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erthquake
Active Member
I want my three minutes back. Good lord that was awful. It's a click bait headline disguised as satire to CYA. This is the opposite end of the market euphoria spectrum. Gawd I wish I had more money to invest.
bdy0627
Active Member
Possibly. I don't think it will be choppy for that long. 3-6 months is my guess.
everman
Member
I’ve fought the good fight, and finally received the top medal!
bdy0627
Active Member
Wow, just took a peak over there. It's freakin ugly. They are just a wee-bit upset about the Jonas PT update. Spiegel and his buds have been spanked by TSLA so hard over the last few years. Their response: get back in line for another whippin. Talk about insane. Someone needs to take their meds...
everman
Member
I know, right? They are foaming at the mouth! They’ve found their leader of the week too, Chuck Grant at WSJ. They’ve hoisted him onto their shoulders and are parading him around!
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Yes, a higher appreciation for Tesla’s rapidly growing EV charging and support infrastructure as a differentiator led to this raise in price target:
Raising our Tesla price target to $379 from $317. We take this opportunity to modestly de-risk our long-term forecasts in our DCF models of both Core Tesla (the car company) and Tesla Mobility (the automated transport services company). In our view, the importance of infrastructure in achieving EV penetration levels increases over time with the prevalence of larger and more sophisticated populations of EVs in use. We reflected Tesla’s infrastructure spend in our very high levels of capital expenditure, which we have long forecasted in our model ($55bn of accumulated Tesla capex between 2014 and 2030). There are two key drivers to the step-up in our Tesla price target. First, we increased our Core Tesla exit EBITDA multiple to 10x from 9x previously, adding $33 to our target. Secondly, we reduced our WACC assumption for Tesla Mobility to 13% from 15% previously. This change aligns our WACC of Tesla’s Mobility business with the WACC that we have long used for Core Tesla. The implied terminal value PE of Tesla Mobility following this change rises to 10.3x from 8.6x previously. To provide further context, in recent weeks, several auto companies and suppliers globally have re-rated as they unveiled their plans to adapt to or even benefit from the widespread disruption of the industry. We have not made changes to our earnings forecast at this time. Reiterate EW.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Lol that certainly is a unique distinction
Way to go Everman!
Holy moly, so I dove into the twitter-verse to see for myself and smeagle, tweedermeyer, and bertel schmidt all have me blocked. Why would they care about such lowly user like me?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
There is a fairly substantial note from MS, with explanations for the raise based on comparing Tesla multiples to multiples of companies operating in or eying the mobility market as well.
Plus a separate report on EV Infrastructure:
Our deep dive analysis of EV infrastructure with our capital goods, electric utilities and metals & mining teams has enhanced our appreciation around the importance of EV infrastructure throughout the ecosystem. Tesla targets 10k superchargers globally by the end of 2017 (6,246 as of Aug 17), and we estimate that there will be 15k destination chargers by the end of the year. Throw in Tesla’s 149 wholly-owned-and-operated service centers, 301 stores and galleries globally and the world’s largest battery factory (Gigafactory 1 in Reno), and we estimate that Tesla has allocated nearly $8bn to the infrastructure of manufacturing, servicing and charging its vehicle fleet. Please see our report published this evening: EV Infrastructure: Tesla's Footprint Maps a $2.7Tr Industry Problem.
Too long to copy the entire note here...
Attachments
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I can only assume you've been making comments on their articles, and they can't take constructive criticism.
Tweedermeyer responded to one of my tweets the other day...
D-egg-O on Twitter
Must have struck a nerve.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Love this. Conveniently timed as well.
Tesla Model 3 Production Hurdles Trigger Anti-Tesla Hyperventilation (Round #17)
Tesla Model 3 Production Hurdles Trigger Anti-Tesla Hyperventilation (Round #17)
I am still trying to figure out what has fundamentally changed from late last week, other than having a bit more clarity on M3 news that was already out, having a slight delay on the semi reveal that is insignificant (and having more info that the semi is better than any speculation currently out there), and that Tesla is pursuing possibly game changing opportunities to provide power to millions. We do have what is in my view fake news from Charley Grant (who I am shocked still has a job with his very un-journalistic like Tweets - he clearly seems to have a bias that appears to be based on emotion more than anything), three ambulance chasing law firms desperately looking for investors through their “investigations” so that they can try to extort money in essence from the very shareholders they seek to represent (perverse isn’t it?), and Mark Spiegel (an infamous and very vocal short) and his followers seemingly losing their minds through Twitter storms after Jonas seems to have ruined their grand vision of driving down the stock at least partially through the two aforementioned channels.
Again, bottom-line is not much has fundamentally changed from last week when the stock seemed to be heading back towards its early September levels. I have to imagine the shorts were freaking out when the M3 number induced stock decline was not holding up. They took another run today on what was a Holiday driven market. Jonas may have thrown a wrench in their plans, and now they are simply losing it (just check out Grant’s and Spiegel’s Twitter pages).
Again, bottom-line is not much has fundamentally changed from last week when the stock seemed to be heading back towards its early September levels. I have to imagine the shorts were freaking out when the M3 number induced stock decline was not holding up. They took another run today on what was a Holiday driven market. Jonas may have thrown a wrench in their plans, and now they are simply losing it (just check out Grant’s and Spiegel’s Twitter pages).
Choppy but higher.
Elon's management style is non traditional. There are probably people who would bet today that a rocket can't land on a raft... There will always be a lot of longs that don't participate in the market. So pricing is determined by manipulators.
They profit on the swings and will take money from anyone that is using stop losses.
So as long as there are a lot of longs, and the stock is attracting new money, the manipulators will swing the price to take money from the new people. Choppy as long as these two things are true.
That puts the shorts at about 64% of the TSLA trading today. I'm not sure I've seen higher. Guess who did the majority of the selling today? You certainly wouldn't have seen much in the way of shorts covering today.
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