diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Just chance unit from mile to meter and you can add three nines.
Imo it's just a figure of speech, probably based on six sigma.
Six Sigma is a set of methodologies and tools used to improve business processes by reducing defects and errors, minimizing variation, and increasing quality and efficiency. The goal of Six Sigma is to achieve a level of quality that is nearly perfect, with only 3.4 defects per million opportunities.
Fair point.
Imo Tesla has the right question being asked, because they have actually thought through it. Basically
1. Be safer than the average human -> you can argue that FSD should be allowed, ie it makes the streets safer
2. Be ~10x safer than the average human -> at this point it's get hard to argue that FSD should not be allowed, you can start to prove it is significant safer than the average human
3. Be safer than all humans -> now it's impossible to argue that FSD should not be allowed
Except that it is very vague. That is not a safety methodology. It is an outline of goals at best. Tesla has not clearly defined what safer than the average human means. What metric are they using to define that? Is if 100k miles per intervention? What? And Tesla has not shared any official data on the safety of FSD if unsupervised so we don't know close Tesla FSD is to achieving these goals. Now Tesla does share accident rates but that is FSD supervised. At best, they make an argument that FSD supervised is safer than average human and should be allowed. That's great. But that is supervised. It does not tell us if or when FSD (Supervised) can become eyes off.
Mobileye has at least given us very specific MTBF numbers based on human safety metrics where they say they can go eyes off when they achieve that MTBF.