*Adam
Member
You're right it's the customer taking the risk and the risk is only on Octopus if the price exceeds the 35 p/KWh max ceiling; which it has done far too often this winter. It's excceded it by quite a lot at times.
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Agile plunge pricing predictions
- Thread starter philgods
- Start date
You're right it's the customer taking the risk and the risk is only on Octopus if the price exceeds the 35 p/KWh max ceiling; which it has done far too often this winter. It's excceded it by quite a lot at times.
Rooster6655
Active Member
Yes same, make little sense to stay on Agile if you need t charge your car when these high prices look likely to stay for a while, granted people may have saved money up until now but as its not cost to switch it makes sense to consider the Go tariff for a while.
ACarneiro
Active Member
I can’t help but feel that that switching is abusing Octopus’s good will somewhat...
But yes, I know, they can make minimum term requirements on those tariffs if they become a money drain for them...
But yes, I know, they can make minimum term requirements on those tariffs if they become a money drain for them...
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
Not sure there's any good will associated with the deals they are offering. Right now, they are making a fair bit of profit from Agile, in particular, far more than the fixed tariff suppliers are. Profitability is the whole reason for introducing Agile in the first place, it is probably the tariff Octopus offers that makes them the most money. I would hazard a guess that Go is more profitable that some other tariffs, too, given that the low price window is only for the four hours when the wholesale prices are often very low.
I agree that the Agile tariff with its 2.1 margin for 21 hrs a day + a maximum of 12p extra each half hour between 4pm and 7pm soon add up to a much more profitable business model than a competitive fixed price model. Additionally there is no need to hedge which saves a lot.
OK this last month has been unusual and Octopus may have had to swallow some horrendous peak rates at times but I still reckon they will be doing very nicely thank you. After all, how many folk will be using lots of power at 35p per kWh? That said, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see the margin tweaked a little when the pricing comes up for review later this year.
OK this last month has been unusual and Octopus may have had to swallow some horrendous peak rates at times but I still reckon they will be doing very nicely thank you. After all, how many folk will be using lots of power at 35p per kWh? That said, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see the margin tweaked a little when the pricing comes up for review later this year.
I'm fortunate enough that this year with Agile, my average daily price hasn't exceeded my price last year of 15p kWh. Its come close in the last few days but I'm still better off with Agile and happy to have moved.
Rooster6655
Active Member
Well I am not too concerned about their good will that much as my meter hasn’t been working for nearly 4 months and only getting somewhere now the ombudsman is involved.
I think I’ll stick with go for the long term and not have to worry about the peak periods anymore, I think the price difference wouldn’t make it worth bothering for my actual use but I’d have to wait until I actually get a bill
I suspect Octopus over time will get less flexible with allowing you to chop and change between Agile and Go. Fixed pricing plans are essentially an insurance policy, and by choosing the fixed plan (assuming it's not because you can't deal with the stress of managing a variable rate plan) you are basically saying "I know better than the energy company". Cost+ is *always* (in the long run) going to be more cost-effective than any hedged fixed cost plan, simply because the energy company has to get the hedge right or they will go bust, so the hedge will always be in their favour.
Even if I didn't have an EV, Agile would still be in my favour, because I run a couple of small NUC servers and a Synology, which consume around 100W. That baseline ends up costing me -on average- less than any fixed cost plan would. Now if on top of that I change my behaviour ever so slightly to do a few things when I know the rate is lowest, then those savings are icing on the cake (I *could* also do the same with Go). However, if I was a *heavy* EV user, and needed my 4h every single night, then there would be plenty of times where I would question charging at 10-15p (Agile when it's high overnight) rather than 5p (Go). So ironically, for some heavy EV users, Agile may not be the ideal plan.
In other words, it's complicated.
Even if I didn't have an EV, Agile would still be in my favour, because I run a couple of small NUC servers and a Synology, which consume around 100W. That baseline ends up costing me -on average- less than any fixed cost plan would. Now if on top of that I change my behaviour ever so slightly to do a few things when I know the rate is lowest, then those savings are icing on the cake (I *could* also do the same with Go). However, if I was a *heavy* EV user, and needed my 4h every single night, then there would be plenty of times where I would question charging at 10-15p (Agile when it's high overnight) rather than 5p (Go). So ironically, for some heavy EV users, Agile may not be the ideal plan.
In other words, it's complicated.
I vaguely remember an Octopus rep post (might even be on this thread, I'm too lazy to check) where they basically confirmed what you said, in the context of why they don't allow people to chop and change between smart tariffs on a whim. I believe it is currently 30 days before you can switch.I suspect Octopus over time will get less flexible with allowing you to chop and change between Agile and Go. Fixed pricing plans are essentially an insurance policy, and by choosing the fixed plan (assuming it's not because you can't deal with the stress of managing a variable rate plan) you are basically saying "I know better than the energy company". Cost+ is *always* (in the long run) going to be more cost-effective than any hedged fixed cost plan, simply because the energy company has to get the hedge right or they will go bust, so the hedge will always be in their favour.
Even if I didn't have an EV, Agile would still be in my favour, because I run a couple of small NUC servers and a Synology, which consume around 100W. That baseline ends up costing me -on average- less than any fixed cost plan would. Now if on top of that I change my behaviour ever so slightly to do a few things when I know the rate is lowest, then those savings are icing on the cake (I *could* also do the same with Go). However, if I was a *heavy* EV user, and needed my 4h every single night, then there would be plenty of times where I would question charging at 10-15p (Agile when it's high overnight) rather than 5p (Go). So ironically, for some heavy EV users, Agile may not be the ideal plan.
In other words, it's complicated.
The reason being, as you say, that the price is modelled in on the presumption that the customer will be on the tariff for a predictable period of time. If you can just chop and change on a daily basis then you can defeat this system fairly easily. I guess it still sortof works for them on the basis that most customers probably aren't that motivated to keep changing constantly, and like insurance policies inertia will probably keep them on their current tariff for longer than it would be financially prudent for them to.
I too am quite surprised at how easy it is to change between Agile and Go, even currently. A friend of mine who I'd encouraged to switch to Octopus, and subsequently Agile, was complaining recently about the current high prices. Even though I pointed out to him that he probably would be averaging lower than his previous tariff, and even Go, and how he enjoyed periods of single digit p/kWh and even negatives not so long ago, it didn't really matter. 24 hours later he was on Go (even though he doesn't have an EV) and it was actually somehow the cheapest tariff Octopus did - 14.29p/kWh - cheaper than all of their standard tariffs which I guess have gone up over the winter.
So, yeah, the more savvy people get the more I would expect Octopus to impose some kind of levy or delay on customers switching on a whim when Agile is bad for a few days.
Drew57
Active ember
I'm almost certainly a few £ worse off in recent weeks because I haven't switched to one of the Go plans.
A Go faster tariff ending at 6.30 am is quite appealing as I could charge the car with a later finish time (presumably lower losses after a cold night) and not have to check Agile to see the best times to charge & set the washer, dryer & dishwasher.
Having said that, I can't see much use of the car over the remainder of the winter (last charged 5 days ago & still on 75%), we sometimes have good solar days where the house batteries cover the evening peak period (two in the last four days) & even at the current high Agile prices, our average is well below what we were paying pre-Octopus. On top of this it costs almost nothing to run the car compared to diesel for the previous vehicle.
My head tells me that a couple of months with Go Faster could save me maybe £5-£10 but that seems awfully petty considering the overall savings compared to last year & against £50k+ for the car so I'll go with my heart and stick it out with Agile even though I suspect the rates will remain pretty high.
A Go faster tariff ending at 6.30 am is quite appealing as I could charge the car with a later finish time (presumably lower losses after a cold night) and not have to check Agile to see the best times to charge & set the washer, dryer & dishwasher.
Having said that, I can't see much use of the car over the remainder of the winter (last charged 5 days ago & still on 75%), we sometimes have good solar days where the house batteries cover the evening peak period (two in the last four days) & even at the current high Agile prices, our average is well below what we were paying pre-Octopus. On top of this it costs almost nothing to run the car compared to diesel for the previous vehicle.
My head tells me that a couple of months with Go Faster could save me maybe £5-£10 but that seems awfully petty considering the overall savings compared to last year & against £50k+ for the car so I'll go with my heart and stick it out with Agile even though I suspect the rates will remain pretty high.
I'm fairly certain Octopus commented on a Facebook post that you need to be on Go for 3 months before you can request Go Faster, not sure if that's always been the case or if it's a recent change but worth asking before committing to switching.
MrBadger
Badger out
My request got turned down due to it being a test tariff that was currently closed.
Pagemakers
Active Member
I’ve been on Agile for almost a year now and it seems to getting more expensive. Many days I’m paying an average of 13-18p/kWh. Compare that with the Go tariff of 13.96p/wWh and 5p/kWh off-peak and Go almost seems a better deal.
Is there a tariff comparator app available that compares your actual data over say 6 months?
Is there a tariff comparator app available that compares your actual data over say 6 months?
Pagemakers
Active Member
MrBadger
Badger out
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