Agile plunge pricing predictions

[Glan gluaisne]

Yeah, definitely not enough wind. But can that not be predicted with reasonable accuracy 36-48 hours prior?

What I'm trying to work out is why the predicted rates for the following day start low and then rise significantly closer to the time. Is it because the amount of wind forecast is over estimated? Or is the amount of energy to be imported and the price of it badly forecast? Or have Octopus got their formula wrong? Don't know.

As above, Octopus know the wholesale price for each 30 minute slot 24 hours in advance, they have to as that's how the buy ahead auction operates. If they cannot give an accurate retail price within the same timescale then that suggests an issue internally, not one related to changes in generation.

 

[ACarneiro]

I suppose that would be a good question for the developer.

contactATsmarthound.uk

 

[Medved_77]

As above, Octopus know the wholesale price for each 30 minute slot 24 hours in advance, they have to as that's how the buy ahead auction operates. If they cannot give an accurate retail price within the same timescale then that suggests an issue internally, not one related to changes in generation.

I'm not sure we're discussing the same thing, but do appreciate your help.

The predictions aren't provided by Octopus, they're provided by a 3rd party app developer (will check what source they're using) that until the recent extreme prices has managed to predict the upcoming prices at 30 min intervals for 48 hours in advance.

It's the variation in the prediction of the 48-24 hour period prior that I'm confused about as they were pretty reliable until a couple of weeks ago.

As @ACarneiro suggests, I'll contact the app developer and see what they say.

 

[Glan gluaisne]

I'm not sure we're discussing the same thing, but do appreciate your help.

The predictions aren't provided by Octopus, they're provided by a 3rd party app developer (will check what source they're using) that until the recent extreme prices has managed to predict the upcoming prices at 30 min intervals for 48 hours in advance.

It's the variation in the prediction of the 48-24 hour period prior that I'm confused about as they were pretty reliable until a couple of weeks ago.

As @ACarneiro suggests, I'll contact the app developer and see what they say.

Ah, thanks, that explains it!

The wholesale day-ahead bid price isn't openly available, so my guess is that the app developer is trying to guess what it may be somehow. That's not that easy, as in addition to weather data the schedule of maintenance works, plus the time lag in firing up different types of generation, needs to be factored in. I've long felt that, in the interest of transparency, the day-ahead auction prices should be in the public domain, but, perhaps understandably, the suppliers are just a bit resistant to that. Best we can get is historical data published by OFGEM, and try to analyse that to spot trends and try to correlate prices from easily accessible data sources.

 

[Glan gluaisne]

It looks like you can, perhaps, buy access to the day-ahead wholesale prices: Wholesale Electricity Prices - Energy Price Charts and Graphs

 

[NewbieT]

So I downloaded all the historical Agile data and compared it to Total Generation for every half hour. Chart is actual data.

Think Supply & Demand. This is very crude but you get a feel for the range of prices based on how much we generated and the corresponding Agile price (NW but not that it really matters).

Left axis Agile price in pence. Bottom axis in Total Generation MW. Flat top is Agile max price 35p.

If we look at the network operators (NG) generation forecast here: 2-14 Day Ahead Output Usable | BMRS

for the next two weeks looks like we’re ‘unprecedented’ in the history of Agile (since Feb 2018). Looks like prices staying *very high* for now. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Don’t blame me if you switch to Go and the wind changes!

No idea why we need to generate so much at the moment?

I’m playing with weighting factors like wind, temperature too. Wind seems to need to be over 13000 MW before it really starts to bring down prices.

 

[NewbieT]

Realised it’s probably better to filter out 4pm-7pm due to the premium. Same graph below just omitting those hours:

 

[roadcred]

I gave up on Agile about 6 weeks ago. I switched to Tesla Energy at 8p 24/7. Apart from the odd agile negative period I am winning every day without having to think about it. Yes I have lost control of my powerwall except to keep 30% for power outs.
\\\i realise that not everyone qualifies as you do need solr and a powerwall.

 

[ACarneiro]

I gave up on Agile about 6 weeks ago. I switched to Tesla Energy at 8p 24/7. Apart from the odd agile negative period I am winning every day without having to think about it. Yes I have lost control of my powerwall except to keep 30% for power outs.
\\\i realise that not everyone qualifies as you do need solr and a powerwall.

Have you seen much activity in your Powerwalls?

 

[Epico]

Found this article that might explain the high prices recently


Power prices spike to £720/MWh as low winds continue to stretch grid

 

[Glan gluaisne]

As that article mentions, price is driven as much by generation type as it is by demand. Wind is just about the cheapest, OCGT and, perhaps, coal, is probably the most expensive (as much because neither normally runs 24/7 as anything else). The contracts the generators have with NG are complex and vary a great deal, depending heavily on factors like response time. Rapid response generation gets paid more than slow response generation, for example.

 

[ACarneiro]

It certainly does make the point of the shortcomings of increased reliance on renewables.
I’m still a great believer in Nuclear generation. Many of its shortcomings might have been negated by now had enough research continued into cheaper, cleaner reactors.

 

[NewbieT]

It certainly does make the point of the shortcomings of increased reliance on renewables.
I’m still a great believer in Nuclear generation. Many of its shortcomings might have been negated by now had enough research continued into cheaper, cleaner reactors.

I agree. They just ain’t cheap. Oh and nearly as many years to decommission as they operate for (hopefully sussed that now).

 

[ACarneiro]

Yes, but that’s with technology that is 40+ years old now.
My point is that maybe they could be a lot cheaper and easier to decommission had we continued proper research into new reactors.

Oh, well. You can’t gain back time lost.

 

[CMc1]

Winds looking like they’re picking up early next week

 

[Epico]

Winds looking like they’re picking up early next week

I hope so...this 20p+ during the day is getting boring!

 

[Godsense]

I hope so...this 20p+ during the day is getting boring!

Isn't it just! Atleast it's calmed a little the last few

 

[CMc1]

Not sure if this has been spotted before but you can get generation and demand forecasts etc free here ENTSO-E Transparency Platform where as Nordpool charge for their API access.

 

[Glan gluaisne]

Agile should be cheap tonight, judging from the level of wind generation. Close to beating the record set in January this year, which was 17.1 GW (just checked and it was hovering around 17 GW).

 

[CMc1]

Agile should be cheap tonight, judging from the level of wind generation. Close to beating the record set in January this year, which was 17.1 GW (just checked and it was hovering around 17 GW).

You’re not wrong...