2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[D-egg-O]

View attachment 242956 Oh for heavens sake. I am boss of nobody. TT007 tells me what to do 24/7 and I do it. Just like post said photo.

Congratulations! Couple of questions to satisfy my curiosity.
- What did you name it?
- Which seat configuration did you choose? 5 seater, 6 seater, old 7 seater, or new 7 seater?

When SP reaches 500, we too will get an X.

 

[Intl Professor]

FWIW made a mouse nuts purchase at $340.25. Could not easily follow Mitch's kind recommendation to get J19s at $340 bet when stock goes to $330 since our wealth manager has no expertise in options--me too. Wealth manager was helpful in urging purchase in another account than my idea to replace his bad bet on JAZZ where free cash was since that money is earmarked for inheritance. I did get his attention since I wanted to buy Tesla outright with the freed Jazz money and maybe, just maybe, I've convinced him they should unload GILD too. Sorry for personal details, but N of one for retail investor informed by you TMC experts.

So what if I miss $150 on a $17000 purchase? As Musk would say, gnat nuts.

Again, thanks to Mitch for his kindness and courage in responding to my needs. I was really touched by his pm several months ago in similar vein.

 

[D-egg-O]

I have a feeling TSLA might drop further...today is an excellent bounce for the market with NASDAQ being up almost 1% and yet TSLA is in the red territory. If it cannot even go up on a day like today, I am certain that it will not go up when the broad market is down. Again, unless there's some updates on the ramp or any other positive news.

There's also absolutely no TSLA news. This makes the SP more susceptible to being manipulated. Good news on Model 3 production ramp will not care what the macros are doing. Just my $0.02.

 

[bdy0627]

I have a feeling TSLA might drop further...today is an excellent bounce for the market with NASDAQ being up almost 1% and yet TSLA is in the red territory. If it cannot even go up on a day like today, I am certain that it will not go up when the broad market is down. Again, unless there's some updates on the ramp or any other positive news.

Very successful short activity this morning. But, shorts will start to cover now after opening positions to create negative sentiment this morning. I bet that combined with the oversold situation will cause a steady rise through the day. What shorts successfully did was turn this into a "meh" kind of response to several pretty big down days in a row. That sends a message to the market that TSLA may not be ready to move up with volume yet. If the stock rises nicely throughout the day, that will alter this message, indicating there are buyers ready to step in despite the shorting activity.

 

[bdy0627]

There's also absolutely no TSLA news. This makes the SP more susceptible to being manipulated. Good news on Model 3 production ramp will not care what the macros are doing. Just my $0.02.

Agree. TSLA is not trading closely with the NASDAQ except for big down days. Problem is, the next few weeks may hold some big down days for the market. Or maybe not...

 

[Intl Professor]

The last time I purchased TSLA was 16 months ago, at under $250. The wealth manager went nuts then as recently when I wanted to sell Jazz. Does anyone here think we shall see $250 again short of a very devastating earthquake or untimely heart attack? My hope is this purchase at $340 is the new bottom.

 

[Todd Burch]

The last time I purchased TSLA was 16 months ago, at under $250. The wealth manager went nuts then as recently when I wanted to sell Jazz. Does anyone here think we shall see $250 again short of a very devastating earthquake or untimely heart attack? My hope is this purchase at $340 is the new bottom.

No, I don't think we'll see $250 unless there is a significant driving event.

 

[jhm]

$340 is a great price for accumulation. I says not expecting it to go this low, but it can pay to be opportunistic.

Your Car Is Now Worth Less Than You Think

This may also be in play. If the market thinks autos are in a glut, the first order response is to downright Tesla. But then with reflection, this lull may simply signal the obsolescence of ICE. Car buyers will delay new purchases until they can get the right EV for them. So the second order response is to buy Tesla for making ICE obsolete.

So the share price could swing wildly as the market sorts out auto glut vs. ICE obsolescence. Once the market is settled on ICE obsolescence, Tesla moves decisively above $400.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

$340 is a great price for accumulation. I says not expecting it to go this low, but it can pay to be opportunistic.

Your Car Is Now Worth Less Than You Think

This may also be in play. If the market thinks autos are in a glut, the first order response is to downright Tesla. But then with reflection, this lull may simply signal the obsolescence of ICE. Car buyers will delay new purchases until they can get the right EV for them. So the second order response is to buy Tesla for making ICE obsolete.

So the share price could swing wildly as the market sorts out auto glut vs. ICE obsolescence. Once the market is settled on ICE obsolescence, Tesla moves decisively above $400.

Could you please identify the time period by which you expect the market to settle on ICE obsolescence?

Even a range would be helpful in putting your prediction in perspective.

 

[AlMc]

$340 is a great price for accumulation. I says not expecting it to go this low, but it can pay to be opportunistic.

Your Car Is Now Worth Less Than You Think

This may also be in play. If the market thinks autos are in a glut, the first order response is to downright Tesla. But then with reflection, this lull may simply signal the obsolescence of ICE. Car buyers will delay new purchases until they can get the right EV for them. So the second order response is to buy Tesla for making ICE obsolete.

So the share price could swing wildly as the market sorts out auto glut vs. ICE obsolescence. Once the market is settled on ICE obsolescence, Tesla moves decisively above $400.

Agree with your logic/projection. The issue certainly is how/when does the market sort this out.
The sector rotation cotld last a day(s), weeks or months,
Not doubting that long term hold shares purchased at $340 is not a good idea.
If one is ultra bullish with 'trading' TSLA money then J19s or taking a chance and waiting for J20s Leaps might be a consideration.
Even though having trading TSLA money may make one think I am an ultra bull, I am still a bit cautious with my trading basket of money at this point.

 

[AlMc]

I think that the long holder buyers are far more important than long traders for higher and higher support to stock price. They don't mind waiting and missing on buy at lower SP for confirmation of good M3 ramp before jumping in.
What do you think is a good M3 ramp?

IMO, a 'good' ramp would be one that minimally meets EMs initial numbers. The market's last memory of a new Tesla vehicle ramp was the X which most would agree was badly delayed. The '3' should be much better but until the market 'sees' it progrssing it will not respond with a TT007 predicted rise.

 

[dw4ngg]

The last time I purchased TSLA was 16 months ago, at under $250. The wealth manager went nuts then as recently when I wanted to sell Jazz. Does anyone here think we shall see $250 again short of a very devastating earthquake or untimely heart attack? My hope is this purchase at $340 is the new bottom.

You should fire your wealth manager

 

[racer26]

You should fire your wealth manager

Really, I don't understand why so many people seem to trust a 'wealth manager' or other sort of investment advisor. What makes them any different than the countless analysts we all routinely make fun of for being hilariously wrong? I don't trust anyone but myself with my money.

 

[Navin]

Thank you for the gift of being able to get back into my options that I sold right before earnings. Incredible. Now locked and loaded. Won't sell so easy next time.
Once m3 hits production levels - STF

 

[Lessmog]

Agree with your logic/projection. The issue certainly is how/when does the market sort this out.
The sector rotation cotld last a day(s), weeks or months,
Not doubting that long term hold shares purchased at $340 is not a good idea.
If one is ultra bullish with 'trading' TSLA money then J19s or taking a chance and waiting for J20s Leaps might be a consideration.
Even though having trading TSLA money may make one think I am an ultra bull, I am still a bit cautious with my trading basket of money at this point.

Sorry, I get lost here. I would agree that long term hold purchased at 340 is a good idea, but that seems to go against what you are actually saying. Confusion results.

The LEAP into options may be too big for some (me included) but a few more shares reasonably bought can be a good investment of monies one does not direly need to use and can afford to jeopardize.

 

[AlMc]

Sorry, I get lost here. I would agree that long term hold purchased at 340 is a good idea, but that seems to go against what you are actually saying. Confusion results.

The LEAP into options may be too big for some (me included) but a few more shares reasonably bought can be a good investment of monies one does not direly need to use and can afford to jeopardize.

Sorry, my wife says I live in a permanently confused state, but I digress.

I have divided my TSLA investment money into three baskets. Basket one has core shares, bought long ago. Basket two has my 'trading shares/Leaps. Basket three cash/weekly or shorter term options.

So, I was describing my trading basket. I sold TSLA shares from this basket yesterday and plan to use the proceeds to fund either Leaps or trading shares moving forward.

$340 is not a bad entry point IF one is looking to not touch those shares for a minimum of two years, IMO

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I wouldn't be surprised if Elon tweeted out a Model 3 production update in the next two to four weeks.

 

[MitchJi]

1. View attachment 242946 Okay TSLA is forming a cup with handle on daily
   Lost in Translation: shorts r screwed
   Stock will take off big time any day now

   TSLA is going to be pretty flat for approximately the next 3-4 months.

Edit Addition:
Fixed typo, changed 5 to 4 and added approximately.​

 

[bdy0627]

NASDAQ is on fire today. Wow. Shorts still appear to me to be able to control TSLA to some degree. Buyers appear cautious. My concern in the short term is that the NASDAQ will likely be volatile, dropping as quickly as it rises. With TSLA not doing much on the up days and likely going down on the down days, the stock may lose more than it gains. My guess is that buyers will not be as cautious as the stock goes down further. It would then rebound strongly if macros are stable enough.

 

[bdy0627]

1. 
   TSLA is going to be pretty flat for the next 3-5 months.

I thought you were expecting $400 by end of year?