AXPW Investment Discussion

[smorgasbord]

Tesla had 10 years of continuous losses until they started the real production, what was your point again?

That's the best response you've got - a silly comparison to Tesla? Tesla went public two years after production of their first vehicle was underway. The Roadster production line was profitable. Axion went public in 2005 and stayed a Development Stage company for over 7 years. There's no comparison.

And you are counting it wrong...when you look to Axion batteries, you should divide the price by 20 to 50 per kWh (100,000 cycles).

You appear to be off by a couple of orders of magnitude. Axion itself only claims 2,000 cycles, which is still 4X better than regular lead-acid batteries, and on par with lithium.

BMW or any other car manufacturer will not introduce a new tech without torturous testing....

Who told you this? Petersen, I'll bet. You realize Axion's CEO recently admitted that BMW hasn't even entered fleet testing with Axion batteries yet, right?

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

You appear to be off by a couple of orders of magnitude. Axion itself only claims 2,000 cycles, which is still 4X better than regular lead-acid batteries, and on par with lithium.

Those are completely discharge cycles, read 100%. Broder your Model S 100 times and see what happens (all the time being aware that the electronics keep the cells safe above 5% charge).

 

[smorgasbord]

Nicu, you should look up the definition and application of the term "battery cycle life."

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Nicu, you should look up the definition and application of the term "battery cycle life."

By that definition, the Roadster battery pack has a cycle life of 1 - I should probably not write the b... word, as I'm afraid I would be banned for heresy.

Anyway, what is your point? That Axion is a losing bet? If you want it so hard, have it: you're right!

Have I told you or anyone else to buy AXPW? Nope. You have been accusing me of buying it (wtf?!!) and starting bogus threads, and when you saw you were wrong, you started attacking my investment instead of formulating some kind of apology.

Other people were curious and I have tried to explain what I think - heck, even on another site just to avoid that kind of mindless attacks.

 

[qwk]

Nicu, you should look up the definition and application of the term "battery cycle life."

Facts really do not matter to anyone who has personal assets at stake. To an outsider without an agenda, that has any battery technology knowledge, AXPW is a joke. Enough said.

 

[dsm363]

I'm not a financial expert by any means but would think any stock trading under a $1 is a risky investment. You either loose everything or make a ton of money. Peterson not only was skeptical of Tesla but outright trashed it and used his years of professional experience and knowledge to push people towards Axion. Regardless of how wonderful a technology they have, it is a risky investment.

 

[smorgasbord]

By that definition, the Roadster battery pack has a cycle life of 1

And which definition is that, that you found? You're obviously confused.

Considering the facts are all on my side, I find your accusation that I'm lashing out because you're proving me "wrong" laughable.

 

[JRP3]

Since I am a skeptical gambler, I mean investor, in AXPW, the potential benefit I see is the PbC can cycle much higher than lead acid, can charge at higher C rates than lead acid, and it does not suffer from sulfation when kept at lower than full SOC. If they can lower the production costs then there are potential applications that can take advantage of those characteristics. Lithium titanate chemistry is already as good if not better, but the cost is far higher, and the BMS may be cheaper with the PbC as well, though I'm not sure of that. Also cold weather performance of the PbC may be superior. LiFePO4 is also competitive, though again, the cost is still high and the cold weather performance may not be as good as the PbC. As I've said in the past I see a narrowing window where the PbC might grab some applications where current lithium chemistries aren't as cost effective. Or not.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

After a bit of investigation, 100k cycles that I have stated are for the specific application of micro-hybrids. But the discharge is small.

100% Depth of discharge (DoD) that is claimed on Axion's website is the harshest for this battery, and probably for most chemistries. If control electronics protect it like Tesla does from reaching 0% or 100% SoC, then the cycle life should be much better than 2500 but in the same time much lower than 100k, probably 5000 to 10,000. That would be enough for most applications. In 8 or more years things get replaced anyway (that would be the equivalent of 2 to 3 cycles per day - in 60 kWh Model S terms, that's about 1M to 2M miles).

I think I will stop posting on this thread, as attacks get personal. Time will tell if Axion will do fine or not.

---

By no means the comparison with Tesla's battery means there is some competition between the two. The entire Tesla car has more energy density than the PbC. It is just to provide some kind of perspective.

 

[qwk]

Since I am a skeptical gambler, I mean investor, in AXPW, the potential benefit I see is the PbC can cycle much higher than lead acid, can charge at higher C rates than lead acid, and it does not suffer from sulfation when kept at lower than full SOC. If they can lower the production costs then there are potential applications that can take advantage of those characteristics. Lithium titanate chemistry is already as good if not better, but the cost is far higher, and the BMS may be cheaper with the PbC as well, though I'm not sure of that. Also cold weather performance of the PbC may be superior. LiFePO4 is also competitive, though again, the cost is still high and the cold weather performance may not be as good as the PbC. As I've said in the past I see a narrowing window where the PbC might grab some applications where current lithium chemistries aren't as cost effective. Or not.

Yes, it's all about timing. The window is closing faster than most people think. AXPW is in a similar situation that Coda was in a few years ago. An inferior product at a lower value proposition, but still desireable because there is little competition. Once the Leaf came out, it was over.

 

[JRP3]

I think I will stop posting on this thread, as attacks get personal. Time will tell if Axion will do fine or not.

I can't say I see anything particularly attacking you personally. No one has called you a tin foil hat wearing hopium smoking EVangelical for example :wink:

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

I can't say I see anything particularly attacking you personally. No one has called you a tin foil hat wearing hopium smoking EVangelical for example :wink:

I did not say I'm fond of those attacks either. And I'm not immune of (not) attacking others if I'm bothered too much - but I think you know that already - so maybe it's just a way for me to take a bit of distance not to be too tempted

 

[smorgasbord]

I think I will stop posting on this thread, as attacks get personal.

There's nothing personal about pointing out that you still haven't groked what a "cycle" is when talking about "battery cycle life." Or that not even Petersen himself claims Axion batteries have a cycle life more than 2000. Or that you're apparently getting your information on BMW testing procedures from Petersen's blogs. Or that any number of things you've posted about Axion and Tesla are, in fact, wrong.

In fact, you're even wrong about being personally attacked here.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

There's nothing personal about pointing out that you still haven't groked what a "cycle" is when talking about "battery cycle life." Or that not even Petersen himself claims Axion batteries have a cycle life more than 2000. Or that you're apparently getting your information on BMW testing procedures from Petersen's blogs. Or that any number of things you've posted about Axion and Tesla are, in fact, wrong.

In fact, you're even wrong about being personally attacked here.

It turns out that I was indeed wrong about the 100,000 cycles by at least a factor of 10. While I do not like the way you communicate, I must thank you for your insistence for pushing me to dig deeper. And while I got some links via Petersen's articles, those are not data that he produced himself. Example (look at page 23 for the micro-hybrid application):
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/26257506/9.27.12 Axion ELBC.pdf

This presentation has been done by Axion's R&D head at ELBC last september.

PbC is not the wonder battery that will solve world's problems. But it has unique strengths which fit quite well to some applications.

When, and if, Tesla will sell $500 / kWh battery packs (range of sizes / capacities) warranted for 2000 cycles or more with enough supply (equivalent of 400k miles warranty for the 60 kWh pack, which applies to battery degradation too, not only manufacturing faults - so they need at least a factor of 3, which looks easy, but it's not), Axion will have a problem. Until then, all other offers seem either too expensive or not durable enough or too temperature sensitive.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

In fact, you're even wrong about being personally attacked here.

How should I interpret that then ?
"Anyway, sounds like you've sold your Tesla. Speaking of Capital Raises needed, rumor is you've moved the profits into Axion."

 

[JRP3]

I don't see that as a personal attack in any way. Maybe you have a different interpretation of what a personal attack is.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

I don't see that as a personal attack in any way. Maybe you have a different interpretation of what a personal attack is.

Maybe you haven't seen the other thread smorgasbord is talking about. I doubt there is no link - I would like him to tell me was the implication.

 

[smorgasbord]

When, and if, Tesla will sell $500 / kWh battery packs (range of sizes / capacities) warranted for 2000 cycles or more with enough supply (equivalent of 400k miles warranty for the 60 kWh pack, which applies to battery degradation too, not only manufacturing faults - so they need at least a factor of 3, which looks easy, but it's not), Axion will have a problem.

Axion has a problem. Actually, multiple problems. Finding someone to actually commit to using their batteries in something other that a prototype or test is the first obvious one that comes to mind. Having enough cash to make it through the month (5 days now) is another. Competition from Tesla is not one of them.


But, you still haven't addressed my question from where you're getting your BMW "torture testing" information, if not Petersen's blogs. How long did BMW test the lithium batteries before putting them in their ActiveHybrid 3 model? And now the ActiveHybrid 5 and ActiveHybrid 7? How long did Buick test the lithium battery used in its "EAssist" micro-hybrid LaCrosse, delivered as a 2012 and now 2013 model? That Axion's battery hasn't even made to BMW's fleet testing stage makes one wonder what's really going on. Why is BMW moving so slowly on this when apparently it's willing to move more quickly with lithium based batteries?

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

dollars returned for dollar invested from a driver's point of view is different than that of an investor's. that is why market success and stock success are not necessarily correlated. example: nokia vs apple.

That is about the other thing I keep saying. Tesla makes great cars and are just like the iPhone. Please take a quick look at my Tesla / Apple comparisons I wrote as articles on SA last year. Premium consumers will pay premium prices (therefore great GM for the manufacturer) for premium products.

When I was talking about the return on investment, I was talking about utilities and car manufacturers themselves (as opposed to the car buyer). The end customer may pass paying $300 to get $1100 back in 5 years. An accountant at an utility firm won't. When the fine is $500 and the price of the tech is $450, be sure that tech will make it into cars without skipping a beat.

I keep repeating Tesla and Axion are not in any kind of competition. Tech is at opposites sides of the spectrum, its uses too, the types of clients are completely different and so are investment needs and manufacturing constrains.

 

[luvb2b]

I think one normal size PbC battery will not be over 0.5 kWh (it is even less energy dense that the dinosaur lead-acid). And by the estimates I have seen (if anyone has better info, please provide a link), it saves 5-10% of gas in average. Let that be 5%. Over 8 years (the life of that PbC, not the car), 30 mpg, 12 000 miles / year, that means 160 gallons, or 320 gallons per kWh.

Now, the 60 kWh is warranted for 125 000 miles (that amounts to almost 10.5 years in the previous computation). It means it saves 4167 gallons of gas at 30 mpg, or 69.5 gallons saved / kWh.

reading your posts it seems like the enemy has brainwashed you during your time with him.

to save that 160 gallons of gas in your first example you have to consume 3,040 gallons of gas. so if you believe there are unpriced externalities in gasoline consumption, start-stop doesn't really help much.

that's not to say start stop isn't helpful or viable. it is.

but with motor vehicles on the road growing by almost 5% annually, all start stop can do is set us back a bit. it can't really make a large dent in gasoline consumption beyond the 5%. getting 10-20% of vehicles running electric can make a difference.

one of the founding principles of tesla was that unpriced externalities in oil consumption are unimaginably expensive. some of us agree with that, and some of us agree with peterson.

- - - Updated - - -

When I was talking about the return on investment, I was talking about utilities and car manufacturers themselves (as opposed to the car buyer). The end customer may pass paying $300 to get $1100 back in 5 years. An accountant at an utility firm won't. When the fine is $500 and the price of the tech is $450, be sure that tech will make it into cars without skipping a beat.

so now we are talking about utilities and car manufacturers? before you specifically said "success of the stock":

"There is no better correlation to the market success of the product and therefore of the stock you are considering."

twist your meaning as you wish, we are still in the investor forum here. if you want to push a low margin commodity technology as having abnormally high investment returns because it will have a high adoption rate, my suggestion is put your money where your mouth is and go buy exide while it is "at a discount."

- - - Updated - - -

other readers should note the word utilities or utility was not previously mentioned in the discussion.