Autonomous Car Progress

[Cheburashka]

Making unfulfilled promises is nothing new with Elon. According to past statements, we're supposed to be at L5 already. Sure, the re-write is looking promising and I can't wait to see what's around the corner, but at the same time, knowing what I know now about L5 and its requirements, I've tamed my expectations to match reality.

Yeah exactly, I hate to repeat the 3 months maybe 6 months definitely thing but wasn't that back in 2017?

"Definitely" hasn't really changed much.

It's nice to hear that Tesla is making progress on perception but it's only a piece of the puzzle when it comes to L5.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Waymo is available to the public.

I went to Early Rider Program – Waymo
Which made me install the app "Waymo One"
I installed it an launched it... greeted with the following...
No, that is not available to the public, unless by "public" you really mean a pre-approved list of ppl that Google/Waymo deems worthy of a ride on their platform.

 

[Mardak]

Tesla does not seem to be doing a lot of work with planning and driving policy which is a huge part of autonomous driving.

Elon Musk has said that the rewrite is combining planning, perception and image recognition instead of handling them separately. Here's a screenshot of Autopilot path prediction from autonomy day before the rewrite:

Although yes, we haven't seen it as an output of birds-eye-view network, and even the network output shown on the recent Autopilot hiring page seems to be the old main-camera focused unable to predict a reasonable path (green lines pointing at the building) if the full lane (red lines) isn't in view:

 

[Soda Popinski]

That's not available to anyone. great!

As you mentioned, it's available to people in the Early Access Rider program. It may not be the general public, but they are people who are in the public, and not Waymo employees.

It's like Tesla's Early Access Program.

Elon Musk has said that the rewrite is combining planning, perception and image recognition instead of handling them separately.

From the Karpathy talks, it seemed to me this may be an eventual "black box" method, but it's not what they're working on now.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Early Access Program.

EAP is of no use to me and does not qualify as "available to the public".

 

[Soda Popinski]

EAP is of no use to me and does not qualify as "available to the public".

So if it's not available to you, it's not available to anyone?

At least with EAP, we get a lot of leaks. I remember being wowed by Advanced Summon before it rolled out to everyone.

 

[diplomat33]

I went to Early Rider Program – Waymo
Which made me install the app "Waymo One"
I installed it an launched it... greeted with the following...
No, that is not available to the public, unless by "public" you really mean a pre-approved list of ppl that Google/Waymo deems worthy of a ride on their platform.
View attachment 562485

No. Waymo also has a "Waymo One" program that is different than Early Access. Waymo One is open to the public.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Waymo One is open to the public.

No it is not. Their Early Rider program just points to Waymo One.
My screenshot, is from the Waymo One app.
Please go try it for yourself.

 

[Cheburashka]

Waymo One and Early Access are the same thing I think

 

[mikes_fsd]

So if it's not available to you, it's not available to anyone?

If you want to put in those terms, then I am part of the "public", so if it is not available to the general public, it is not available to me.

Here is the same list of criteria that I apply to all FSD providers. At one point @diplomat33 agreed to this set of criteria.

FSD has to be available:

• Anywhere
• Anytime
• to anyone (i.e. no pre-approval or other bureaucracy)

 

[diplomat33]

No it is not. Their Early Rider program just points to Waymo One.
My screenshot, is from the Waymo One app.
Please go try it for yourself.

Waymo One and Early Access are the same thing I think

I believe they are different.

"Since April 2017, the Early Riders have been testing the company’s autonomous vehicles for trips to work, school, and various errands. Some of these people will now migrate to Waymo One, while others will stay in the Early Rider program. Those who move to Waymo One will continue to use the company’s self-driving Chrysler Pacifica minivans in much the same way they did while in the Early Rider program — except now they will be charged for the rides."
I rode in Waymo’s new self-driving taxi service

"Riders will first be invited to join the Waymo early rider program, which requires signing a non-disclosure agreement, before moving into the public arm of Waymo One. Once on Waymo One, participants can invite guests and talk publicly about their experience."
Waymo robotaxi app arrives on the App Store – TechCrunch

 

[mikes_fsd]

Well, there is no way to join the Early Rider program any more.
There is only Waymo One and the app is available to anyone.
It will not be the first time a news article got something wrong.

The app is available for both iPhone and Android, so there should not be an issue trying it out.
But the only difference I see between Waymo One and Early Rider is the NDA requirement, you still have to be pre-approved to be allowed to use the service.

 

[diplomat33]

Here is the same list of criteria that I apply to all FSD providers. At one point @diplomat33 agreed to this set of criteria.

I still agree with that criteria for "FSD".

The fact is that Waymo does offer self-driving rides. It's not "FSD" per your definition, but the cars are still self-driving. You just don't count anything unless it is "FSD" because you are only interested in self-driving that is available to anyone, anytime, anyone.

 

[mikes_fsd]

You just don't count anything unless it is "FSD" because you are only interested in self-driving that is available anywhere, anytime, anyone.

I don't agree that Waymo is providing FSD because they haven't even hit one of the 3 criteria.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't agree that Waymo is providing FSD because they haven't even hit one of the 3 criteria.

Why are you pretending like I am saying something different? I just said that Waymo does not meet your definition of "FSD". So no, Waymo is not "FSD" per you definition. But the Waymo cars are self-driving.

 

[mikes_fsd]

But the Waymo cars are self-driving.

Well, by that definition, my AP1 Model X is self-driving*

* on highways below 90mph.

It is useful to have concrete definitions, otherwise AP1 would satisfy 2 of the 3 criteria - anytime and anyone...

 

[diplomat33]

Well, by that definition, my AP1 Model X is self-driving*

* on highways below 90mph.

It is useful to have concrete definitions, because AP1 would satisfy 2 of the 3 criteria - anytime and anyone...

This is why we really should not use terms like self-driving or full self-driving. You are giving me bad habits.

Yes, we should use concrete definitions. Luckily, the SAE already provides us with some.

SAE defines autonomous driving or L3+ (colloquially referred to sometimes as "self-driving") as a system that can perform all the driving tasks, perceive and respond to everything in the environment. Hence, a L3+ system is able to be responsible for all the driving, not the human. L3 of course may ask for the human to intervene. L4 and L5 never ask the human to intervene. Waymo is L4. What you call "FSD" is L5.

 

[diplomat33]

ELon's timing has been off but getting better lately. HE has always come through on the project he tackled. It might be a bit late but he does come through.

What is astounding is some of the remarks here. There are hundreds of people working on FSD at Tesla for years. Elon had devoted most of his time on FSD whilhin Tesla. And here are some people remarking: "Oh yeah, what about roundabouts or uncontrolled left turns.."
I mean do you really think someone comes at the FSD office this Thursday morning: "Heh guys, I have been reading this thread and it occurred to me we never thought of uncontrolled left turns - we really start working on that.." And then another guy at coffee machine "what about roundabouts....shoot forgot about that - better start programming"
Come on!

That's because L5 means the car can drive everywhere, anytime. So if you are going to say that your system is almost L5, don't be surprised if people ask about situations that your system can't handle yet.

IMO, Elon would be better off sticking to his previous "feature complete" comment where he said "the car can drive a common commute with minimal interventions" and then add "we will work to solve long tail problems so that the system can handle more complex driving problems as time goes on". I'd be super fine with that. But when you promise L5, there is an understood definition of what that means.

 

[Dutchie]

Making unfulfilled promises is nothing new with Elon. According to past statements, we're supposed to be at L5 already. Sure, the re-write is looking promising and I can't wait to see what's around the corner, but at the same time, knowing what I know now about L5 and its requirements, I've tamed my expectations to match reality.

Somehow my message was deleted

What I wanted to say is that Elon's timing may be off but at the end he always delivers

What is astounding to me is that there are hundreds of people working at Tesla on FSD. Elon's time at Tesla is mostly devoted to FSD. And here you find remarks like:" Oh yeah, what about roundabouts or what about uncontrolled left turns?"

I mean guys really, do you really think that someone came into the office this morning and says: "Heh, I was reading this blog and it occurred to me we never thought of uncontrolled left turns. We better start working" or the lady at the coffee machine says: "what about roundabouts....shoot, better start programming". Come on!

 

[Dutchie]

That's because L5 means the car can drive everywhere, anytime. So if you are going to say that your system is almost L5, don't be surprised if people ask about situations that your system can't handle yet.

IMO, Elon would be better off sticking to his previous "feature complete" comment where he said "the car can drive a common commute with minimal interventions" and then add "we will work to solve long tail problems so that the system can handle more complex driving problems as time goes on". I'd be super fine with that. But when you promise L5, there is an understood definition of what that means.

And you doubt his interpretation. You really think he doesn't know what L5 means? He showed cars last year without steering wheel. L5 has been the objective al along and uncontrolled left turns and roundabouts are pretty basic stuff. Perhaps there might be an issue with falling ash due to a vulcano eruption that needs to be addressed that is why he says almost L5.