I think both, but it definitely grew the market. I would never have bought any of the other cars mentioned.
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
I believe the correct answer is "Yes".
We've seen plenty of threads here with people talking about how they wouldn't otherwise be buying in this segment except for the Model S. We've also heard from people who switched.
I also believe that the dominant behavior is market expansive (people buying Model S that wouldn't otherwise buy in this segment) rather than substitutive. To really see this dynamic well, you'd want to look at the competitive offerings and their units or $$ demand/delivery year by year for as many years back as you can get, so you can assess the degree to which they are growing or shrinking. The difficulty with this analysis is assessing what their volume would have been if Model S didn't exist, but you can at least start getting an answer.
I agree. The Superchargers swayed me to Tesla. Nobody else is building out a fast charging network.
bjwModelS
Member
Agreed. I would have never spent the money on a 7 series (or 7), A8, etc. But the Tesla I can get behind, from the company to the mission to the environmental aspect. That's why I came up from a Kia Optima to the Model S. I would have never traded my Kia for a 3/5/7 series, Mercedes, Porsche, etc. even though I could have.
So one day the Heavens opened unto me and a Roadster appeared, followed closely by an MS, illuminated brightly by golden beams of sunshine. After the chorus of angels quieted down a voice began: "Ok, God here. You inquired about long-distance battery powered cars? Here, have fun!"
So this would be Market Expansion, right??
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So this would be Market Expansion, right??
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
Hugh Mannity
Mediocre Member
hah interesting, exactly what i am doing, going from an older Sonata to the model X and like you would have never considered a fancy car as a replacement, its all about the environmental aspect and supporting where tesla is going
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
There was a survey a while back that showed the single most common model traded up from (not necessarily traded in) was a Prius. And it makes a lot of sense to me. Part of the impetus for Tesla Motors in the first place (I believe) was that Eberhard and Tarpenning were walking around their neighborhood and noticed how many driveways had both a high end luxury/sports car and a Prius. It showed them that there was an unfulfilled market for performance/luxury EVs, and Tesla's success has proven them right.
That was exactly the situation at my house before we sold our ICEs and bought Teslas.
For me, buying the MS was definitely market expansion. I would never have considered buying a $95 K car new. When we bought in the luxury sedan range, it was with 150,000 plus miles on the car. We have only purchased 2 car models new: a Renault Alliance in the 80's and a Geo Metro for fuel efficiency. We also use public transit and bike commuting. Tesla Model S is a game changer. No emissions, I can fit the kids and my Mother in law in the sedan and it is fun to drive. So I bought one. My husband would have waited but he admits it is fun to drive.
I believe the correct answer is "Yes".
We've seen plenty of threads here with people talking about how they wouldn't otherwise be buying in this segment except for the Model S. We've also heard from people who switched.
I also believe that the dominant behavior is market expansive (people buying Model S that wouldn't otherwise buy in this segment) rather than substitutive. To really see this dynamic well, you'd want to look at the competitive offerings and their units or $$ demand/delivery year by year for as many years back as you can get, so you can assess the degree to which they are growing or shrinking. The difficulty with this analysis is assessing what their volume would have been if Model S didn't exist, but you can at least start getting an answer.
This is interesting to think about. Elon is still saying he can produce Model 3 at a base price of $35K. But Model S and Model X start at $70K.
A number of the more pessimistic of us suspect Model 3 will come in at $45K. But assuming Elon's right and it comes in at $35K, that means he's got a market segment missing between Model 3 and Model S. Will Model S and Model X have their price dropped to hit the base-$50K market? Will the new Roadster in 2019 be the new $70K car? If Tesla can do price reductions that fast, I would be very impressed.
I think that missing market segment will be hit by the model 3 with upgrades. I do believe that the 3 will come in at 35k but I expect that to be quite bare bones. I think the 3 will have to go up to 50k or so to get the same feel as the S for a wow car.
muleferg
Active Member
At some point last year Elon clarified that the selling price was around $35,000 before any government incentives (of course, once the web guys get hold of the marketing information and they factor that other stuff in on the website, watch - the price will show as $9,000!!).
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Or maybe Tesla will have sold enough cars by the time Model 3 arrives that the Federal incentive will have expired for Tesla. And Tesla is planning for that to be the case now and properly positioning the pricing for that situation.
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