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bdy0627
Active Member
gloating in another's demise for your gain is a bad human... doing math and deciding a stock is overvalued due to the performance of the underlying company is mechanics.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I was honestly being appreciative, how dare you call me a bad human. There cannot be winners without losers. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Shorting doesn't make you a douchebag, trying to influence the share price in support of short investments does.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
IMHO the definition of a bad human is someone who shorts a company that is trying to do fundamental good for society and mankind.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Options can be mutually beneficial.
Call writer gets money now, Call buyer may get money in future.
If call buyer gets money in future, seller would have been better off not writing call, but both sides can benefit.
Gerardf
Active Member
Welcome to the forum
Of course getting FCF-positve will de-risk a lot. All here will agree. But as soon as that is a about to happen, SP will be much higher.
I think a lot of people here are considering what could happen in a next recession. My 2 cents...
Even in the worst recession people still buy cars, but the total number of cars sold will of course be lower.
Now keep in mind that Tesla is production constrained, not demand constrained. According to many that is also the case for the MS/MX, current production line(s) seem about maxed out at 120k / year.
But certainly for the Model-3 there is a HUGHE backlog that might get smaller, but will not disappear and Tesla will be able to sell every car no matter how quick it can build out Model-3 production next year and in 2019, even in a recession.
Same is true for GigaFactory, IMHO in a way every cell / pack that Tesla GigaFactories can produce, or even ramp production up to, in the next years is already sold in either TA or if needed delivered in TE. So even if the overall car market takes a 15% downturn, it might not hit Tesla sales that much, it would mainly slow down the aggressive growth plans.
And adjusting spending in a 15% downturn will be much easier for Tesla in such scenario than for Ford, GM, Toyota and the German car makers. Tesla can slow growth plans, but these companies will be in a LOT more trouble if their sales takes a 15% hit, as they will immediately will have to significantly reduce production, see lower revenues while a lot of their fixed costs will still have to be paid. Also those who are in the low cast segment will see a price war to keep as much as possible of the production running resulting in very low or even negative gross margins.
Of course, Tesla will still need to be able to pay the bills, but Tesla is agile and can reduce costs relatively quick. Next to that Elon is very resourceful in finding investors and in the worst case he will (again) ensure Tesla's financial survival.
If I could time a downturn, I would prefer to go cash and then reenter after the initial panic.. .
But in a sudden downturn I would rather be in Tesla than in many other shares.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I'm 120% in TSLA now. It just felt like risk/reward was tilted on the long side.
Huge majority of my options are DITM Jan 2019
Huge majority of my options are DITM Jan 2019
Gerardf
Active Member
Certainly true for those shorts willing to spread misinformation and FUD in order to profit from it.
Why 'Landmine-Filled' Tesla Could Implode Any Moment
Can we dare hope for another Spiegel bottom?
Why 'Landmine-Filled' Tesla Could Implode Any Moment
Can we dare hope for another Spiegel bottom?
Why 'Landmine-Filled' Tesla Could Implode Any Moment
as a single data point, over 51 months of about 60,000 miles of travel along the US interstates, Mid Atlantic to SW Florida, and interior states. I pass new car lots literally packed with unsold inventory of every type, entry level to luxury vehicles, 10's and 10's of thousands of unsold vehicles. in a recession that will be worse.Welcome to the forum
but certainly for the Model-3 there is a HUGHE backlog that might get smaller, but will not disappear and Tesla will be able to sell every car no matter how quick it can build out Model-3 production next year and in 2019, even in a recession.
Same is true for GigaFactory, IMHO in a way every cell / pack that Tesla GigaFactories can produce, or even ramp production up to, in the next years is already sold in either TA or if needed delivered in TE......
... in a 15% downturn will be much easier for Tesla in such scenario than for Ford, GM, Toyota and the German car makers. Tesla can slow growth plans, but these companies will be in a LOT more trouble if their sales takes a 15% hit, as they will immediately will have to significantly reduce production......
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Also, remember Tesla bought NUMMI for $42M in 2010. I wonder what gift the next recession will bring us.Welcome to the forum
Of course getting FCF-positve will de-risk a lot. All here will agree. But as soon as that is a about to happen, SP will be much higher.
I think a lot of people here are considering what could happen in a next recession. My 2 cents...
Even in the worst recession people still buy cars, but the total number of cars sold will of course be lower.
Now keep in mind that Tesla is production constrained, not demand constrained. According to many that is also the case for the MS/MX, current production line(s) seem about maxed out at 120k / year.
But certainly for the Model-3 there is a HUGHE backlog that might get smaller, but will not disappear and Tesla will be able to sell every car no matter how quick it can build out Model-3 production next year and in 2019, even in a recession.
Same is true for GigaFactory, IMHO in a way every cell / pack that Tesla GigaFactories can produce, or even ramp production up to, in the next years is already sold in either TA or if needed delivered in TE. So even if the overall car market takes a 15% downturn, it might not hit Tesla sales that much, it would mainly slow down the aggressive growth plans.
And adjusting spending in a 15% downturn will be much easier for Tesla in such scenario than for Ford, GM, Toyota and the German car makers. Tesla can slow growth plans, but these companies will be in a LOT more trouble if their sales takes a 15% hit, as they will immediately will have to significantly reduce production, see lower revenues while a lot of their fixed costs will still have to be paid. Also those who are in the low cast segment will see a price war to keep as much as possible of the production running resulting in very low or even negative gross margins.
Of course, Tesla will still need to be able to pay the bills, but Tesla is agile and can reduce costs relatively quick. Next to that Elon is very resourceful in finding investors and in the worst case he will (again) ensure Tesla's financial survival.
If I could time a downturn, I would prefer to go cash and then reenter after the initial panic.. .
But in a sudden downturn I would rather be in Tesla than in many other shares.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Everyone knows to buy the rumor and sell the news, but the opposite is also true. This is a perfect 'sell the rumor, buy the news' setup.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
there are plenty who believe that Elon is exploiting your sentiment... promoting a story over reality to keep propagating something that should have failed long ago as a business... and only increasing risk to retail shareholders. what do you say to this?... that they are 100% wrong?... Elon's notorious for blasting out completely impossible projections to the point where you guys actually have found ways of describing this in a positive way... just the other day someone posted how great it was for Elon to have got the stock raised up by making what in retrospect were completely false and inaccurate statements about 2017 possibilities with the M3... how then they were able to get funding... this in the real world is considered fraud... and in this world is equal to "a company that is trying to do fundamental good for society and mankind"...
there's a common saying here... "elon shoots for the stars and hits the moon"... well, that's great, unless the stock is priced for the stars... and the CEO keeps you thinking the stars are the target... and the stock retraces to the moon. yep... that last part hasn't happened yet... but if/when it does... will you still think so highly of this company?
Perhaps this will elicit a “Thar she blows” or maybe “Abandon ship, women, children and billionaires first” comment from Mr Musk during the ER.
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