2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[elasalle]

No Elon eloped with amber to mars.

Actually .. Elon Musk is 'definitely on the prowl' for Dakota Johnson | Daily Mail Online is the scoop

 

[ram1901]

Can't believe I did that. Entered incorrectly on my calendar and got a pop up reminder. Thanks...

 

[JRP3]

I've been trolling here for quite a while.

Actually you've been "lurking". Trolling is posting easily debunked nonsense in the hopes of creating fear or just disrupting the board. We already have a few of those wasting our time. Welcome to the board.

 

[D-egg-O]

Some one posted a while back about what a "Care Bear" is ... any one have a link to it?

 

[dc_h]

Longer term (24-36 months) I do think the common gets wiped out, but not for the reasons any of the bears think.

Appreciate non-hostile alternative opinions. Please elaborate.
I’m a long term bull. I see continued problems for established automakers to ramp up EV and their saving grace is the lead time for Tesla to get past 1mm run rate. I think if Tesla can pass 1mm before rest of Europe/ USA / Japan hit 1mm, they’ll have a pretty impressive and solid base to crush legacy industry through the 2020’s. Interesting slow motion race with years to go.

 

[KLC13]

It's tomorrow.
Events & Presentations | Tesla Motors

Come on why did you have to tell him/her that so quickly. We could have had some more fun

 

[dc_h]

No Elon eloped with amber to mars.

You haven’t Heard all new Tesla’s come only in shades of gray?

 

[TrendTrader007]

I agree.
Though it's worth noting that you can't say someone who bought at 380 and now regrets it is a long ....
I mean unless it doesn't cross back those 380 in the next 12 months or so

i bought TSLA at $385 and have zero regrets and am super long

 

[TrendTrader007]

So 5 for 5, the seasonality chart consistently shows October SP lower than prior month. This, plus news of end of quarter window dressing that we hear from mutual funds at this time makes this info a tradeable nugget. And now that I've put these into words and with my luck, it will likely reverse course next year!
View attachment 257466

this is an extremely informative chart and consistent with my belief that November and December are slated to be big up months
thanks for the research

 

[erthquake]

Some one posted a while back about what a "Care Bear" is ... any one have a link to it?

I think you might be being tongue-in-cheek, but in case not:

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

 

[TrendTrader007]

OK on the eve of Tesla announcing its earnings as well as a new month beginning tomorrow I’m going to give some serious but quick commentary from a technical standpoint. First of all look at the monthly chart of Nasdaq composite this looks extremely bullish and is about to make a big Bollinger break out on monthly chart it is extremely unlikely that we will see a correction in the month of November or December the market itself is poised to go much higher over the next two months which is one of the best seasonal time to be long In the stock market. I would expect a high beta stock that Tesla is to handily outperform NASDAQ composite over the next few months not mentioning the possibility or I would try to set a probability of a major short squeeze that could happen anytime

 

[TrendTrader007]

Notice the long 2 1/2 to 3 year flat base for Tesla almost a flat saucer like pattern not exactly a cup with handle but quite close and the last two months came in lower volume this looks like a coiled spring ready to go up big-time and my belief is that starting November 1 we will see a huge uprising SP we can see a melt up of epic proportions that will strike fear into the hearts of unwary shorts. We could very easily clear $400 in November with no problems at all
I’m extremely bullish

 

[TrendTrader007]

Short term I see $350 to $363 post ER At least
Could get even better

 

[TrendTrader007]

My best guess is $500 by December 31, 2017
I’m positioned accordingly
I couldn’t possibly be any more long than I am currently
That’s it
Looking forward to a super exciting November
Can’t wait for ER tomorrow
Call me anti-Einhorn/ anti-Chanos

 

[justin w]

My best guess is $500 by December 31, 2017
I’m positioned accordingly
I couldn’t possibly be any more long than I am currently
That’s it
Looking forward to a super exciting November
Can’t wait for ER tomorrow
Call me anti-Einhorn/ anti-Chanos

350-400 is my estimate at the end of this year.

 

[SPadival]

Did anyone notice the after hours price!!

So next stop as per myusername should be $666

 

[GoTslaGo]

That’s half of 666!!!

Oops! You said that!

 

[DGates]

 

[EinSV]

Those shorts were saying the same things about longs buying at $380 a few weeks ago

Worth repeating: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered

As far as TSLA is concerned, might be good to check in with Whitney Tilson about that.

And Jim Chanos.

And David Einhorn.

And Andrew Left.

And good ole Mark Spiegel.

And .... Etc. Etc. Etc.

Undoubtedly there are quants and traders who are making money off TSLA, including via short bets.

But the hardcore shorts and short hedge funds (including the so-called smart ones) are getting crushed shorting TSLA and have been for years.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

My thinking is just simply, if Tesla isn't FCF positive by the time the bond markets start to move, the downside risk of being cut off is quite severe. Dilution in a macro bear market...

Tesla could also become cash flow positive sooner than anyone thinks and in effect self funding.

The canary in the coal mine would be if any of Tesla's current bond issuance start trading substantially under par.

I agree completely that the biggest threat to Tesla is macroeconomic conditions, not other automakers. I think their products are more recession-proof than most other autos, but Tesla is still financially vulnerable. Achieving a high-volume, high-profit Model 3 ramp would eliminate most of that vulnerability. We’re clearly not there yet, but I think that’s a case of when, not if.

I think you’ve identified a very useful indicator of Tesla’s access to credit. I’d love to see Tesla funding growth through retained earnings— it would make my value-investing heart sing— and never need to access the markets again. But the opportunities for growth are enormous, so I think TSLA is going to remain risky for at least a few more years.