Agile plunge pricing predictions

[Drew57]

I had seen that & would normally boost back up to 85% but I'm consciously letting the battery run down to below 20% (still on mid 70s). It's spent far too long 70-90% & I think the BMS needs some time to recalculate.

Apart from occasional 4 mile runs to the tip/supermarket, the latest England lockdown means I'm hardly using the car for a few weeks (at least).

 

[darkNstormy]

Looks like it's going to be windy+++ later in the week, and again early next week

I use Wind Map - Britain Forecast

 

[Godsense]

I had seen that & would normally boost back up to 85% but I'm consciously letting the battery run down to below 20% (still on mid 70s). It's spent far too long 70-90% & I think the BMS needs some time to recalculate.

Apart from occasional 4 mile runs to the tip/supermarket, the latest England lockdown means I'm hardly using the car for a few weeks (at least).

I also was tempted but like you cars not really been anywhere and my soc not seen any lowish numbers for as ages

Might change my mind if it goes free, helping the grid and all that

 

[Medved_77]

Anyone have any insights as to why the Agile rates have been so terrible this week? I thought with many businesses shut that there would be excess supply.

 

[Glan gluaisne]

Anyone have any insights as to why the Agile rates have been so terrible this week? I thought with many businesses shut that there would be excess supply.

Bugger all wind generation, and next to no solar. Renewable generation has been way down for the past couple of days or so, so we've been running coal and gas generation at a fairly high level.

 

[tomorrowman]

Anyone have any insights as to why the Agile rates have been so terrible this week? I thought with many businesses shut that there would be excess supply.

Yes based on my comparison's over the last week or two struggling to find a reason to go agile - Not enough wind ?

 

[Medved_77]

Bugger all wind generation, and next to no solar. Renewable generation has been way down for the past couple of days or so, so we've been running coal and gas generation at a fairly high level.

Thanks, still feels bloody windy where I am in Scotland though

But it is pitch black between 4pm-8am and dull at all other times.

 

[Medved_77]

Yes based on my comparison's over the last week or two struggling to find a reason to go agile - Not enough wind ?

I was fully expecting to use Go over the winter months however the Agile prices at the start of November were a nice surprise. Will head on to the comparison tool this evening and see how it stacks up for November.

 

[Glan gluaisne]

Thanks, still feels bloody windy where I am in Scotland though

But it is pitch black between 4pm-8am and dull at all other times.

Gridwatch is a useful check: GB Fuel type power generation production

Currently wind is only running at about 2%, and it's mainly wind generation that drives Agile rates - lots of wind at night and Agile drops, little wind at night and it rises.

 

[CMc1]

It’s all to do with where the wind blows too. Think most of the farms are on east coast England?

 

[ACarneiro]

I was fully expecting to use Go over the winter months however the Agile prices at the start of November were a nice surprise. Will head on to the comparison tool this evening and see how it stacks up for November.

I’m pretty sure Octopus were restricting the change from Go to Agile and vice versa?
Trying to find the web page where they explained why...

Edit: it’s here

Explains a bit further down the page.

 

[Medved_77]

I’m pretty sure Octopus were restricting the change from Go to Agile and vice versa?
Trying to find the web page where they explained why...

Edit: it’s here

Explains a bit further down the page.

Interesting thanks, I missed that in their updated terms. Reading it it seems that you could go from Agile > Go (or a standard tariff) but not back to Agile again within 30 days.

I guess if you we're constantly changing due to for example, how windy the week is going to be, they'd incur a bit of an administration headache, especially with billing.

 

[ACarneiro]

I think their biggest problem is, if I understood it right, that they “prebuy” (or hedge) the electricity they think you’re going to be using then you become a customer on a fixed tariff (like Go), but obviously not on Agile so swapping backwards and forwards really screws up their calculations.

 

[ACarneiro]

Bugger all wind generation, and next to no solar. Renewable generation has been way down for the past couple of days or so, so we've been running coal and gas generation at a fairly high level.

Nearly 2GW of coal at the moment. There are even open cycle gas turbines running (didn’t even know they existed any more) for nearly 500MW.
It’s a bad day for air quality for sure...

 

[Godsense]

I’m pretty sure Octopus were restricting the change from Go to Agile and vice versa?
Trying to find the web page where they explained why...

Edit: it’s here

Explains a bit further down the page.

Useful info, had a read.

I think it seems fair enough really, they need to stay in business after all. I guess if it was works out for people to move to Go for a few months over winter it's no big deal. Lot of effort to keep swapping just to save a few pence really.

The fact VPI Immingham OCGT got sign off from the Govt is a surprise (having just googled the subject) but I'm sure someone will enlighten me as to why.

In other news got my first Agile bill, 2 months avg rate of 6.03p

 

[ACarneiro]

In other news got my first Agile bill, 2 months avg rate of 6.03p

Pretty safe to assume it won’t be that over the next two months...

 

[Glan gluaisne]

The fact VPI Immingham OCGT got sign off from the Govt is a surprise (having just googled the subject) but I'm sure someone will enlighten me as to why.

Response time, mainly. OCGT plants can be spooled up relatively quickly, more quickly than CCGT, and much more quickly than coal or nuclear (the latter takes forever and a day to start up) so that makes OCGT very useful for filling in when solar and wind generation drops.

 

[ACarneiro]

Presumably the primary gas turbine in a CCGT is equally as agile in response?

 

[Glan gluaisne]

Presumably the primary gas turbine in a CCGT is equally as agile in response?

Yes, I believe so, it's the heating/cooling stabilisation time to get the closed cycle working that I think slows things down. OCGTs are just jet engines running generators, so can start up and shut down pretty quickly.

 

[Godsense]

Pretty safe to assume it won’t be that over the next two months...

You cursed it