Anyone in Canada have solar panels?

[mknox]

I'm curious about the level of detail the signatures contain though... I assume they simply look for a bump of an approximate amount of power.

Essentially, yes. It does depend on the resolution of the data that they (Bidgely, for example) receives. I am guessing that data from your smart meter has a resolution of 1 hour, meaning that the meter takes a "snapshot" of your consumption every hour for a set of 24 data points daily. Not very granular, but they claim it's enough to figure out major appliances like air conditioning and electric vehicles. The Zigbee module in the meter could be configured to send more granular data to the Rainforest device, but I do not know how BC Hydro has these set up. The data feed I send from my TED is at a resolution of 10 seconds, so much more granular. But even then, I find it is not 100% at figuring out what's what. Part of it might be my problem. For example both my EV and water heater are currently on 20 amp, 240 volt circuits. I shut my water heater off with a timer such that it only runs during off-peak times. So when the water heater fires up, it runs for a couple of hours straight sometimes if I've used a lot of water during the day, and I don't know how they'd distinguish that from my EV which pulls the same amount of steady power when it comes on.

 

[wayner]

For the ROIs that people are mentioning - are you taking into account the CCA of 50% per year? This may not work if you are an individual but if you are a business then this should help to juice the ROI by a few percent as in the early years of the solar panels you will get a very nice CCA non-cash expense to apply against your income. It still likely doesn't give you a very good ROI in places like AB, but at least it helps a bit.

 

[beeeerock]

Essentially, yes. It does depend on the resolution of the data that they (Bidgely, for example) receives. I am guessing that data from your smart meter has a resolution of 1 hour, meaning that the meter takes a "snapshot" of your consumption every hour for a set of 24 data points daily. Not very granular, but they claim it's enough to figure out major appliances like air conditioning and electric vehicles. The Zigbee module in the meter could be configured to send more granular data to the Rainforest device, but I do not know how BC Hydro has these set up. The data feed I send from my TED is at a resolution of 10 seconds, so much more granular.

BC Hydro has us set up to be closer to what your TED is doing I suspect... when I 'train' it to recognize an appliance, I see a real-time graph that's not more than 10 seconds behind what my actions would predict. Here is a screen grab of the Bidgely site, showing the last 24 hours of consumption. You'll see a bump around 4 PM when I got home from a trip to Sun Peaks, then another when we returned from dinner at the inlaws and the charger went back into action. It hadn't fully charged by our 6PM departure. And yeah, Laundry Day!!

 

[mknox]

For the ROIs that people are mentioning - are you taking into account the CCA of 50% per year? This may not work if you are an individual but if you are a business then this should help to juice the ROI by a few percent as in the early years of the solar panels you will get a very nice CCA non-cash expense to apply against your income.

That's a good point. I have an income property that this might have worked nicely on, and it it positioned such that solar would be an excellent fit. Just never thought of that angle!

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BC Hydro has us set up to be closer to what your TED is doing I suspect...

It does look that way. The little icon that looks like a cell strength indicator (right below the blue kWh icon) is indicating that you are sending very high resolution data. If you were sending hourly or 15 minute data, you would only see 1 or 2 bars there.

When I was in discussions with Bidgely, we were talking about sending AMI (smart meter) data straight to them from our system without the need of the in-home device. The downside is that the data would be day-behind and only at hourly resolution. Bidgely claimed that it was still good enough to provide information to "itemize" the electricity bill we send out. They were pitching the idea that an electric bill, if it looked more like an itemized credit card bill, would be more useful to consumers in helping them understand where their electricity actually went in the home. This much for a/c, that much for water heating and so forth. A clever idea, actually.

Separately, I was working with our smart meter vendor who had also integrated with Rainforest and Bidgely. The problem there was our regulator would not let me recover the costs of the Zigbee module in the smart meter and the in-home device in our ratebase, and it didn't seem likely that consumers would be willing to fork out to cover those costs. We had done some piloting with in-home energy monitors in the past, and the customer reception/uptake was not good in our market.

 

[wayner]

In Alberta that is correct. However if you want be Net Zero (kWh not cost) the system has to be oversized to compensate for the lack of sunshine and snow cover in the winter.
I calculated that there is a 4-5% ROI so payback is 20-25 years at current energy prices on our system. Still better return than the banks if you have the capital

By my calculation at a cost of $31,800 for 10kW of panels generating 12,000 kWh per year for 30 years (0 residual value, ignoring taxes and HST, CCA, insurance, etc) gives an IRR of -3.5% at a rate of $0.05/kWh, -1.1% at $0.075/kWh, 0.9% at $0.10/kWh and 2.6% at $0.125/kWh. None of those look all that great on a risk adjusted basis compared to a bank note. 30 year Govt of Canada bonds currently yield 2.24%, are lower risk and you get the return of principal at the end of the 30 years - with panels you still have the panels but are they still worth anything in 30 years?

FYI - at the current Ontario microFIT rate of $0.384 you get a return of 16.8% but that rate is actually only good for 20 years.

Obviously your actual return will vary depending on a variety of factors such as actual kWh produced, initial cost, lifespan of panels, financing costs (if you finance), depreciation for tax purposes (aka CCA), taxes paid on revenue, increased insurance rate, residual value, any maintenance capital required (like having to replace inverter after 10 or so years), etc.

According to this site: http://pv.nrcan.gc.ca/pvmapper.php?...hotovoltaïque+et+ensoleillement&lang=e&lang=e
the best place in Canada for producing solar power is Southern SK, Southeastern AB and Southwestern MB.

 

[Zapped]

By my calculation at a cost of $31,800 for 10kW of panels generating 12,000 kWh per year for 30 years (0 residual value, ignoring taxes and HST, CCA, insurance, etc) gives an IRR of -3.5% at a rate of $0.05/kWh, -1.1% at $0.075/kWh, 0.9% at $0.10/kWh and 2.6% at $0.125/kWh. None of those look all that great on a risk adjusted basis compared to a bank note. 30 year Govt of Canada bonds currently yield 2.24%, are lower risk and you get the return of principal at the end of the 30 years - with panels you still have the panels but are they still worth anything in 30 years?

FYI - at the current Ontario microFIT rate of $0.384 you get a return of 16.8% but that rate is actually only good for 20 years.

Obviously your actual return will vary depending on a variety of factors such as actual kWh produced, initial cost, lifespan of panels, financing costs (if you finance), depreciation for tax purposes (aka CCA), taxes paid on revenue, increased insurance rate, residual value, any maintenance capital required (like having to replace inverter after 10 or so years), etc.

According to this site: http://pv.nrcan.gc.ca/pvmapper.php?...hotovoltaïque+et+ensoleillement&lang=e&lang=e
the best place in Canada for producing solar power is Southern SK, Southeastern AB and Southwestern MB.

I'm not an accountant but using your example isn't the "simple" math ?
12,000kWh x $0.125 / kWh = $1,500 / year
$1,500 *100 / $31,800 = 4.7% / year

I suppose the panels must be worth something after 25 years... still producing power as per the panel mfg guaranty and who knows what the electricity prices will be, certainly higher I would expect.
Like buying futures

 

[mknox]

I suppose the panels must be worth something after 25 years... still producing power as per the panel mfg guaranty and who knows what the electricity prices will be, certainly higher I would expect.

My understanding is that the panels slowly degrade and the expected useful life is 20 years. I believe this assumption was factored in to Ontario's calculation of FIT rates, but am not 100% sure. In reality, I think it's going to be similar to EV batteries: no one will know for sure until the time has elapsed.

 

[wayner]

I'm not an accountant but using your example isn't the "simple" math ?
12,000kWh x $0.125 / kWh = $1,500 / year
$1,500 *100 / $31,800 = 4.7% / year

I suppose the panels must be worth something after 25 years... still producing power as per the panel mfg guaranty and who knows what the electricity prices will be, certainly higher I would expect.
Like buying futures

What you are calculating is the yield on the investment, not the return. You are ignoring the initial expenditure of $31,800 in Year 1.

What I am calculating is the internal rate of return. It is the rate that makes the Net Present Value of all cash flows zero. The cash flows are as follows:
Year 1 -31,800 +1,500 = -30,300
Year 2 +1,500
Year 3 +1,500
...
Year 30 +1,500
Put those numbers in an excel spreadsheet and use the IRR function.

The difference between this and a 30 year government bond is that with the bond in year 30 you get your initial capital back.

Yes, there may be some residual value in the panels, but I am also ignoring the fact that stuff like your inverter(s) is unlikely to last 30 years and will require replacing, maybe several times.

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My understanding is that the panels slowly degrade and the expected useful life is 20 years. I believe this assumption was factored in to Ontario's calculation of FIT rates, but am not 100% sure. In reality, I think it's going to be similar to EV batteries: no one will know for sure until the time has elapsed.

Hopefully this chart is accurate:

 

[Zapped]

I signed a lease for 5% of the capital cost with ENMAX to get the 20 year maintenance and annual kWh output guarantees.

(I'll have to check the fine print now if things like the inverter are fully included)

 

[beeeerock]

I can't put my hands on the exact details right now, but the panels that are going up on my roof tomorrow (rails mostly in place today) are supposed to have a 25 year warranty if my recollection is correct. I think there was a linear reduction allowance on output, with greater than 80% guaranteed at 25 years. Canadian Solar panels. The inverter (Solaredge) with optimizers can be had with a 25 year warranty too I believe. Basic 10 years on the inverter, with extension available. Optimizers at 25 years. I think.

I should know this for sure, but it's been a few months since I did the research and ordered...

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When I was in discussions with Bidgely, we were talking about sending AMI (smart meter) data straight to them from our system without the need of the in-home device. The downside is that the data would be day-behind and only at hourly resolution. Bidgely claimed that it was still good enough to provide information to "itemize" the electricity bill we send out. They were pitching the idea that an electric bill, if it looked more like an itemized credit card bill, would be more useful to consumers in helping them understand where their electricity actually went in the home. This much for a/c, that much for water heating and so forth. A clever idea, actually.

Looking at my data, I would have a very tough time believing they could actually itemize the usage in that way if it was done with only hourly data! With the accuracy possible from the finer resolution I'm seeing, doing the basics to 'program' their end to see uses would be a very helpful way to understand the monthly statement.

Separately, I was working with our smart meter vendor who had also integrated with Rainforest and Bidgely. The problem there was our regulator would not let me recover the costs of the Zigbee module in the smart meter and the in-home device in our ratebase, and it didn't seem likely that consumers would be willing to fork out to cover those costs. We had done some piloting with in-home energy monitors in the past, and the customer reception/uptake was not good in our market.

That's really unfortunate policy... as time goes on, I would expect this sort of data to see more and more use and demand.

I hadn't realized that the Rainforest connection required an additional piece of hardware in the meter. I had assumed that the Rainforest unit simply listened to the data packets going to the utility. But given the resolution/frequency of the transmissions, having every meter in the city spouting data to the utility would result in complete RF bedlam.

One think I'd really like to see (but doesn't sound like it's available yet) is the ability for my inverter to talk directly to Bidgely and add it's 2 cents to the energy monitoring data. It would be a good way to understand how much power is being used in the house, how much is headed out to the grid, or how much is coming in from the grid. It's going to be complicated to keep track of all of this myself - in fact, I probably won't be able to, without it becoming a serious hobby/obsession.

 

[mknox]

I hadn't realized that the Rainforest connection required an additional piece of hardware in the meter. I had assumed that the Rainforest unit simply listened to the data packets going to the utility. But given the resolution/frequency of the transmissions, having every meter in the city spouting data to the utility would result in complete RF bedlam.

Each Smart meter technology works a little differently. The Sensus FlexNet system used in about 1/3 of Ontario is a "store and forward" technology utilizing a licensed band to transmit directly to towers. They will typically send data every 1.5 to 4 hours. The Itron OpenWay system used by BC Hydro utilizes an unlicensed RF mesh with takeout points throughout the network. The takeout points are just meters that have a second (typically cellular) radio to transmit the collected data to the head end system. I experimented with turning up the Sensus broadcast interval to allow devices like the Rainforest to "piggyback" on the regular transmissions, but it just wasn't practical. I used to use an older Itron ERT system here, and they could add pole mounted collectors that would capture the continuous stream of data "bubbling up" from the meters. That technology would probably lend itself to having in home devices "piggy back" on the signal. I did evaluate OpenWay for the Ontario market, but that was a long time ago and I can't remember what its broadcast interval is. I do suspect that they are using a separate radio (likely Zigbee) for the in-home communications channel.

 

[wayner]

A microFIT question for those in the know (likely mknox).

Who pays the "subsidy" for the current microFIT program? What I mean by subsidy is the difference between what Toronto Hydro pays me (which is $0.384/kWh) and their average cost for power? Does the local utility have to eat this cost or do they get reimbursed by the province or the IESO (or some other entity like that)?

 

[mknox]

A microFIT question for those in the know (likely mknox).

Who pays the "subsidy" for the current microFIT program? What I mean by subsidy is the difference between what Toronto Hydro pays me (which is $0.384/kWh) and their average cost for power? Does the local utility have to eat this cost or do they get reimbursed by the province or the IESO (or some other entity like that)?

The cost of power (in all cases) is a pass through for the utility. Utilities are like the FedEx of the power industry. They deliver the package (power) but only get paid for delivering it.

There is a settlement process between the IESO and your local utility for these FIT programs. At the end of the day, the differences between the market cost of power and the FIT rates makes their way in to the Global Adjustment and is socialized (spread) across all electricity consumers.

 

[SmartElectric]

At the end of the day, the differences between the market cost of power and the FIT rates makes their way in to the Global Adjustment and is socialized (spread) across all electricity consumers.

The IESO reported that majority of global adjustment payments were not for renewable power.

The Global Adjustment mostly pays for gas plants to be hot/idle and for Nuclear to boil steam instead of producing power as is necessary many nights due to excess base-load (ie. Nuclear) generation.

 

[tesltoronto]

Can anyone please suggest some 'good' solar panel installers? I had got my roof replaced in the hope of installing solar panels - but with so many installers with not much experience, I had put the solar panels installation in the back burner. I would like to start looking at it and any recommendation would be greatly appreciated.

 

[SmartElectric]

Can anyone please suggest some 'good' solar panel installers?

PM sent.

 

[RAM_Eh]

PM sent.

I used Solsmart. The experience was very good.

 

[mknox]

The IESO reported that majority of global adjustment payments were not for renewable power.

The Global Adjustment mostly pays for gas plants to be hot/idle and for Nuclear to boil steam instead of producing power as is necessary many nights due to excess base-load (ie. Nuclear) generation.

It's kinda complicated. The IESO (Independent Electricity System Operator) manages the grid in real-time but operates under certain political realities. One of those is that they are required to purchase wind power at contract rates (usually higher than the hourly market price) whether the electricity is needed or not. They can't be dispatched like most gas plants, and wind is most often prevalent at night in Ontario. This means that in periods of low demand, wind can "displace" baseload generation like nuclear. So in certain scenarios, the GA does support a lot of renewables, but in a kind of roundabout way: they pay higher contract rates (directly impacts the GA) and then have to deal with displaced baseload (also affects GA, but due to the way the renewables are handled).

 

[SmartElectric]

They can't be dispatched like most gas plants, and wind is most often prevalent at night in Ontario. This means that in periods of low demand, wind can "displace" baseload generation like nuclear

That was true till September 2013 and then IESO began to dispatch wind, and that is absolutely happening in Ontario if you take a look at the estimated wind power production page vs the actual production page, it's obvious when they are dispatching wind now.

Ref:
IESO Improvements Help Transition to More Sustainable Supply Mix: 18-Month Outlook -- TORONTO, Sept. 3, 2013

 

[mknox]

That was true till September 2013 and then IESO began to dispatch wind, and that is absolutely happening in Ontario if you take a look at the estimated wind power production page vs the actual production page, it's obvious when they are dispatching wind now.

Ref:
IESO Improvements Help Transition to More Sustainable Supply Mix: 18-Month Outlook -- TORONTO, Sept. 3, 2013

I heard the IESO talk about this as if it was yet to happen... and I'm pretty sure it was after September, 2013. That newswire link sure suggests otherwise. I had heard that wind operators with contracts had balked at losing revenue that they were "promised" or something like that. Wind is extremely variable, so I'm not sure if you can read too much into the estimated vs. actual chart. Of course, I'm more focussed on the distribution side of the business and not on transmission and generation so cannot profess to be any kind of expert on IESO dispatch processes.

There is a lot of murkiness in the GA and Debt Retirement accounts, however. Take the over $1B gas plant relocations. They were originally sited for technical reasons, not to piss off Liberal candidates in certain ridings. When they were moved, and the operators were given revenue guarantees (who would build a plant if it sat idle all the time) that electricity is now being fed in to areas where it may not be needed (or needed as much) and could be displacing renewables. My guess is a lot of that made it in to the "debt" account, but I'd bet there are some GA consequences as well.