According to Tesla the Model 3 will not be available until late 2018 at the earliest for UK market.

[Dan43]

You can support your favourite sports team, Baseball, Football, Basketball, Cricket and still complain that one of the players, or a few more in your team, are/is a bit rubbish, that is normal.

No harm in asking the questions of Tesla, even if you are a fan, and also if you don't mind the answers that may come back.

In the UK the deliveries have been a lot different in time scale that the US, especially West Coast. We here have been way behind and in terms of the delivery timings and the M3 will be again. Model S RHD UK were a long long way behind US deliveries, Model X is the same, so will Model 3.

No problem, and we can discuss this as it is a known, not an absolute maybe (as in a strident policy), but a known.

Hope M3 meets all expectations mind, it has the enormous potential to move EVs forward even more and change the game somewhat .....again.

 

[EXOTIC1]

I'm going to stick with my prediction of 1ST quarter 2018 for the first US deliveries. Just a few months later than expected. My wife and daughter are happy to have them coming this soon

 

[xav-]

My prediction for the mass market: 1 year delay.. Which would still be a pretty big achievement considering what the targets are.

if I get my model 3 at the end of 2018 I will be happy. I live in CA and I was in line early morning on 3/31.

Europe buyers who worry that they may not get their cars before the end of 2018 need to get back to earth.

I think delays won't be as bad for the rich folks who order loaded $80k+ cars. I won't be surprised if a few 1000s are shipped early 2018. It would be a very good way for Elon Musk to prop up the stock.

 

[EXOTIC1]

My prediction for the mass market: 1 year delay.. Which would still be a pretty big achievement considering what the targets are.

if I get my model 3 at the end of 2018 I will be happy. I live in CA and I was in line early morning on 3/31.

Europe buyers who worry that they may not get their cars before the end of 2018 need to get back to earth.

I think delays won't be as bad for the rich folks who order loaded $80k+ cars. I won't be surprised if a few 1000s are shipped early 2018. It would be a very good way for Elon Musk to prop up the stock.

I hope it's not going to be a full year but you may be right. I'm still holding out for only a 3-4 month delay.

 

[Red Sage]

My prediction for the mass market: 1 year delay.. Which would still be a pretty big achievement considering what the targets are.

For the sake of clarity, please define what you mean by 'mass market'.

 

[jbcarioca]

Considering only announced or public information sources we have:
Australia
New Zealand
UK
Eire
Japan
Hong Kong

At the moment only the U.K., Japan, Hong Kong and Australia have established infrastructure and all of them need much more before Model 3 volumes can be supported. Luckily the next capital raise should allow for something on the order of US$ 100 million in Superchargers, Showrooms and Service Centres, plus substantial ancillary investments in inventory, spares, etc. That really is not a huge amount of money, nor need it take very much longer than 24 months to do it alll. I think they will move very quickly, including delivering at least some RHD cars by the last quarter 2017. The real challenge, as always, will be meeting demand. Right now they need WA and NI NZ service centres pretty urgently, with more needed all over the U.K. and Japan. Tesla certainly has all of that planned and ready to go quickly just as soon as they raise the money.

All that is quite trivial,compared to establishing volume production, so I think they'll be shipping RHD just as soon as the kinks are worked out in initial production.

The real issue is that they will easily be able to sell all of those cars and many more. Can they get the factory going properly is the question. Past history of delay in RHD was driven by complex changes, small reduction capacity and lack of marker knowledge. All those are fixed, Model 3 was built for simplified changes, the U.K., Australia and Japan are very sweet markets for mid-sized exec saloons, Tesla will be quick off the mark.

Of course I might be completely wrong...

 

[Red Sage]

My prediction for the mass market: 1 year delay.. Which would still be a pretty big achievement considering what the targets are.

For the sake of clarity, please define what you mean by 'mass market'.

Hmmm... No reply to my previous query. OK. Allow me to outline my position:

Some believe that 'mass market' refers to a price point. Elon has already noted in his Master Plan Part Deux that it is unlikely that Tesla will release a less expensive vehicle than Model ☰. So quite a few people will never be satisfied that Tesla serves the 'mass market' at all.

I believe that mass market placement refers to the quantity of vehicles that are Produced, Offered, Delivered, and Sold for public consumption. From my point of view, any vehicle that achieves 100,000+ unit sales qualifies as mass market in the US. That number of sales is typically enough to reach the top 25 in annual sales of passenger cars, and the top 50 among all vehicles sold here.

There are cars that cost less than $15,000 to purchase new that: 1) are outsold by vehicles that cost over $30,000; and 2) never sell as many as 70,000 units in a calendar year in the US. 70,000 units per year is only about 1,400 per week, or 5,800 per month. In 2015 the Nissan Sentra sold 203,509 units with a starting price of $16,530. That is just under 17,000 units per month. Meanwhile, the Ford F-Series sold 780,354 units, or just over 65,000 per month. The best selling 'cheap' car in the US during 2015 was the Nissan Versa, which moved 144,528 units, roughly 12,000 per month. That was only enough for the VERSA to reach #17 among passenger cars, and #33 overall.

During 2015, vehicles that sold less than 30,000 units in the US were ranked #61 or below for passenger cars, and #130 or below for all vehicles. So far this year, all cars and trucks that have not sold at least 100,000 units already are ranked at #35 and below. Some cars that have not yet sold at least 50,000 units through three quarters of 2016 are: Honda Fit #86, Chevrolet Sonic #87, Volkswagen Golf #88, Ford Fiesta #93, and Toyota Yaris #109. I think most people would consider those to be mass market vehicles.

I expect the Tesla Model ☰ will sell enough units during 2017 to crack the top 50 passenger cars, and the top 115 vehicles overall in the US. I think that would require only about 40,000 units reaching their owners that year. And I remind you again that Elon's goal is 100,000 to 200,000 Delivered before the end of 2017. That would probably be the top 25 within passenger cars, and the top 55 or so among all vehicles at the very least. So, 'mass market' for Model ☰ will be reached before the end of 2017.

 

[jbcarioca]

So, going back to the thread topic, the current statement I rely on most is the Elon statement that California would be first, implying also that employees might be before general public, followed by current Tesla owners, then progressing geographically. I see no solid indication about just how that will progress.

Ignoring any prior statements, including my own, I'll wager that the UK will probably be having deliveries beginning 2Q 2018.

 

[Dan43]

It is interesting to some degree, we haven't got RHD Model X until next Jan/Fen at best, next June are most estimates.

Take Model X out the way I believe RHD Model 3 will be late 2018 early 2019, as the US market, if numbers get ticked, will soak up all the spare cars if it proves a success, plus LHD EU markets will get theirs first, RHD last.

 

[Jayc]

While I agree that we have to be realistic in our expectations, I also strongly believe that Model 3 delivery schedule will not fully correlate to timelines for Model S and X. So yes, RHD will come after LHD but will not be as late as X for sure.

 

[Dan43]

2 years from now will be October 2018, I can't see RHD on UK roads inside 2 years, glass half empty type though.

 

[jbcarioca]

2 years from now will be October 2018, I can't see RHD on UK roads inside 2 years, glass half empty type though.

While I agree that we have to be realistic in our expectations, I also strongly believe that Model 3 delivery schedule will not fully correlate to timelines for Model S and X. So yes, RHD will come after LHD but will not be as late as X for sure.

Despite demand remember that Model 3 was designed to be easy to adapt to multiple markets, including RHD. Given all the attention to ease of manufacturing, I'll stick with my guess of 2Q 2018 because several RHD markets are very important to Tesla. Obviously the major question is the ramp-up potential; I am much more optimistic than are many because the major tooling has been ordered, some has already been delivered, and the Gigafactory is actually slightly ahead of schedule. Beyond that Tesla is now opening a showroom/SC in Auckland, has been upgrading facilities in Australia and Japan, preparing for Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. There are many issues and room for doubt, but probably more reasons for optimism than pessimism.

For once: BREXIT is not even relevant to the questions at hand. Is that not nice?

 

[Dan43]

Well the pound has rallied today to $1.23 so take your BREXIT and settle down please....

 

[flamingoezz]

If I recall correctly, the X didn't even make it to Canada for like 10 months after release. Admittedly, they had production issues with them, but if you think they'll have a similar distribution pattern, Canada could see M3's in summer 2018 and they'll probably try to squeeze some M3's into Europe before end of 2018. I wouldn't be entirely shocked if RHD countries didn't see a M3 until 2019.

 

[ccutrer]

If I recall correctly, the X didn't even make it to Canada for like 10 months after release. Admittedly, they had production issues with them, but if you think they'll have a similar distribution pattern, Canada could see M3's in summer 2018 and they'll probably try to squeeze some M3's into Europe before end of 2018. I wouldn't be entirely shocked if RHD countries didn't see a M3 until 2019.

If you're going by that math, the X didn't make it to the US for 3-5 months after "release"

 

[malcolm]

Elon just tweeted

Elon Musk on Twitter

Mid 2018 (should be)