Lasairfion
Member
SAE does mention steering wheel and it is widely accepted that Level 5 is when that can come off, it is the whole hands off (Level 2), eyes off (Level 3), mind off (Level 4), steering wheel off (Level 5) mantra after all, though that part is unofficial of course. SAE does mention it may be removed for specific applications on Level 4, but what Tesla here is picturing a Model 3 being sold without any steering wheel as a consumer car and that can obviously be only Level 5.
I'm not sure that they couldn't get away with Level 4 since I doubt many people will take their Model 3 off roading on autopilot. But I agree that Tesla has made it obvious that they're shooting for Level 5.
What the Tesla narrative completely misses abour Lidar and HD maps though (another surprise from Elon that people using HD maps are doomed like those using Lidar) is that they are not something to be relied on but something to provide you with an additional layer of redundancy.
It is more obvious by the day that Tesla is aiming for the easiest way of producting a self-driving car and as something becomes too costly or too difficult (like relying on radar in the winter or the more complex NoA they had prior to the current one — that we assumed used HD maps), Elon just discards it and goes for the path of least resistance. Redundancy is hard so he goes for vision only, even on record saying so about their own forward radar, and forgets about using HD maps. Sensor and data fusion IS hard, of that I have no doubt. But the layer of sanity checking and double checking it can offer for safety can and likely will mean ”orders of magnitude” safer autonomous vehicles (and driver’s aids).
Because the thing about HD maps (constantly updated through the fleet of course like MobilEye EyeQ4) or 360 degree radar of 360 degree Lidar, when done right, is not that they limit you anywhere. It is that they provide the car with a second or third opinion when they are available. Say your vision gets blocked or severely diminished and you need to navigate to a safe space. Having secondary sensors and HD maps certainly help plotting a better course than basically nothing but a memory of what you last saw.
As with any redundant system, it needs the weigh every piece of data and come to the best possible conclusion. With a non-redundant system, you only have one possible conclusion, but that conclusion may be worse than a redundant system would have made. The latter makes for an easier system to implement, which is why I wager it is so inviting to Elon, but how safe it ends up being remains to be seen.
That said, what concerns me more at this time is not redundancy but Tesla getting their vision reliability and versatility on par with MobilEye. Their biggest issue at the moment is unreliable vision, not lack of redundancy... but looking forward redundancy may matter too as this, the Model 3 sold today, is the suite and fleet Tesla aims to start using to Tesla Network as the leases end.
I think that Elon's point is that those companies relying primarily on GPS, Maps or Lidar are doomed. I don't think he intentionally means to poke fun at say MobilEye who obviously are a 'vision first' autonomy developer. But he is poking fun at the ones who aren't.
Like with the cars themselves, I don't think he wants to be the only player in the game. He's hoping other companies will take up the torch and provide a variety of options (to different market segments than Tesla). The one place he is looking to be the number one though is autonomous ride sharing, and mostly by getting there first.
I don't disagree that Lidar and Maps can be used for redundancy. But I think the key here is cost and speed. We all know how laughably outdated SatNavs can be, and Google Maps isn't always on spot either. Using maps is a huge expense with constant additional costs for updates. I can see why Tesla doesn't want to tie into some additional subscription route for a product that's out of date as soon as it's compiled.
We know Lidar is expensive. I expect if they become $10 a piece then we'll see them added to Teslas. It would be a no-brainer to have that sort of redundancy. I just don't think it's a right fit, right now for them. It wouldn't surprise me if Hardware 4, in 2 years, has the option to plug one in. But I do think that Elon's point stands: you have to get the vision right first.
Tesla's whole gig is to run as fast as it can to keep ahead of the companies who otherwise, with their massive cash reserves, would crush them. I think that's a major reason why the huge, super-fast, push to get the cheapest generalised version of autonomy working and out there as soon as possible.
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