All discussion of Rivian Automotive

[RobStark]

RJ says Rivian is aiming to take 10% of the EV market by 2030.

Rivian 'making progress' on production ramp-up, sets market share goal

Rivian Automotive is "making progress" in the increase of production for electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois, assembly plant and is aiming to take 10% share in the EV market by 2030, Chief Executive Officer R.J. Scaringe said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[mongo]

RJ says Rivian is aiming to take 10% of the EV market by 2030.

Rivian 'making progress' on production ramp-up, sets market share goal

Rivian Automotive is "making progress" in the increase of production for electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois, assembly plant and is aiming to take 10% share in the EV market by 2030, Chief Executive Officer R.J. Scaringe said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Has he previously said what he expects the size of the EV market to be in 2030?

 

[RobStark]

Has he previously said what he expects the size of the EV market to be in 2030?

No, but he previously said 1M Rivians per year by 2030.

 

[KJD]

Any production numbers for Jan or Feb ?

 

[Mengy]

No, but he previously said 1M Rivians per year by 2030.

That would be a LOT less than 10% of the EV market in 2030....

 

[Cosmacelf]

Any production numbers for Jan or Feb ?

Nope. Jan/Feb promised deliveries have been pushed to March/April. In other words, we are at the "two months away" stage of product deliveries

TBF, deliveries have been happening, just not very fast.

 

[Cosmacelf]

My notes from: RJ Scaringe to Participate in the Wolfe Research Virtual Global Auto, Auto Tech, and Mobility Conference 2022

Rivian are making running hardware changes on the R1T fairly often still. Software releases are still coming frequently, most releases with new features.

One year ago, Amazon vehicles were delivered for feedback. So they are still finalizing software and some design for vans. So, not quite ready for production yet.

Paint, stamping are shared across three vehicles. One GA for R1T and R1S (both on same), and one GA for commercial vehicles.

Since last earnings call, plant is in front of supply chain, so suppliers are the bottleneck, and not just in semiconductors.

Supplier bottleneck mitigation. They can/(have?) lend employees to lower tech part suppliers to help them.

Interviewer thinks they are at 30 units per day.

Like Tesla, they create their own vehicle control modules, computers, autopilot, infotainment, and all software. RJ kinda fumbled over his words when talking about motors, so it wasn't clear if Rivian actually made their own motors in house yet, but looks like by mid year will definitely be winding their own motors.

Will be coming out with a dual motor variant this year.

Long term, developing battery cells in house and acquiring raw materials from mines.

Up until recently battery supply exceeded demand (so this has changed recently, as predicted by everyone). RJ sees battery cell supply being a constraint going forward. Will be a much bigger issue than current supplier issues.

Currently, Rivian just buys cells from Samsung SDI. They are developing the capability to joint venture with a battery cell supplier to co-invest in new plants (like Nevada Gigafactory). And also in parallel they are in early development to build their own cells.

Currently building a pilot line in-house for their own cells. Electrode coating, cell formation, assembly is being proved out.

Rivian will have to put in place feedstock agreements eventually, but aren't there yet.

Commercial vehicle - lots of value given the Amazon due to very tight software integration with Amazon's distribution system. Even to the level of planning out when and where the vehicle should be charged based on routing.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow. Rivian just bumped up prices of the R1S before they started delivering, by around $20K. Unlike Tesla, they will not honor their initial quotes. People on Reddit are cancelling in droves. Gotta say that I’m not surprised. Rivian’s pricing was always too good to be true.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Rivian/comments/t4jrue

 

[RobStark]

The base price for the R1T stayed the same. They decontented the vehicle.

You used to get quad motor and 314 miles of range for $67.5k.

Now you get dual motor AWD and 260 miles of range for $67.5k.

A quad motor 314 mile range R1T with no other options is $79.5k. I don't see a destination fee in the configurator.

Rivian will not have a demand problem.

Before today Rivian had 2018 prices. There has been significant general inflation and automotive inflation since then.

Rivian doesn't have the cash to sell 71k vehicles at way below cost.

Take the PR hit and put the company on sound financial footing is a good move.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The base price for the R1T stayed the same. They decontented the vehicle.

You used to get quad motor and 314 miles of range for $67.5k.

Now you get dual motor AWD and 260 miles of range for $67.5k.

A quad motor 314 mile range R1T with no other options is $79.5k. I don't see a destination fee in the configurator.

Rivian will not have a demand problem.

Before today Rivian had 2018 prices. There has been significant general inflation and automotive inflation since then.

Rivian doesn't have the cash to sell 71k vehicles at way below cost.

Take the PR hit and put the company on sound financial footing is a good move.

“Now” you get dual motor? Try again. That‘s a 2024 build item if then. If you want a Rivian this year, you have to pony up for the original quad motor.

I noticed how you glossed over that Rivian isn’t honoring their pricing, whereas Tesla always has. Tesla removed their Cybertruck page so they wouldn’t be stuck with old pricing. Rivian instead does a bait and switch. Elon, of course, won’t get credit for being honest.

The other thing this shows, IMHO, is that the quad motors was a gimmick from the get go. It delivers no real advantages other than increasing costs. Rivian abandoned their useless “tank turn” when they realized how hard it is to do without causing vehicle damage (you are basically removing traction from all tires, which means that unless done on a level surface and far from anything, the odds of sliding into a rock or other obstruction is too high).

Look, Tesla had their share of problems with the Roadster too. People forget how hard it is to get everything right. We are just seeing some of the early execution failures from Rivian. We shall see more in the next couple of years (among other things, service will likely be a nightmare).

 

[brancky3]

Wow. Rivian just bumped up prices of the R1S before they started delivering, by around $20K. Unlike Tesla, they will not honor their initial quotes. People on Reddit are cancelling in droves. Gotta say that I’m not surprised. Rivian’s pricing was always too good to be true.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Rivian/comments/t4jrue

Yeah I cancelled mine immediately after seeing the price increase. My $78k config went up to $97k. Yikes. I had really high hopes for the Rivian brand but I'm sure this isn't a good look

 

[RobStark]

“Now” you get dual motor? Try again. That‘s a 2024 build item if then. If you want a Rivian this year, you have to pony up for the original quad motor.

I noticed how you glossed over that Rivian isn’t honoring their pricing, whereas Tesla always has. Tesla removed their Cybertruck page so they wouldn’t be stuck with old pricing. Rivian instead does a bait and switch. Elon, of course, won’t get credit for being honest.

The other thing this shows, IMHO, is that the quad motors was a gimmick from the get go. It delivers no real advantages other than increasing costs. Rivian abandoned their useless “tank turn” when they realized how hard it is to do without causing vehicle damage (you are basically removing traction from all tires, which means that unless done on a level surface and far from anything, the odds of sliding into a rock or other obstruction is too high).

Look, Tesla had their share of problems with the Roadster too. People forget how hard it is to get everything right. We are just seeing some of the early execution failures from Rivian. We shall see more in the next couple of years (among other things, service will likely be a nightmare).

Like Tesla, Rivian will build higher spec vehicles first. Tesla is still doing this way after the startup phase.

Over 1M reserved cybertrucks at $40k for single motor 250 miles of range, $50k for dual motor 300 miles of range, and $70k for triple motor and 500 miles of range. Any changes to that is just as much a bait and switch as Rivian.

Elon has heavily implied on twitter that Tesla is now offering quad motor, tank turn, and crab walk. If it is a gimmick for Rivian or GM then it is a gimmick for Tesla.

Launching Model S after the global financial crisis was no cake walk but the Pandemic and European War is on a different level. Russia and Ukraine are the top sources for neon gas needed to make computer chips? Are you kidding me?

We shall see over the next few years but I still think Rivian will make it.

 

[mltv]

Rivian raises price of electric truck 17% ahead of new dual-motor version

Rivian raised the price of its all-electric R1T pickup by 17% and R1S SUV by about 20% to adjust to increases in parts costs and to prepare for a new dual-motor version.

techcrunch.com

Not surprise at all, I think they mentioned about relooking at their prices during the earnings. I was surprise how low their prices initially. As much as they have delivered to external customer, next to no customer get the low initial prices.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Like Tesla, Rivian will build higher spec vehicles first. Tesla is still doing this way after the startup phase.

Over 1M reserved cybertrucks at $40k for single motor 250 miles of range, $50k for dual motor 300 miles of range, and $70k for triple motor and 500 miles of range. Any changes to that is just as much a bait and switch as Rivian.

Elon has heavily implied on twitter that Tesla is now offering quad motor, tank turn, and crab walk. If it is a gimmick for Rivian or GM then it is a gimmick for Tesla.

Launching Model S after the global financial crisis was no cake walk but the Pandemic and European War is on a different level. Russia and Ukraine are the top sources for neon gas needed to make computer chips? Are you kidding me?

We shall see over the next few years but I still think Rivian will make it.

Oh, Rivian still has a shot at making it. I just think it annoying that Tesla got creamed for making various mistakes in its life, and here’s Rivian making the same kind of mistakes now. Turns out starting a car company from scratch is really hard (who knew, right?).

Btw, correction on my part, Rivian is honoring old pricing for those vehicles, R1T only, that are scheduled to be delivered in the next few weeks. Everyone else gets the new pricing.

 

[mltv]

Talking about unbelievable prices, Fisker prices are as artificial as they come. Good luck to deliver at those prices.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'm surprised they didn't just go to Jeffery Besos to get help with absorbing some more losses instead of doing this. If their goal is to anger their early adopters, they could scarcely have found a better way.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Before today Rivian had 2018 prices.

They were 2022 prices, based on bad estimates.

Rivian doesn't have the cash to sell 71k vehicles at way below cost.

They have ~18 billion. Honoring the price for their first 10,000 supporters would have cost ~0.12 billion, less than 1% of their cash hoard.

I noticed how you glossed over that Rivian isn’t honoring their pricing, whereas Tesla always has. Tesla removed their Cybertruck page so they wouldn’t be stuck with old pricing.

You really believe Tesla will honor the price for those million or so people who reserved while the original page was still up? Wanna bet?

 

[mltv]

Polls show more than half of Rivian customers are cancelling their reservations

Rivian announced some major changes to their lineup yesterday, adding a Dual-Motor AWD variant and raising prices for new and existing customers by as much as $20,000 or more depending on the configuration. Reaction was […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Cosmacelf]

Polls show more than half of Rivian customers are cancelling their reservations

Rivian announced some major changes to their lineup yesterday, adding a Dual-Motor AWD variant and raising prices for new and existing customers by as much as $20,000 or more depending on the configuration. Reaction was […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Interesting! But should not actually affect Rivian since they had a very large backlog.

 

[Discoducky]

Oh, Rivian still has a shot at making it. I just think it annoying that Tesla got creamed for making various mistakes in its life, and here’s Rivian making the same kind of mistakes now. Turns out starting a car company from scratch is really hard (who knew, right?).

Btw, correction on my part, Rivian is honoring old pricing for those vehicles, R1T only, that are scheduled to be delivered in the next few weeks. Everyone else gets the new pricing.

Does not bode well for Rivian, but I remember when Roadster prices went up as well.

I feel like they raised prices as their BOM (Bill Of Materials) went up a lot due to various reasons (inflation, pandemic supply chain, too many ECOs, not enough value add to offset) and they couldn't stay in business if they didn't raise prices. I'm sure this hurt for them, but they passed it on to customers. The indirect losses will now accrue.