
No more money to Big Oil or OPEC
No support for oil wars

This is a NO BRAINER

 

[pace]

I think ICE will be around longer than people expect.
It has taken tesla over a decade to get to a point of manufacturing a significant amount of autos... and that point is next year.
Startups that don't even exist right now will have to start producing millions of vehicles yearly to close the doors on major manufacturers.

Tens of millions of drivers currently are unable to have a car charger and that is unlikely to change anytime soon.

The average age of vehicles on the road: 12years. The 15 million ICE cars sold this year will still be on the road in 20 years.
A decade from now, maybe only 7 million cars sold will be ICE... those cars will then be on the roads for 20 years.

I know everyone here is giddy and celebrating the end of ICE vehicles, but they will still be around for decades.


I don't mean to sound like an enemy, I enjoy these discussions and like to play devil's advocate, but I read so many posts here and all I can
think about is the flying car. For the last 50 years... the flying car is almost here!!! Bye bye conventional auto!!

Have you read or watched any of Tony Seba's predictions on what will happen to ICEV? His theory basically goes like this:

1. Autonomy + Electricity enables self driving uber / Lyft in 2021 or 2022.
2. The cost per mile of autonomous fleets should be less than owning a gas vehicle, even one that's paid off.
3. A (relatively) small number of people will thus opt to use fleets instead of buying. 1 fleet car can take 4-5 cars off the road.
4. This will result in a glut of used cars, which will accelerate as people realize that their ICE cars are going to depreciate to 0.
5. This creates a death spiral for auto manufacturers who won't be ready for the shift.
6. Because the same number of vehicle miles can be driven with 70% fewer vehicles, production ramp should not be a bottleneck.

If his economics are right, fleet usage will make sense for a ton of people in the mid 2020s. And that will change everything if ti works.

 

[KarenRei]

I guess 6 years is a long time. In 2011, Leaf was next only to sliced bread.

One thing Nissan gets compared to others is - EV is the future and they want to sell EVs. They sold so many Leafs because they were committed to selling them.

BTW, are you the same Karen who used to post in Aptera forum ?

One and the same. My lack of Aptera is still a rather sore spot to me

BTW, did you see that Nissan just sold their battery business? Not a good sign...

 

[chronopc]

One and the same. My lack of Aptera is still a rather sore spot to me

BTW, did you see that Nissan just sold their battery business? Not a good sign...

I don't think it makes sense for everyone to be producing batteries. Think of the iPhone. Apple doesn't produce any of their components.

 

[roguenode]

rain sensing wipers

 

[EVNow]

One and the same. My lack of Aptera is still a rather sore spot to me

You suddenly disappeared and got some old timers worried.

BTW, did you see that Nissan just sold their battery business? Not a good sign...

Yes - I think the writing was on the wall once Ghosn said LG makes the best batteries. The fact that Nissan faced so much trouble with rapidly degrading batteries & that they couldn't improve their battery as fast as LG - would have certainly angered Ghosn.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Have you read or watched any of Tony Seba's predictions on what will happen to ICEV? His theory basically goes like this:

1. Autonomy + Electricity enables self driving uber / Lyft in 2021 or 2022.
2. The cost per mile of autonomous fleets should be less than owning a gas vehicle, even one that's paid off.
3. A (relatively) small number of people will thus opt to use fleets instead of buying. 1 fleet car can take 4-5 cars off the road.
4. This will result in a glut of used cars, which will accelerate as people realize that their ICE cars are going to depreciate to 0.
5. This creates a death spiral for auto manufacturers who won't be ready for the shift.
6. Because the same number of vehicle miles can be driven with 70% fewer vehicles, production ramp should not be a bottleneck.

If his economics are right, fleet usage will make sense for a ton of people in the mid 2020s. And that will change everything if ti works.

I always read articles about similar predictions. Seems like a new one comes out daily. I find a good rule of thumb is to add about 10+ years to these forecasts.
I am still waiting to buy that flying car from the 50s...er 60s...70s? 80s? 90s? 00s? 10s? Flying car any day now!!

 

[insaneoctane]

2. The cost per mile of autonomous fleets should be less than owning a gas vehicle, even one that's paid off.

What about an EV that's paid off? Can't be cheaper per mile there....

 

[pace]

What about an EV that's paid off? Can't be cheaper per mile there....

That's true.

 

[pace]

I always read articles about similar predictions. Seems like a new one comes out daily. I find a good rule of thumb is to add about 10+ years to these forecasts.
I am still waiting to buy that flying car from the 50s...er 60s...70s? 80s? 90s? 00s? 10s? Flying car any day now!!

For sure there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical. But LCD TVs replaced CRTs in about a decade time period and that was only driven by experience, not economics. Seba's argument is pretty reasonable to me - at some point people will realize that ICEV are not the way of the future and they'll do their best to not buy them. Those for whom it will be convenient will use autonomous fleets, which will reduce demand (and the economies of scale) for ICEV.

It's clearly dependent upon level five autonomy as the system doesn't work without it. Is that a few years away or a decade? That's a big question but I think its answer will have major economic consequences, both good and bad.

 

[alseTrick]

I think ICE will be around longer than people expect.
It has taken tesla over a decade to get to a point of manufacturing a significant amount of autos... and that point is next year.
Startups that don't even exist right now will have to start producing millions of vehicles yearly to close the doors on major manufacturers.

Tens of millions of drivers currently are unable to have a car charger and that is unlikely to change anytime soon.

The average age of vehicles on the road: 12years. The 15 million ICE cars sold this year will still be on the road in 20 years.
A decade from now, maybe only 7 million cars sold will be ICE... those cars will then be on the roads for 20 years.

I know everyone here is giddy and celebrating the end of ICE vehicles, but they will still be around for decades.


I don't mean to sound like an enemy, I enjoy these discussions and like to play devil's advocate, but I read so many posts here and all I can
think about is the flying car. For the last 50 years... the flying car is almost here!!! Bye bye conventional auto!!

A lot of people on this site have absurd expectations on numerous Tesla/EV related issues.

ICE will outsell EVs in the US for at least another decade or two, even in the most optimistic of pro-EV scenarios. Which means, zero chance ICE manufacturers disappear like BlackBerry did. EVs still lack the low cost, quick refueling and long range of many new ICE vehicles (not everyone owns a house!).

Not to mention, phones are a small fraction of the cost and complexity of cars. The challenges start up EV manufacturers face is enormous. Just look at Faraday Future nearly going belly-up and Lucid trying to sell to Ford. Even if ICE manufacturers continue to slowplay EVs, they've got the financial resources, car-building expertise, and manufacturing plant capital to right the ship...and/or buy out successful EV startups.

 

[KarenRei]

Given that Tesla has the market cap of a major automaker, I don't think it's fair to say that they have a "financial resources" advantage. More cash on hand, sure - but Tesla has a dozen ways to raise more cash at will; that's what having a high market valuation implies. People with experience can and are poached at will. And the Big Three's existing infrastructure is a disadvantage, not an advantage; it's a sunk cost in outdated tech and manufacturing approaches.

I don't buy the argument that they can just suddenly jump in and crush Tesla. Look at what happened with the Bolt. GM thought that was a Model 3 killer. They just don't understand the market.

That said, I agree with you about the timeframe for EV transition. I'm just glad that it looks more and more assured every day now.

 

[Barklikeadog]

A lot of people on this site have absurd expectations on numerous Tesla/EV related issues.

ICE will outsell EVs in the US for at least another decade or two, even in the most optimistic of pro-EV scenarios. Which means, zero chance ICE manufacturers disappear like BlackBerry did. EVs still lack the low cost, quick refueling and long range of many new ICE vehicles (not everyone owns a house!).

Not to mention, phones are a small fraction of the cost and complexity of cars. The challenges start up EV manufacturers face is enormous. Just look at Faraday Future nearly going belly-up and Lucid trying to sell to Ford. Even if ICE manufacturers continue to slowplay EVs, they've got the financial resources, car-building expertise, and manufacturing plant capital to right the ship...and/or buy out successful EV startups.

This.
The US has 250,000,000 registered autos avg age 12yrs.
How many will Tesla produce next year? 300,000?
Do we need to explain?

 

[tsla007]

I don't think it makes sense for everyone to be producing batteries. Think of the iPhone. Apple doesn't produce any of their components.

Which is why the darn thing is so expensive. Only Japan complete understood this 50 yrs ago. zaibatsu

 

[Barklikeadog]

Which is why the darn thing is so expensive. Only Japan complete understood this 50 yrs ago. zaibatsu

Its expensive because Apple has an obscene markup and the sheeple out there actually pay it.

 

[chronopc]

This.
The US has 250,000,000 registered autos avg age 12yrs.
How many will Tesla produce next year? 300,000?
Do we need to explain?

It's definitely going to take some time for EVs to outnumber ICE. It's not only going to be Tesla that is producing EVs though. With the success of Tesla all the major car manufacturers will get into EV.

 

[alseTrick]

Given that Tesla has the market cap of a major automaker, I don't think it's fair to say that they have a "financial resources" advantage. More cash on hand, sure - but Tesla has a dozen ways to raise more cash at will; that's what having a high market valuation implies. People with experience can and are poached at will. And the Big Three's existing infrastructure is a disadvantage, not an advantage; it's a sunk cost in outdated tech and manufacturing approaches.

I don't buy the argument that they can just suddenly jump in and crush Tesla. Look at what happened with the Bolt. GM thought that was a Model 3 killer. They just don't understand the market.

That said, I agree with you about the timeframe for EV transition. I'm just glad that it looks more and more assured every day now.

If you're replying to me, i don't think you understood my comment.