Am I daft to receive a new M3 now?

[LiamPope]

Firstly, the circumstances, and therefore maybe 'the answer', are slightly different for me than for you good folk back home as I am now in Norway, but hopefully you can offer some experience and advice anyway.

So I ordered a new M3 RWD in October last year, happy with the asking price, added red paint for fun. Looking forwards to it. ETA said 28 Jan - 15 Feb before Christmas, but for some reason is now back to TBA, but probably soonish. But the closer I get to receiving it, the colder my feet get! Part of that is that buying a new car just isn't in my DNA! I always have older cars and fix them myself whatever is needed. I'm just getting a bit sick of that in general (at least fixing multiple old cars!), and would like an EV for daily use (still big incentives to do that in Norway), and definitely don't want to deal with fixing an old EV, so this time new with warranty it is!

But the main source of doubt is not all that, but specifically the timing of getting a M3 now. As I get familiar with the Tesla landscape, rumours, etc, it feels increasingly like this might be the worst time to get a new M3. Prices are the highest they have been, add to that Norway has a new creative 'weight tax' for 2023 that adds another £1500 to the price. That is against a backdrop of falling demand, reduced waiting time and price reductions or other incentives in China, UK, US. Seems likely Europe/Norway might reduce prices significantly in 2023, right? In addition to that the spec is less than when I ordered - USS removal annoys me, although not a huge deal, and no sign of any replacement. And that against a backdrop of rumoured return of radar, full M3 refresh, HW4, etc.

So is it daft to get into a new one now? I'm not in a real hurry - we are keeping the S-Max for when we need the space and range for the three little angels, so I will have that to use, plus an old skip until it dies. It will be a cash purchase (savings plus company interest free loan) so I'm not locked into anything there. So it's very tempting to either simply wait longer and see what happens, or consider a used nearly new model.

The latter is currently more tempting I'd say - I still get a shiny new (to me at least) toy and I see I can get, for example, a 2022 model LR with about 20,000 km that looks basically mint for about the same price or even less than what I'm about to pay for a new RWD. That is very, very tempting! Or just stick with a RWD and pay a whole lot less. Also, I know what I'll be getting - a round steering wheel! With stalks! And parking sensors! These are major plusses for my Mrs. Whereas if I do decide to still buy new but wait for a price drop and/or refresh, there's always a chance they'll strip out more equipment and give me a stupid yoke. Also I'm not super fussed about the whole FSD journey as I like driving myself and it'll be pretty useless in Norway anyway, tbh. It's mostly single lane roads where basic autopilot autosteer covers most of it already, the closest thing to motorway driving where you might enjoy EAP/FSD features is 10 km of dual carriageway between the two towns here, there's no real cities, and the weather's always *sugar*, so it wont work anyway! Hence why I say getting a used 21/22 looks slightly more tempting than just waiting longer.

Then again, thousands of people are still taking deliveries right now, and probably enjoying them. Hmmmmmm.

What would yo do? Cheers.

 

[Durzel]

I wouldn't buy a new one right now personally.

• Lack of USS would annoy me too much. Not so much that I need it as much as others do, but the lack of compensating camera based functionality, and scepticism that it will be resolved any time soon (or work consistently, once it is released).
  
  
• A significant "permanent" price cut soon seems inevitable with supply exceeding demand (Tesla just dropped prices for the end of quarter push).
  
  
• Murmurs about a redesign. The Model 3 is a 5+ year old design, and whilst I suspect this redesign will be more about Tesla saving money by reducing the number of parts, it might still bring noteable changes.

I would probably look for a nearly new one with USS if it were me and I felt like I needed to buy one.

 

[boombap]

Daft? Nope.
Will there be something new and shiny in a few months? Probably. There always is. Tesla constantly make changes instead of sticking to fixed model year versions like traditional automakers. It’s still the best Tesla you can get today.

Despite the headlines speculating about a “serious demand problem” we don’t have any actual evidence of that at all and prices have in some European markets like Switzerland gone up since the end of the year, so it doesn’t seem like there is an imminent price adjustment coming, but what works for you, if the car is affordable for you and you want it, get it.

 

[WannabeOwner]

plus an old skip until it dies

Is the running cost of the "skip" (is it ICE?) compared to EV significant? If so waiting, say, 6 months for a M3-Refresh has running-cost implication.

Tesla will have a better crash-test rating than your skip ...

Any other EV-specific issues in Norway? For example, the incentives to buy EV have been very good, now that 90+% of car sold in Norway are EVs is it likely that government has plans to reduce them? Any freebies - such as home-chargers / drive-in-bus-lane etc. that might go away if you wait?

P.S. End-of-quarter discounts were strong, last quarter. Might have just been end-of-year (and the effect of subsidy coming in USA), but if there are discounts at end of Q1, and you aren't in a hurry, you could aim to be cash-ready at end of Q1 for an Inventory car.

 

[GRiLLA]

There really is no softness in demand, lets see what the sales figures show for the quarter just closed. All we've seen is a reversal of the abnormal delays that were caused by Covid lockdowns in China earlier this year. We know there won't be any new incentives in the UK, and the prices will only increase in line with the 10% + inflation in the UK. The 'revised' Model 3 by current accounts is only about making profit margin greater for Tesla.

Nothing is going to be cheaper by waiting, the opposite.

 

[GRiLLA]

There really is no softness in demand, lets see what the sales figures show for the quarter just closed. All we've seen is a reversal of the abnormal delays that were caused by Covid lockdowns in China earlier this year. We know there won't be any new incentives in the UK, and the prices will only increase in line with the 10% + inflation in the UK. The 'revised' Model 3 by current accounts is only about making profit margin greater for Tesla.

Nothing is going to be cheaper by waiting, the opposite.

Q3 figures worldwide just out today, Tesla sales were +40% on the same time last year.

 

[Durzel]

But still below the market expectations, hence the cratering of the stock price today.

Tesla also massively discounted the price of the cars towards the end of the year, and gave 6000 miles supercharging (itself worth several thousand depending on when/where you charge).

We'll see if they discount things slightly in the coming months, my money is on there being a discount of between £2500 - £5000 on different models.

 

[Mr Puzzles]

The inventory still has the discounts applied

 

[GRiLLA]

But still below the market expectations, hence the cratering of the stock price today.

Tesla also massively discounted the price of the cars towards the end of the year, and gave 6000 miles supercharging (itself worth several thousand depending on when/where you charge).

We'll see if they discount things slightly in the coming months, my money is on there being a discount of between £2500 - £5000 on different models.

This isn’t really something new, we had end of quarter offers before. There was one time when unlimited supercharging was given for end of quarter sales on S/X a year or so after it otherwise stopped. I got 5k SuperCharger miles from referral, only managed to use 3K.

Growing by 40% rather than guidance of 50% definitely would effect a stock price, but doesn’t indicate that prices are likely to decrease in an inflating economy.

 

[candida]

Nothing is going to be cheaper by waiting…

Except second hand cars.

 

[Buzzliteyear]

The USS removal might not be as big of an issue, since Tesla is disabling them on older cars. First they disabled the radar and then USS, now it's all vision based. So far everybody is waiting to see if vision only can match or outperform the USS and radar.

 

[WannabeOwner]

and gave 6000 miles supercharging (itself worth several thousand depending on when/where you charge).

I've not seen the details, is that time-limited? If so I doubt many people will manage to use it all up ... so although "book value" is a lot, it maytbe not be all that much to Tesla bottom-line, and of course its whoi9lesale price cost for them, not retail.

 

[TechnoWatch]

The main point I can see is that you are in Norway… I would not get a M3 RWD for 2 reasons:
1. No heat pump
2. No 4 wheel drive

As it does not have a heat pump meaning cold weather range is more affected and the 4 wheel drive implementation is really good with it being RWD until needed, so keeping the efficiency.

We switched form an S-Max to a model y and we’re surprised to find it had even more storage space, especially in a day to day practical way. The main issue is the curved roof bars making roof based bike or sheet material carrying impractical.

 

[GRiLLA]

The main point I can see is that you are in Norway… I would not get a M3 RWD for 2 reasons:
1. No heat pump
2. No 4 wheel drive

As it does not have a heat pump meaning cold weather range is more affected and the 4 wheel drive implementation is really good with it being RWD until needed, so keeping the efficiency.

We switched form an S-Max to a model y and we’re surprised to find it had even more storage space, especially in a day to day practical way. The main issue is the curved roof bars making roof based bike or sheet material carrying impractical.

It will have the heat pump, all versions have this.

 

[Big_D]

The USS removal might not be as big of an issue, since Tesla is disabling them on older cars.

USS isn’t being disabled in older cars. This is all rumour and speculation.

 

[Adopado]

The main point I can see is that you are in Norway… I would not get a M3 RWD for 2 reasons:
1. No heat pump
2. No 4 wheel drive

As it does not have a heat pump meaning cold weather range is more affected and the 4 wheel drive implementation is really good with it being RWD until needed, so keeping the efficiency.

We switched form an S-Max to a model y and we’re surprised to find it had even more storage space, especially in a day to day practical way. The main issue is the curved roof bars making roof based bike or sheet material carrying impractical.

Model 3 RWD has the heat pump ... what makes you think otherwise? I have the earlier SR+ and I have found that having only RWD as against AWD is much less of an issue than you might imagine. This is not an ICE car with a heavy front and a light rear. The weight balance combined with the excellent modulation of traction means that there is little comparison with RWD of yesteryear. It handles excellently in snow with winter tyres that any Norwegian driver will require to fit.

 

[yessuz]

with all that infrastructure in Norway, I would really consider alternatives :/

biggest issue to me is the quality of the interior and noise insulation

 

[Rooster6655]

If they see demand declining in certain countries then they would likely reduce prices in that country not a blanket decrease. I would be waiting till the end of March for a deal as for whatever reason Tesla seems to disappear a lot of new unsold inventory at the beginning of quarters, perhaps to push used cars.

 

[LiamPope]

Thanks for the opinions, all. Food for thought.

Is the running cost of the "skip" (is it ICE?) compared to EV significant? If so waiting, say, 6 months for a M3-Refresh has running-cost implication.

Tesla will have a better crash-test rating than your skip ...

Any other EV-specific issues in Norway? For example, the incentives to buy EV have been very good, now that 90+% of car sold in Norway are EVs is it likely that government has plans to reduce them? Any freebies - such as home-chargers / drive-in-bus-lane etc. that might go away if you wait?

P.S. End-of-quarter discounts were strong, last quarter. Might have just been end-of-year (and the effect of subsidy coming in USA), but if there are discounts at end of Q1, and you aren't in a hurry, you could aim to be cash-ready at end of Q1 for an Inventory car.

Well it would be nice to start 'saving' on running costs (by spending ~£50k on a new car ) asap, but it's not a big deal. Skip is a trusty 99 Passat diesel so it's cheap enough! It just has issues I can't be arsed to troubleshoot and isn't long for the world. I'd rather be using my pre-babies 'pride and joy', an E39 5-Series as the second/backup car, but it has terminal rust . But with the S-Max I can be patient without worrying about having to take the bus.

Incentives for EVs are big here, but slowly being clawed back. Things like no annual road tax, no tolls/ferry charges, use of bus lanes, etc. Used to be zero, now you have to pay a bit. The big one is the evil 'one time tax' that applies to new cars and effectively makes cars here 1.5-2x more expensive than normal places! That is zero for EVs, so it essentially means while a Tesla is competing with high-end ICE everywhere else, it is equivalent to mid-range ICE here. That's what is getting everyone into EVs! They have begun to claw that back in 2023 with VAT on value over 500k (~£50k) for EVs and this weight tax. This isn't super applicable to me, though, as I'm not weighing up new ICE vs new EV.

The main point I can see is that you are in Norway… I would not get a M3 RWD for 2 reasons:
1. No heat pump
2. No 4 wheel drive

As it does not have a heat pump meaning cold weather range is more affected and the 4 wheel drive implementation is really good with it being RWD until needed, so keeping the efficiency.

We switched form an S-Max to a model y and we’re surprised to find it had even more storage space, especially in a day to day practical way. The main issue is the curved roof bars making roof based bike or sheet material carrying impractical.

Model 3 RWD has the heat pump ... what makes you think otherwise? I have the earlier SR+ and I have found that having only RWD as against AWD is much less of an issue than you might imagine. This is not an ICE car with a heavy front and a light rear. The weight balance combined with the excellent modulation of traction means that there is little comparison with RWD of yesteryear. It handles excellently in snow with winter tyres that any Norwegian driver will require to fit.

Yeah they all have a heat pump. I'm in south-west Norway so climate is similar to Scotland. Not much genuine need for 4WD to be honest. If I go into the mountains will probably bring the S-Max as FWD with good winter tyres is perfectly OK. My BMW is utterly useless, but I've heard similar things to Adopado - that Tesla, or EV in general, traction control is a league ahead of ICE TC in terms of control, so even a RWD Tesla is probably useable on snow too.

Regarding future discount, yes it is all speculation. But I think based on reducing waiting list, Q4 nunmbers, etc it is pretty reasonable sopeculation. Also, the impact of competition is only going one direction. Having said that, it is just reported over here that Tesla broke new records in 2022 and had 12% of the market - for all new car sales, not only EVs!! There is no new inventory, and mostly only 2019 M3s used for some reason on Tesla.com. So perhaps no reason to expect a price drop very soon here at least.

With that in mind, and the big part of me opposed to ever buying a brand new car screaming at me, I must say a minty used 2021/22 LR is looking inreasingly tempting! Hmmmmmmm...

 

[TechnoWatch]

Model 3 RWD has the heat pump ... what makes you think otherwise?

That was a mistake on my part in reading the specs for the wrong version of the Model 3.