2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[GoTslaGo]

FWIW, Model 3 was a vesting requirement for Tesla Execs. It meant an additional 250k shares are now likely being made available on the market. They had approx 1 million shares awarded (total, see below) with quarter tranches. Wouldn't be surprised if we are looking at the result of some of those shares hitting the market (approx 1 month out from the release).

That being said, there is no vesting bonus for the Semi. The final vesting bonus comes with 30% GM (don't recall the time frame).

To add share equivalence per convertible note:

2018 Notes: 8.0306 shares/$1000 note....approx 660 million borrowed initially = 5,300,196 shares
2019 & 2021 Notes: 2.7788 shares/$1000 note...................2.3 billion borrowed = 6,391,240 shares
2022 Notes: 3.0534 shares/$1000 note..........................977.5 million borrowed = 2,984,698.5 shares

Let's not forget Executive employee and CEO performance shares (p 23/24):

Exec employees = 1,073,000 shares (1/2 have already been met and awarded), next 1/4 will be available with Model 3

CEO = 5,274,901 shares (7/10 have been met, not all awarded yet). But these are not likely to be sold into the general market.

Most of the 2018 notes are out in the market. I believe there's only around 50-60k left not converted (couldn't help to notice that Fidelity owns a bunch of them in their convertible bond fund...).

 

[TrendTrader007]

Speaking of which, where is TT007?

love the model X that AB and i picked up for our LLC this weekend
will post pics later if Anne Boleyn approves

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Yeah, I saw that too;
I find myself in rare agreement with Trump
'I love the uneducated'

It's more of the gullible that believes in this stuff. Too often my FB feed have well educated people sharing obvious click bate articles. It's a big problem. Educated people are becoming... dumb? This hold true with Tesla FUD articles and the general public holding it true. My rule of thumb is 99.9999% of these articles are fake / click bates.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Okay TSLA is forming a cup with handle on daily
Lost in Translation: shorts r screwed
Stock will take off big time any day now

 

[EnzoXYZ]

love the model X that AB and i picked up for our LLC this weekend
will post pics later if Anne Boleyn approves

Do I assume Anne Boleyn is the queen of England or name of the car? Apologies for my ignorance.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Here's another pic showing the same in more specific detail
Basically TSLA is pulling back to lure in the unsuspecting short sellers into a bear trap before it ramps up big time
Papa Fox is right tomorrow is likely to be a good day
AB and I love our new model X after driving this car for the last 3 days I'm totally convinced that you e got to be a super idiot of the highest category to short this stock
I've put everything on the line on this stock for months now and I sleep like a baby
TSLA longs will reap huge fortunes over the next several months to years
I'm super long and super strong

 

[TrendTrader007]

Do I assume Anne Boleyn is the queen of England or name of the car? Apologies for my ignorance.

she's the owner of the car and my boss
would love to post her pic with the car if she approves

 

[SpaceCash]

she's the owner of the car and my boss
would love to post her pic with the car if she approves

You have a boss??

 

[TrendTrader007]

You have a boss??

lol yes of course

 

[Curt Renz]

It's more of the gullible that believes in this stuff. Too often my FB feed have well educated people sharing obvious click bate articles. It's a big problem. Educated people are becoming... dumb? This hold true with Tesla FUD articles and the general public holding it true. My rule of thumb is 99.9999% of these articles are fake / click bates.

With a little encouragement from the Koch brothers and those whose interests they represent.

 

[AnneBoleyn]

Oh for heavens sake. I am boss of nobody. TT007 tells me what to do 24/7 and I do it. Just like post said photo.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Despite all the sell off the SP is steadily rising with higher lows and volume is sub par except on days like today and 8/2 when it found support
TSLA most definitely wants to run higher and run over the unsuspecting shorts

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 242956 Oh for heavens sake. I am boss of nobody. TT007 tells me what to do 24/7 and I do it. Just like post said photo.

the car rocks! can't wait to buy Model S P100D and drive it on Autobahn in Ludicrous mode

 

[SpaceCash]

View attachment 242956 Oh for heavens sake. I am boss of nobody. TT007 tells me what to do 24/7 and I do it. Just like post said photo.

Gr8 Looking car!! And it could be the beer talking but this exchange has been quite endearing

 

[Todd Burch]

 

[doctoxics]

So what do you suspect this is? Can't really make sense of this. The only logical explanation I can come up with is the big rotation (from growth to value) since AMD is also down dramatically. The illogical explanation is can come up with is due to the solar eclipse, since all the solar stocks are down big. There has been articles about the solar eclipse will affect the solar pannels, etc.

The sell-off of TSLA could be in anticipation of a general market sell-off and not wanting to be in the stocks that will likely go down the most.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Aside from the macro influence, it seems that TSLA is in consolidation (symmetrical triangle) mode after the upward trend that started in December of last year. The interesting part is that Semi event on 9/28 might come just at the right time for a breakout to above $400. Also interesting that the triangle support line coincides with $325 in the next day or two, which also happens to be point of the closing of ER gap. I think that if there will be neutral macro background in the next month or so we might very well see this breakout playing out. Macro is a big IF.

 

[vgrinshpun]

On the musings coming from the midst of apparently scared out of their wits Uber bro's, I think that Uber is a sitting duck to be obliterated by Tesla. Think about it - they have experienced and abused pool of drivers which hate Uber but can't do anything because there is no clearly superior alternatives. Imagine that Tesla comes with their Tesla Network, which perhaps starts with Level 3 autonomy, so requires driver's presence (with the reduced workload), but has articulated plan to transition in time to full autonomy. So Uber drivers have an option to jump ship, which would require buying Tesla Model 3 (or Y) cars, with an option of growing the business from the car driver for hire to owner of a car (or two, or three...) for hire. I think that the defection of Uber drivers to become Tesla driver and then mini-fleet owner-operators could be viral, and cataclysmic event for Uber.

Tesla will benefit two fold. First, there will be pent-up demand for Model 3 and Y. Second it will attract ready and experienced pool of people for Tesla Network, with the potential of explosive growth of the Network.

EDIT: Remember Elon saying that it is not Tesla against Uber, but people against Uber. I believe that above describes what he really meant.

 

[Johann Koeber]

the car rocks! can't wait to buy Model S P100D and drive it on Autobahn in Ludicrous mode

Congrats.

You will love it.

Beware though: you will be surprised how fast you can deplete the battery going 250 km/h!
And how fast the car limits power because of heating issues (battery or motor).

 

[Cobos]

Congrats.

You will love it.

Beware though: you will be surprised how fast you can deplete the battery going 250 km/h!
And how fast the car limits power because of heating issues (battery or motor).

Actually after my vacation on the Autobahn with our S85D I was suprised how little it used cruising in 180km/h. I seem to recall it was just above 200Wh/km. Acceleration up from 80km/h to 180km/h on the other hand took a lot of power. But steady cruising seems to be VERY efficient in a Model S. The X in question is probably not so good due to higher wind resistance.

To slightly keep this in line with topic. Tesla gets too little credit for how long its real high speed range is compared to other EVs, and for most that's when it matters.

Cobos